The goal of this regression-centric space is to tell fantasy football folks which of their borderline fantasy options are running particularly hot or particularly cold, to use a little technical language.
Every week during the regular season I’ll highlight players whose usage and opportunity doesn’t quite match their production. That might look like a running back scoring touchdowns at an unsustainable clip or a pass catcher putting up big stat lines while working as a rotational player in his offense. It could also look like a pass catcher seeing gobs of air yards and targets without much to show for it. Things of that nature.
👉 Some stats I’ll focus on weekly in the Regression Files: Rush yards over expected, targets per route, air yards, air yards per target, red zone targets, green zone targets, quarterback touchdown rate, and expected touchdowns. A lot of this regression stuff, as you probably know, comes down to touchdowns — specifically, predicting touchdowns (or lack thereof).
I’ll (mostly) ignore every-week fantasy options who you’re going to play whether they’re running hot or cold, or somewhere in between. My goal is to make this column as actionable as possible for all fantasy formats. Telling you to keep playing Joe Burrow during a cold streak doesn’t strike me as actionable.
Let’s start today with Kayshon Boutte. You may be Boutte-curious after his six-catch, 103-yard outburst in Week 1 against the Raiders.
It didn’t come out of nowhere for Boutte: Over the final three weeks of the 2024 regular season, he was 12th in receiving yards and 20th in wideout receptions. He dominated air yards in the New England offense over that brief stretch, and that continued unabated in Week 1, as Boutte took in a team-leading 39 percent of the team’s air yards. Boutte was targeted on a not-hateful 20 percent of his routes against Vegas while running a route on 76 percent of Drake Maye’s drop backs. Boutte had a first-read target rate of 24 percent, the highest on the team, according to Fantasy Points Data. It’s a fine little profile.
Strong performance from Kayshon Boutte yesterday. Caught 6 of 8 targets, with 5 going for first downs (the other one was half a yard short on 2nd & 15).
Created easy windows for Drake Maye to put the ball in by winning at the top of his routes. pic.twitter.com/bjes8Dmuzn
— Alex Barth (@RealAlexBarth) September 8, 2025
The Patriots, shockingly, were 9 percent over their expected pass rate in Week 1. Only the pass-heavy Chiefs had a higher neutral pass rate than the Pats. Probably that won’t keep up if Mike Vrabel has anything to say about it (he does). Even so, Boutte looks like a usable if high-variance WR3/4 in 12-team formats for as long as he eats up air yards in the New England offense.
📈 Positive Regression Candidates
Omarion Hampton (LAC)
Did Hampton look slow and sluggish on Friday against the Chiefs? Yeah, he did. Was he impressive in any way? No, he wasn’t.
The workload was good though. Hampton handled 15 of the Chargers’ 16 running backs rushes and logged 25 pass routes on 45 LA drop backs to just six for Najee Harris (Hampton was targeted twice). It’s not a hateful profile if it holds up into Week 2 and beyond.
What’s gone largely unsaid in the days after the Bolts’ upset of KC is that the Chiefs might have the best run defense in football. They were near the top of every rushing defense metric in 2024 and they snuffed out the Chargers’ rushing attack in Week 1, forcing OC Greg Roman to hold his nose and pass the ball at the NFL’s fourth highest neutral rate in the season’s opening week.
The metrics were quite ugly for Hampton. His -1.67 rush yards over expected per attempt was the second worst of the week; only Ken Walker was worse. Sixty-five percent of Hampton’s rushing yards came after first contact, suggesting he didn’t have much room to operate against an elite Kansas City front seven. Don’t freak out and bench the rookie in Week 2.
Elic Ayomanor (TEN)
The rookie was deeply unlucky in Week 1 against a stellar Broncos defense. If his head coach were even halfway competent, Ayomanor would have been credited with a long catch if an incorrect incompletion had been rightly challenged and overturned. Nevertheless, Brian Callahan persists.
Ayomanor was a full-time player in the Titans offense in Week 1 and accounted for a team-leading 48 percent of the team’s air yards (he had 133 total air yards). Cam Ward targeted his fellow rookie on 28 percent of his routes, a tick higher than Calvin Ridley’s target per route rate. That Ayomanor had two catches for 13 yards is what we’ll call variance — the bad kind.
Things probably won’t get tougher for Cam Ward and the Titans than they were in Week 1. It was a nightmare spot and the Titans played accordingly. Don’t dismiss Ayomanor in 12-team leagues with multiple flex spots. He profiles as a high-variance weekly play who could one day turn air yards into actual yards. You never know.
