Four points from three games is a good start for Leeds United but it is no guarantee of safety come May.
Most Leeds United fans would have taken a four-point August before a ball was kicked last month and history shows it to be a promising early haul - but those same fans know all too well it is no guarantee of safety.
It’s cliché to describe a 38-game Premier League season as a marathon and not a sprint but four points from three games is certainly a good starting pace. Leeds have not come sprinting out the blocks at the risk of flagging early but neither have they tripped over untied shoelaces.
Daniel Farke’s side are 12th and firmly in the chasing pack at this early checkpoint, the lowest of four teams on equal points due to an inferior goal difference. That came as a result of their 5-0 thumping at the hands of Arsenal but two home games have produced two strong performances.
Leeds dominated Everton on the opening night and back-to-back wins since suggest David Moyes’ side will be no pushover this season. Similarly, Newcastle United were equal to Aston Villa in the same way Farke’s men were equal to them during last month’s goalless draw.
And so the feeling throughout this first international break is that four points is a steadily-impressive start. But is it a positive indicator of eventual safety come May?
It’s certainly an indicator Leeds plan to put up more of a fight than last season’s relegated trio. Ipswich Town were the quickest to reach four points during the 2024/25 campaign, doing so in six games after a run of four consecutive draws, while Leicester City needed seven fixtures. Rock-bottom finishers Southampton needed 10 games, hitting the four-point mark in early November.
The relegated trio from 2023/24 suffered a similar fate too, with Luton Town and Burnley needing six and seven games respectively to reach four points. Sheffield United hit that particular milestone at the 11th opportunity.
Looking back a little further, teams that were eventually relegated needed, on average, eight games to register their first four points of the campaign, with only two of the last 15 bottom-three outfits hitting that mark in three games or fewer. This is where Leeds fans might argue against any kind of assurance, however.
Leeds United are their own lesson after fast Premier League start
Both occasions came during the 2022/23 campaign and, as luck would have it, Leeds were the only team to hit four points in fewer games. They needed just two, an opening-weekend 2-1 victory over Wolves followed by a 2-2 draw at Southampton the following weekend. Jesse Marsch’s side even went on to win against Chelsea, taking their three-game tally to seven points.
Historically, that starting pace would almost certainly lead to safety come May but those early points mean little if they are not backed up down the line. Leeds followed that 3-0 win over Chelsea with an eight-game winless streak. They then went 10 games without a victory after squeezing two wins over Liverpool and Bournemouth in between.
And therein lies the lesson for Farke and his Leeds squad, one they will already be well aware of. Taking four points from three games means nothing if you don’t then take enough points from the next 35 to survive. For the Whites, it is about avoiding those long and miserable winless runs that allow others to pull away.
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Leeds return from the international break with a trip to winless Fulham this weekend, the first of three September games in which they will hope to at least match August’s four-point haul. Farke’s side then travel to likely relegation rivals Wolves before hosting Bournemouth.
Back-to-back meetings with Burnley and West Ham offer another opportunity for points in October before things get tricky through November and into the festive period. That is the period Leeds fans might look at with worry of a winless streak.
Leeds will hope by then there are enough points on the board to avoid slipping into the abyss, but 2022/23 is still fresh in the memory, evidence of how quickly a good start can decline. For Farke and this current squad, it is about maintaining that August form, not resting on it.
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