In winning 41-40, someone who didn’t watch a minutes of the Buffalo Bills’ Week 1 win over the Baltimore Ravens might believe that Josh Allen and company roared out of the gate. That, or perhaps the defense feasted against an overwhelmed Ravens offense.
Instead, it was the Bills who were overwhelmed for all but the first drive and last five minutes of game clock. Hanging in there just enough in the middle portion of the game and risking points on two-point tries (all unsuccessful) meant that Buffalo needed magic from Allen in the closing minutes.
While it may be difficult to get a feel for the Bills’ offensive identity yet, there were a few plays that piqued our interest as it relates to new concepts and looks to keep in the back of your mind as you watch the rest of the season unfold. Let’s dive in…
If it ain’t broke don’t fix it
Offensive coordinator Joe Brady began his second full season at the helm with a massive bang, hanging 41 points (most in the league) on the Ravens and he showed off a few extra wrinkles that bode well for the team’s success in 2025.
Buffalo was fairly balanced in the first half with 17 drop-backs to 11 rushes, and three of those passes coming during the last minute of the second quarter. The game script went out the window with the Bills trailing big in the second half (21 passing plays in the fourth quarter alone) but Brady made it clear he insists on using the running game just as much as last season when the game is close.
What about key player roles?
It was a promising sign that wide receivers Keon Coleman (groin) and Khalil Shakir (ankle) were both a full-go on Sunday, with Coleman playing 88% of the snaps and Shakir logging 71% in a game where the offense ran a whopping 85 plays.
Tight end Dalton Kincaid’s snap count was a bit worrisome as he was only on the field for 50% of the snaps and saw less playing time than tight end Dawson Knox, despite Buffalo needing to air the ball out for the entire second half. What is promising is that Kincaid ran routes on 34 of his 43 snaps (79%) and was highly effective when targeted (four catches on four targets). Still, his limitations as a blocker will keep him from a full-time role and dampens the variety of plays Buffalo can run while using their heavier packages.
Running back Ty Johnson (28 snaps), fullback Reggie Gilliam (12 snaps) and rookie tight end Jackson Hawes (16 snaps) all proved themselves as prominent players in Brady’s schematic plans. Johnson almost tripled running back Ray Davis’ playing time on offense and was the change-of-pace back for passing situations, cementing Ray Davis as a bona fide backup who may only see the field more if something happens to James Cook. Gilliam saw his snap share increase slightly over the last month plus playoffs of 2024 and continued it on Sunday, featuring as a lead blocker for Cook.
Hawes was raved about all summer and showed up in a big way with his 29 yard reception during the comeback win and he should make it easier for the Bills to let Knox go in the offseason if they already trust him in the fourth quarter of these games. Hawes has taken Alec Anderson’s role of the extra lineman in jumbo formations and his ability to be a receiver is extremely valuable to making those formations more versatile.
Wide receivers Tyrell Shavers and Elijah Moore both got a small bit of run with the offense but neither have earned the trust to be legitimate weapons just yet. Moore assumed the Curtis Samuel role often used in motion (including an end-around rush) and 11 of his 12 snaps were in three wide-receiver sets. Shavers was not given much of an opportunity as a receiver, blocking on 11 of his 17 plays, but he earned the Bills’ highest Pro Football Focus grade for run blocking of any non-lineman.
As for concepts and offensive identity?
It’s unlikely that 85 plays and 59 drop-backs happen again this season, but the first half showed off what Brady wants this offense to be in 2025. Three tight end sets (sometimes with a fullback), two running backs next to Allen and some motion from Kincaid were all some fun wrinkles.
Buffalo ran 21 personnel at the 10th-highest rate in 2024 but were below average (17th) running the ball out of this alignment. With this play above, the Bills ran a look with Cook and Coleman on the far side of the formation, forcing the defense to account for the space they could use. This concept shows a lot of trust in Shavers to be the lead blocker. Kincaid also did a fantastic job taking his man out of the play and Johnson didn’t have to work to gain 17 yards.
Here above, a mini-jumbo package if you will with Hawes and Gilliam at tight end and Kincaid in the slot next to them running an orbit motion. Fun, new and exciting! Kincaid froze Kyle Hamilton, and Tyrell Shavers was once again given the trust to be a stand-alone blocker. I would love to see this concept used with Kincaid in Gilliam’s spot and Shakir, Moore or Samuel where Kincaid is to really bind the defense and create some better RPO opportunities. Buffalo will also need to use Shavers in the passing game before it becomes too predictable that his being on the field = run play.
This time all three Bills tight ends were on the far side of the formation, with Kincaid once again in the slot rather than playing inline like Hawes and Knox. Blocking was executed perfectly and could have led to a TD if Cook broke the run out wide once he reached the second level. Coleman here as the lone wide receiver is much more of a threat than Shavers and some deep play-action bombs could be in store out of this look.
What does it mean?
The Bills’ passing game can easily be boiled down to Josh Allen doing Josh Allen things, so highlighting those aspects feels moot when the whole NFL ecosystem is raving about the reigning MVP. We all know what Allen brought to the table in the opener, and what his presence does for Buffalo’s chances of winning any game.
Buffalo’s run game should be much more indicative of the team’s success in games they lead or are close throughout. These funkier formations give a peek into Joe Brady’s brain for what he envisions will be the way the offense closes out games in the future.
Hawes and Shavers seemingly earned the good standing of the coaches quickly and, once they get more comfortable playing real snaps in the offense, both could see their run-game abilities utilized in run-heavy sets. Dalton Kincaid looks back to full health but I would like more plays drawn up specifically for him if they’re going to motion him so often.
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