Jameson Williams (DET)
The good news: Williams led the Lions in pass routes in their sleepwalk loss to the Packers on Sunday. The bad: He was targeted on a mere 12 percent of his pass routes and had four catches for 23 scoreless yards. As a heavy Jamo drafter, I’ve never been sadder.
I’m more than a little worried that Jared Goff simply can’t support a wideout like Williams. Goff in Week 1 averaged a miserable 4.4 air yards per attempt, the second lowest mark of the week. That’ll work for D’Andre Swift and Sam LaPorta and Amon-Ra St. Brown, but it won’t do much for Jamo as a dangerous downfield threat.
Against Green Bay, Jamo averaged 5.6 air yards per target. Maybe that’ll work if he can break short receptions for long gains. I’m queasy about the whole thing, but one would think the Lions will make a concerted effort to involve the guy they just signed to an $83 million extension.
Tyrone Tracy (NYG)
Tracy’s Week 1 line (24 scoreless rushing yards, two catches for 11 yards) might make you recoil in horror. But consider his usage before you start sobbing in public.
The one thing we couldn’t get out of Tracy in 2024 — third down usage — was what we got in Week 1 against Washington. Tracy played nearly every third down for the Giants and logged a route on 30 of 45 New York drop backs. Cam Skattebo ran three routes.
Tracy had nowhere to run against Washington: He had the week’s second lowest rate of rush yards before contact. Tracy led the Giants with four goal line snaps and dominating short yardage work. His Week 1 wasn’t nearly as ugly as it looked in the box score, that liar.
Russell Wilson (NYG)
You should know I take no pleasure in highlighting Russ in this space. It is my constitutional duty, however, to tell you that Wilson in Week 1 against the Commanders led the league in inside-the-ten pass attempts (8) and completed exactly one of them for -2 yards. Bleak stuff.
This is just to tell you that the Giants were ultra pass heavy in the red zone last week and Russ ran ice cold. The fourth most inaccurate passer of the week, Russ was among the most aggressive QBs, with an aggressive throw rate of 19 percent. Only six quarterbacks had a higher rate. Do with this information what you will.
📉 Negative Regression Candidates
Aaron Rodgers (PIT)
The chip on Rodgers’ shoulder ebbs and flows depending on how unfairly he’s been treated by various teams and players and media outlets. On Sunday against his former mates, that chip was never bigger. Rodgers shredded the Jets, who forced the grizzled veteran to sign with them and left him no choice but to make roster and play-calling decisions that proved utterly disastrous. Poor Aaron, as always.
Rodgers went for 244 yards and four touchdowns against the Jets in the Steelers’ Week 1 win. This is where I tell you Rodgers had a 14 percent touchdown rate and ran hotter than the dang sun in the red zone. Rodgers turned three inside-the-20 attempts into three touchdowns against New York. Like I said: Hot.
Rodgers was top-10 in Week 1 accuracy and second to last in air yards per attempt (4.4). This will likely work well for Rodgers’ short-area options, guys like Jaylen Warren, Kenneth Gainwell, Jonnu Smith, and, weirdly, DK Metcalf. It won’t often produce fantastic fantasy QB lines though. Rodgers is a fine superflex option. Just don’t get cute in one-QB formats.
Calvin Austin (PIT)
You’ll notice a few Steelers in this week’s negative regression space. Almost everything Arthur Smith’s offense did against the Jets was unsustainable. So it goes.
That includes Austin going for 70 yards and a touchdown on six targets while running a route on 73 percent of Aaron Rodgers’ dropbacks. Here’s the unsustainable part: Austin accounted for 67 percent of the team’s air yards against the Jets.
There is an out for Austin and the other Pittsburgh pass catchers. Smith’s offense in Week 1 had the eighth highest neutral pass rate. They were just 1 percent under their expected pass rate. That sort of balance — if it holds — could mean quite a bit for all-around target volume in the Steelers offense in 2025.
Jaylen Warren (PIT)
Don’t be fooled by Warren’s Week 1 receiving score. His usage against the Jets was hideous. Warren ran a route on nine of Rodgers’ 34 drop backs; Kenneth Gainwell logged 16 routes and had seven rushes to Warren’s 11. Warren has the Najee role while Gainwell has something resembling last year’s Warren role. The monkey paw curls once again.
Gainwell is going to be a thing in this Pittsburgh backfield, whether we like it or not (we don’t). Warren, per Pro Football Focus, is one of the game’s worst pass protectors, a boon for Gainwell’s playing time. Warren did, however, see all three goal line snaps in the Steelers backfield. So he has that going for him, which is nice.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA)
I want to thank my gracious Rotoworld Football Show cohosts for trying — and failing — to talk some sense into me this summer as I cast doubt on whether JSN could exceed his redraft ADP. RotoPat and Kyle tried their best. I simply refused to listen.
