For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 2 NFL picks. The team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
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Commanders at Packers (-3.5): My "NFL fanbases that are smelling themselves" power rankings:
Commanders: They had their first encouraging season in a long time in 2024, and are (understandably) overrating how good their team is.
Packers: Now that they have Micah Parsons, they think they're winning a Super Bowl.
One of these fan bases is going to get a dose of reality on Thursday night. My guess is that it will be the Commanders.
One matchup that I think could be particularly troublesome for the Commanders is rookie RT Josh Conerly against Parsons. Conerly, the Commanders' first-round pick this year, had never played RT until this season, so he is tasked with rewiring his brain and learning how to pass set on the other side. That can be easier said than done. Some guys can do it, piece of cake. Others, like Eagles fans saw with Andre Dillard, for example, could not. But I imagine the Packers are going to line up Parsons against Conerly all night on obvious passing downs.
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Giants at Cowboys (-5.5): The Cowboys have won 15 of the last 16 matchups between these two teams, including sweeps each of the last four years.
Year At Cowboys At Giants
2021 Cowboys 44-20 Cowboys 21-6
2022 Cowboys 28-20 Cowboys 23-16
2023 Cowboys 49-17 Cowboys 40-0
2024 Cowboys 27-20 Cowboys 20-15
It doesn't even matter if Dak Prescott is available to play against the Giants, as Cooper Rush won two of those games.
Entering the season, it felt like the Cowboys were on a steep downward trajectory, while the Giants were maybe going to show signs of improvement. But the Cowboys played hard and were competitive against the Eagles Week 1, while the Giants looked like the same old trash in a non-competitive loss to the Commanders.
It would be silly to pick the Giants in this rivalry, especially as long as Brian Daboll and the Giants organization keep trotting out a cooked Russell Wilson.
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Patriots at Dolphins (-1.5): Early in the season, the Dolphins have a built-in advantage at home, where their sideline at Hard Rock Stadium is covered, and thus is substantially cooler than the opposing sideline, which is out in the sun.
Unfortunately, Miami looked like hot burning trash Week 1, as they got wrecked by the Daniel Jones-led Colts. I won't be picking them to win many games this season.
The Patriots didn't look much better, as they lost at home to the Raiders. I do believe in Drake Maye to some degree, so give me the Pats, I guess, with little confidence.
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Jaguars at Bengals (-3.5): It was ugly, but the Bengals got a divisional road win against the Browns on Sunday, when they have traditionally started slowly. The Jags are also 1-0, after easily handling the Panthers.
I don't love the Bengals' defense or their offensive line, but Joe Burrow and the Bengals' skill players should be enough to take down the Jags. I do think this game has sneaky upset potential, so beware in your survivor pools.
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Browns at Ravens (-12.5): Obviously, the Ravens have a lot more talent than the Browns, but these two teams have actually split each of the last four seasons. I was impressed with the Browns when they came to Philly for joint practices this summer, and they nearly beat the Bengals Week 1. I'm picking the Ravens in my survivor pool, but I also think that 12.5 points is way too big of a spread. I'll take the Ravens to win, obviously, but give me the Browns and the points.
For the gambling degenerates, I kind of like the idea of hedging this game. Take the Ravens in your survivor pool, and take the Browns money line for a big payout if things go very wrong.
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Rams (-5.5) at Titans: Cam Ward showed glimpses of talent, but the Titans offense did not look very capable of putting points on the board. I do think they have some nice pieces on defense, and will win some rock fights this year, but not this week against a Rams team that can score points.
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Bills (-6.5) at Jets: With a little luck, the Bills knocked off the Ravens Week 1, and are clearly Super Bowl contenders. But this line scares me. The Jets looked like a team capable of competing with good teams, and yet I still can't trust them, because, you know, they're the Jets. I'm just staying away.
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Bears at Lions (-6.5): This is a matchup between new Bears HC Ben Johnson and Jared Goff, the quarterback for whom Johnson formerly called plays. The Bears choked away a two-score lead Week 1 to the Vikings, but at least looked competitive. The Lions showed very little juice Week 1 against the Packers. I expect the Lions to get back to .500 with a win, but 6.5 points is a pretty big spread.
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Seahawks at Steelers (-2.5): The 49ers tried their hardest to give the Seahawks a Week 1 win last Sunday, but the Seahawks were adamant that they didn't want it. Meanwhile, the Steelers scratched and clawed their way to a tough road win over a surprisingly frisky Jets team. The Seahawks have very little to get excited about, and will probably lose a lot of games, while the Steelers once again look like a team capable of yet another winning record, followed by a quick exit in the playoffs.
05102049ersLogo2020
49ers (-3) at Saints: This line was originally 49ers (-7), but Brock Purdy is unlikely to play with a toe injury. He also has a left shoulder injury, but that is less serious. Mac Jones will start on Sunday if indeed Purdy can't go. The 49ers will also be without George Kittle for at least the next four games, as he was placed on IR. The Niners can probably weather those losses against what might be the worst team in the NFL, but what looked like a "money in the bank" win in New Orleans could be more of a struggle.
