Fantasy Challenge is back and players from Manchester United and Manchester City earn double points this weekend. Ahead of FPL Challenge Gameweek 4, here are the best picks, captaincy options and predictions from Opta Analyst.
The international break is over and FPL Challenge returns for Gameweek 4. This week’s point-scoring twist leans directly into one of English football’s most storied rivalries.
The Manchester derby is the headline act of the weekend in the Premier League and, with players from both City and United earning double points, managers are presented with a tantalising opportunity to load up on players from either side of the divide.
The question, of course, is how many of them should we squeeze into our squads, and which ones look worth the gamble?
As always, we dive into the Opta data and Player Match Predictions to shortlist the best picks for FPL Challenge GW 4 as we chase those green arrows.
On paper, an away trip to Manchester City looks a daunting prospect for Manchester United, but there are plenty of reasons to be bullish about the visitors’ chances.
Pep Guardiola’s side have stumbled in the opening weeks of the season, losing two of their first three Premier League matches for the first time since 2004-05. Their three points is also the fewest ever collected by Guardiola across his first three league games of a campaign.
The last time City began a season with three defeats in their opening four matches was way back in 1995-96, a campaign that ended in them being relegated. Nobody is seriously suggesting a repeat this time around, but that shows just how unsettled they look.
What’s more, home advantage has also been somewhat irrelevant recently in this fixture. Since 2015-16, the home team has ended on the winning side in just six out of 20 Premier League meetings in the Manchester derby (D4 L10). If history is any guide, United players may not be quite as risky a play as the fixture suggests.
Let’s dive into our suggested picks, then.
Goalkeeper
Alisson: Burnley vs Liverpool (A)
It’s hard to feel confident about picking either goalkeeper from two Manchester clubs. There’s the possibility that both City and United hand out Premier League debuts to Gianluigi Donnarumma and Senne Lammens. Only twice before outside of Matchday 1 have two clubs introduced new goalkeepers in the same Premier League game, underlining just how unusual this could be.
Donnarumma would be the more appealing punt of the two, but given the uncertainty around both goalkeepers’ place in the starting lineup, and the form of the defence in front of them, we prefer the proven option of Alisson.
Liverpool’s No. 1 faces Burnley at Turf Moor, where his side carry the second-highest win probability of the weekend (69.0%) in the Opta supercomputer predictions, and the bookmakers’ best clean sheet odds.
Defenders
Riccardo Calafiori: Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest (H)
Arsenal remain one of the most solid defensive units in the Premier League. They’ve conceded just 2.2 expected goals – a figure only Newcastle can better (1.6) – despite already visiting both Liverpool and Manchester United away from home. They’ve also given up a league-low 0.07 xG per shot.
For those reasons, Riccardo Calafiori looks a strong option as Arsenal take on Nottingham Forest and their new manager Ange Postecoglou at home. Installed at left-back, Calafiori’s attacking involvement has been eye-catching so far, with the Italian leading all Arsenal players for both xG (1.43) and shots (seven).
Riccardo Calafiori open-play touches - Arsenal 25-26
Maxence Lacroix: Crystal Palace vs Sunderland (H)
Maxence Lacroix is another we are happy to trust again. The Crystal Palace defender has been a model of consistency, hitting or narrowly missing the defensive contribution threshold in all three games so far. He was one contribution away from another two bonus points against Aston Villa, while he also chipped in with an assist for Palace’s third goal.
Crystal Palace (71.6%) have the highest win percentage of any team in our predictions this weekend, while Sunderland have the lowest win probability of any side at 12.1%. The fixture looks good enough for Lacroix to potentially deliver at both ends once again.
Marcos Senesi: Bournemouth vs Brighton (H)
Consistency has also defined Marcos Senesi’s season to date. The Bournemouth defender is currently the third-highest scoring player in his position, and one of only three players to have collected the maximum two points for defensive contributions in every game.
Bournemouth come into a home game against Brighton on the back of two clean sheets, conceding just 2.9 xG (fifth-best in the division) and 30 shots (fourth-best) thus far.
Rayan Aït-Nouri: Manchester City vs Manchester United (H)
The main appeal about City’s Rayan Aït-Nouri over our other options is that he’s eligible for double points. He appears to be nailed on as Guardiola’s first-choice left-back, and his opening-day nine-point haul against Wolves showed what he can do.