Smith-Njigba could set records this season if his Week 1 usage holds up even a little bit. I’ve never seen anything quite like it in 12 years of doing fantasy analysis: JSN on Sunday against the 49ers was targeted on an unreal 62 percent of his pass routes and took in 90 percent of the Seahawks’ air yards. I don’t know how that’s possible. I had to triple check it.
There were questions about whether or not Jaxon Smith Njigba could lead the #Seahawks offense as their WR1 (including playing X WR out on the boundary, WINNING outside)
Well, can confirm...DEFINITELY
BALLER play and throw by Sam Darnold toopic.twitter.com/wmGlCRsORL
— Jordan Silveira (@JordanTSilveira) September 7, 2025
Obviously you’re starting JSN every week no matter what. I just wanted to share these numbers with you because nby any measure they are astounding. Probably his targets per route and his air yards share will drop in the coming weeks. Seattle’s hugely run-heavy ways — they were 14 percent below their expected pass rate against the Niners — could limit overall volume too. Sam Darnold logged a grand total of 23 attempts on Sunday. Seattle passed the ball at a 33 percent clip in neutral situations.
JSN should be fine though. His domination of the Seattle passing attack will continue until morale improves.
Noah Fant (SEA)
Don’t fall for Fant’s Week 1 performance against the Browns. He ran a route on 45 percent of Joe Burrow’s drop backs and turned five targets into 26 yards and a touchdown. Fant was targeted on nearly 39 percent of his routes — a comically high rate for a rotational tight end like Fant.
Until and unless Mike Gesicki misses time in 2025, Fant should remain on waiver wires in all formats.
Jayden Reed (GB)
Reed suited up in Week 1 and played through his lingering foot injury, posting 45 yards and a touchdown on three grabs. It was a nice-enough stat line. You’re not allowed to be excited about it, per the analytics.
Reed ran a route on about half of Jordan Love’s drop backs against the Lions and was targeted on 42 percent of those routes — more than double his career target per route rate (TPRR). Though the Packers weren’t necessarily run-heavy in Week 1 — they had the tenth highest neutral pass rate on the week -- they remain a low volume offense that will prove tricky (maddening) for fantasy purposes. As soon as Reed’s TPRR falls, and unless his route participation spikes, he’s not going to be very much fun in 12-team leagues this season.
Dylan Sampson (CLE)
Sampson looked an awful lot like an old-fashioned PPR scam in Week 1 against the Bengals. The rookie caught all eight of his targets for 64 yards, to go along with 29 rushing yards on 12 attempts.
Love how Dylan Sampson executed this pivot route. Got in and out of it so fluently like a WR and the difficult catch plus getting some YAC after to add on to it. The young man had a day in his debut. pic.twitter.com/XtenBpdwMM
— Cam White (@RouteUniverse9) September 9, 2025
A dash of context: Jerome Ford easily led the backfield in routes (25) while Sampson logged 15 routes. I’m confident in saying Sampson’s 57 percent target per route rate won’t hold up long term. In fact, it could plummet as soon as this week with the arrival of Quinshon Judkins. Maybe the Browns’ pass-heavy ways — Cleveland had the league’s fourth highest neutral pass rate in Week 1 — could keep Sampson afloat as a deep-league option. Just beware that his pass game usage was totally unsustainable in Week 1, and that Ford appears to be the primary pass-catching option in the Browns backfield.
Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI)
As a longtime MHJ skeptic, I’m down pretty bad after Harrison’s 71-yard, one-touchdown Week 1 outing against the Saints. Or am I?
Harrison, bigger and slower than ever, caught his short score but was targeted on a meager 18 percent of his pass routes. His average depth of target remained awfully high (13.3), meaning he’s still not getting the sort of easy button looks that generate reliable fantasy production. Unfortunately he’s still catching passes from Kyler Murray, one of the most inaccurate downfield passers in football.
Nothing has changed for Harrison. He’ll once again be reliant on splash plays and touchdowns. Beware tabbing MHJ as an every-week play in 10-team formats.
Ricky Pearsall (SF)
Probably you have to start Pearsall in 12-team formats because you drafted him as your WR3 or WR4. That’s OK. It’s my job to tell you he sorta kinda got away with it on Sunday against Seattle. Pearsall was targeted on a less-than-stellar 18 percent of his routes — the same as Jauan Jennings — and averaged 27 yards per reception thanks to a 45-yard gain. His 20 air yards per target isn’t exactly what we’re looking for among reliable WR2/3 types.
Injuries to Jennings and George Kittle could leave Pearsall as the last guy standing for Brock Purdy. Targets per route doesn’t matter so much in that scenario.