The debut of George Pickens with the Dallas Cowboys was very mixed. While he did draw a big pass interference call and made some key receptions, his overall performance was a bit lackluster. He was penalized for an unnecessary roughness call on a block, and his lackadaisical route-running was evident. Dallas is still hopeful that Pickens can be a star No. 2 receiver, but Week 1 didn’t quite live up to expectations.
One of the big talking points regarding Pickens is his future with the team. Pickens is on the final year of his contract and is represented by the same agency (Athletes First) who handled the Micah Parsons contract situation. But how much will Pickens demand in free agency? And what is his current market? Luckily, there have been some recent deals to help set the market.
Pickens was selected in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft, and several receivers from that class have already received extensions. One recent player is Christian Watson of the Green Bay Packers, who was picked at No. 34 in that draft. Watson has dealt with a bunch of injuries and is currently rehabbing from a torn ACL, but was just given a one-year contract extension worth $13.25 million.
Christian Watson’s contract could help the Cowboys extend George Pickens
Pickens has appeared in 11 more games than Watson and has nearly double the receiving yards. And as the season goes along, that gap should get wider as Watson will likely sit out most of the year. So we should consider $13 million a year the absolute floor for Pickens in free agency next year, assuming he stays relatively healthy.
But there was another deal last week with a 2022 draft pick that might help set the ceiling. Jameson Williams of the Detroit Lions signed a three-year extension worth up to $83 million with $67 million guaranteed. While the full numbers haven’t been released yet, this deal will kick in after the 2026 season and will tie him to Detroit until after the 2029 season.
The new extension will pay Williams $27.6 million per year starting in 2027. But with the fifth-year option exercised in 2026, it means that Williams will actually make $24.6 million over the next four years. And again, it’s worth mentioning that these are the “reported” numbers and that total is always inflated compared to the actual number.
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Pickens has actually been much more productive than Williams during their NFL careers, but Williams has missed time due to injuries and a suspension. But the league values Williams more, as Pickens was traded for just a third-round pick a few months ago.
It’s worth mentioning that Garrett Wilson is another player from the 2022 draft who has received a new deal. But at $32.5 million a year, that is a number that just doesn’t make much sense unless things really turn around for Pickens in 2025. Wilson is the much better player and his overall stats clear Pickens' numbers by a good amount despite very poor quarterback play.
Pickens will likely earn a contract somewhere between Watson and Williams’ deal, but his play this year will determine if he can get $20+ million a season from the Cowboys or another squad. The market for Pickens will be fascinating considering he was off “multiple team’s draft boards” in 2022 and there wasn’t a huge demand for him this offseason in the trade market.
But if the Cowboys want to retain Pickens, we should expect his yearly salary to be in the $20-22 million range per season. And if the year doesn’t go as planned, he could be forced to take a one-year, prove-it deal, much like Watson just did for Green Bay. But with so few quality receivers expected to hit free agency next year, maybe Pickens will surprise us and command more than anyone anticipates.
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