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The report below identifies fantasy-friendly and unfriendly NFL offenses while breaking down possible outcomes from each week’s offensive matchups. Highlighted statistical variables include neutral game pass play and run play rates, success rate, expected points added (EPA) per play, shifts, motion and play-action pass play usage, offensive play volume and pace.
Each week’s fantasy-friendly and unfriendly defensive matchups are detailed in a weekly partner piece on the fantasy-friendly defenses. NFL offenses and defense will occasionally be detailed in one or both partner pieces. Standout wide receiver matchups may be more closely examined in the weekly “3 WR/CB matchups to target and avoid” series. Team-level target share and rushing share are frequently mentioned below. Datasets for both can be found in the attached links.
Neutral game run play rate and neutral game pass play rate
Offensive neutral game run and pass play percentages among NFL teams in Week 1:
Cleveland Browns rookies, tight end Harold Fannin Jr. (nine targets and a 60.4 PFF receiving grade) and running back Dylan Sampson (eight targets and 92.4 PFF receiving grade) are among 11 NFL tight ends and running backs to earn eight-plus targets in Week 1. The Baltimore Ravens coverage unit allowed the 15th-most EPA per play (0.228) among NFL defenses to tight ends and running backs, tied for the fourth-most receptions (13) and allowed the sixth-most yards per reception (11.8). Baltimore’s own offense ranks first among NFL offenses in EPA per play (0.299). PFF's scores and schedule lists Baltimore as an 11.5-point home favorite. The expected game script signals a fantasy-friendly environment for Cleveland’s passing-reliant offense and Baltimore’s featured skill position players.