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Panthers at Cardinals (-6.5): It doesn't get much easier than the Saints Week 1, and Panthers Week 2. The Cardinals are poised to start 2-0 for the first time since 2021.
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Broncos (-1.5) at Colts: Bo Nix had some ugly moments in the Broncos' Week 1 win over the Titans, but ultimately it's the Denver defense that has people thinking they can be Super Bowl contenders. That side of the ball didn't disappoint, as they held Tennessee to 133 total yards and 2/14 efficiency on third down. Daniel Jones and the Colts offense looked surprisingly good Week 1 against a bad Dolphins defense, but the Broncos D is an entirely different animal, and I do expect Nix to play better.
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Eagles (-1) at Chiefs: In their Week 1 game against the Chargers, the Chiefs' offense looked sluggish in a way that I haven't seen since Patrick Mahomes has been their starting quarterback. Well, the Super Bowls against the Eagles and Bucs excluded, I guess. Every first down seemed like a struggle, and often necessitated some kind of unsustainable Houdini play by Mahomes. And for good reason. Mahomes aside, they don't have good players.
• The starting receivers are currently Hollywood Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Tyquan Thornton. You can find the NFL's starting receivers by team here. How many wide receiver trios would you take over the Chiefs'? Like.. 29? 30? All of them?
• The top two running backs are Kareem Hunt and Isaiah Pacheco. They combined to average 3.7 yards per carry in 2024. They got a combined 10 carries Week 1.
• The offensive line has shaky starters at RT (Jawaan Taylor) and LG (Kingsley Suamataia); and a rookie coming off a major knee injury at LT (Josh Simmons).
• Travis Kelce is still a good tight end, but no longer the elite player he once was.
This is a below-average offense, in my opinion, even with Mahomes running the show.
On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs' defense lost a couple of good starters in free agency in DT Travelle Wharton and S Justin Reid. They were replaced by lesser players in DT Jerry Tillery and second-year S Jaden Hicks.
It was funny to me to see the Chiefs open as favorites in this game (although the line has since shifted to the Eagles). Why would this team be favored? Because the Chiefs have Mahomes and Reid? Didn't we already learn that lesson seven months ago? The Eagles are simply a much better team, and they're going to win comfortably on Sunday. The Chiefs get a late garbage-time TD and two-point conversion to make the score look closer than it is, and the Eagles recover an onsides kick to seal the win. 28-25.
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Falcons at Vikings (-3.5): It took a little while, but J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings offense eventually found their sea legs Week 1 on the road against the Bears. I like their chances of taking care of business against this overrated Falcons team.
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Buccaneers at Texans (-2.5): The Texans are going to be a frustrating team to pick and pick against this season. One the one hand, they have an elite pass rushing duo in Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter, to go along with one of the best defensive secondaries in the NFL. On the other hand, that offensive line still sucks. They're capable of beating the best teams, and losing to worst ones.
With the Bucs, on the other hand, you kind of know what you're getting. They're going to play good defense, they have a decent enough O-line even with Tristin Wirfs out, Baker Mayfield has become a top 10-ish type of quarterback, and they have good skill position players. I just trust them to win games, and sure, I'll also take 2.5 points.
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Chargers (-3.5) at Raiders: This game is scheduled to kick off at 10 p.m. EST, which means my old ass won't see it. I like regular season stud Justin Herbert's chances of keeping his momentum going against a Raiders defense with a suspect secondary.
Survivor pick ☠️
I had a bad Week 1 picking games straight up (9-7) and against the spread (3-4), but for the first time in a couple years I advanced to Week 2 in my survivor pool. 🎉
So I have that going for me, which is nice. I'm not going to try to be a hero Week 2. Just take the Ravens and keep that momentum going.
Week 1: Eagles
Week 2: Ravens
• Picks against the spread: Browns (+12.5), Bears (+6.5), Steelers (-2.5), Broncos (-1.5), Eagles (-1), Vikings (-3.5), Buccaneers (+2.5).
• 2025 season, straight up: 9-7 (0.563)
• 2025 season, ATS: 3-4 (0.429)
• 2024 season, straight up: 205-80 (0.719)
• 2024 season, ATS: 62-44-3 (0.583)
• 2023 season, straight up: 178-109 (0.620)
• 2023 season, ATS: 50-48-6 (0.510)
• 2022 season, straight up: 176-107-2 (0.621)
• 2022 season, ATS: 50-50 (0.500)
• 2021 season, straight up: 179-105-1 (0.630)
• 2021 season, ATS: 46-40-1 (0.534)
• 2020 season, straight up: 169-81-1 (0.675)
• 2020 season, ATS: 45-37-3 (0.547)
• 2019 season, straight up: 160-107-1 (0.601)
• 2019 season, ATS: 42-35-3 (0.544)
• 2018 season, straight up: 173-94-2 (0.647)
• 2018 season, ATS: 41-36-2 (0.532)
• 2017 season, straight up: 181-86 (0.678)
• 2017 season, ATS: 36-32-2 (0.529)
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (0.644)
• 2016 season, ATS: 41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)
• Last 11 seasons, ATS: 455-384-22 (0.541)
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