In the two games he’s played the full 90 minutes so far this season, Aït-Nouri has either hit (15 vs Wolves) or come very close (9 vs Brighton) to hitting the defensive contribution threshold.
He has, however, returned just one point across his last two matches, which has been very underwhelming.
Strangely, despite moving to a clearly superior team in Man City, his attacking involvement is down compared with his Wolves days. So far this campaign, he’s averaging just 0.9 touches in the opposition box per 90, compared with 3.0 last season.
Midfielders
Bruno Fernandes: Manchester City vs Manchester United (A)
Bruno Fernandes is the standout midfielder ahead of the Manchester derby. He leads the league in chances created (12) and open-play chances created (eight), and remains United’s penalty taker.
Even off the ball, his defensive output has been strong enough to hit the bonus threshold in two of his three appearances, missing by only one contribution in the other.
With the added weight of double points, Fernandes is a strong candidate for captaincy.
Bryan Mbeumo: Manchester City vs Manchester United (A)
We also think Bryan Mbeumo is a solid option this weekend. Despite a rocky start, United actually lead the league with 58 shots across three games – 14 more than any other side. It’s their highest tally at this stage since 2017-18.
Mbeumo himself has taken eight of those shots, level with Fernandes and Matheus Cunha, and we’re confident he’ll fire off more attempts in this game.
His ability to run in behind offers particular value against City’s high line. He has already made 54 runs in-behind this season, the most of any player, and also leads his side in expected assists per 90 (0.34).
Bryan Mbeumo runs in-behind - Premier League 25-26
We did also consider Cunha, but he is a doubt for the derby after withdrawing from Brazil duty with a hamstring problem.
Oscar Bobb: Manchester City vs Manchester United (H)
A sneaky option this week could be Oscar Bobb, who has quietly established himself as City’s preferred right-winger. He has only one assist to show for his efforts, but he’s created the most chances of anyone in Guardiola’s squad so far (4).
Given that United have looked open down their left side, Bobb could see a lot of involvement in City’s attacks on Sunday.
Manchester United - attacking third touches against
Liverpool Midfielders vs Burnley (A)
Of course, the Liverpool midfielders remain dependable options, with Mohamed Salah and Cody Gakpo both well placed to capitalise on a good fixture against Burnley. The only lingering question is whether Alexander Isak’s potential debut adds a layer of rotation that complicates Gakpo’s minutes, though it seems unlikely the Swede will start at Turf Moor given his lack of action and team training this season.
Forwards
Erling Haaland: Manchester City vs Manchester United (H)
Even amid City’s indifferent start, it remains impossible to overlook Erling Haaland. He continues to top the league’s attacking metrics, leading all players for goals (3), expected goals (3.86), and shots (14). His record in this fixture is formidable too, with nine goal involvements (6 goals, 3 assists) in five Manchester derbies.
Our prediction model expects him to take close to three shots and projects him at 0.66 goals – the second-highest tally of any player this weekend. He is also coming into the game fresh off scoring five goals and providing two assists in Norway’s 11-1 thrashing of Moldova on Tuesday.
Viktor Gyökeres: Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest (H)
The only man rated more likely to score than Haaland is Viktor Gyökeres. Our model forecasts him as the leading goalscorer candidate (0.73 goals) in GW 4, while also projecting him for the highest totals for both shots (3.66) and shots on target (1.62).
Yoane Vissa: Newcastle vs Wolves (H)
Finally, Yoane Wissa is worth highlighting as a strong alternative if he gets the nod for Newcastle. Wolves have conceded eight goals already this season, tied for the most in the league, while only Burnley (6.72) have given up more expected goals (5.70). They remain a good team to target.
Wissa’s predicted goal output of 0.57 sits just behind Gyökeres, Palmer and Haaland, making him a good differential pick compared to the more obvious selections. He also scored in DR Congo’s 3-2 World Cup qualifier defeat to Senegal in midweek.
Opta Analyst’s Team Reveal: Gameweek 4 FPL Challenge Picks:
FPL Challenge Gameweek 4 Picks
Premier League Stats Opta
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