Unai Emery will certainly fancy Aston Villa’s chances of competing for the Europa League this season.
The Villans underwent a sensational run in the Champions League last term, and although Emery was subject to criticism, his side almost completed an incredible comeback in the 5-4 aggregate loss against eventual winners Paris Saint-Germain.
Marcus Rashford was integral to Emery’s resurgence during the second leg at Villa Park, and despite exiting the competition in the quarter-finals, none could undermine Villa’s efforts in Europe.
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Aston Villa emerged as the surprise package in Europe’s elite competition as they finished inside the top eight ahead of the likes of Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, and Manchester City.
Unai Emery looks on during a Premier League clash between Aston Villa and Crystal Palace
Photo by Harry Murphy – AVFC/Aston Villa FC via Getty Images
However, the Villans missed out on qualification to this year’s competition on the final day of the Premier League season and will now compete in the Europa League.
And now, Emery has learned the probability of Villa going all the way this year, just like Tottenham Hotspur did in May.
Aston Villa are the favourites for the Europa League
According to the Opta Analyst supercomputer, Aston Villa are the favourites to lift the Europa League trophy in Turkey.
The Villans stand a 21.6% chance of winning the competition, 8.8% more likely than the second most likely team, AS Roma, and 10.3% more likely than Nottingham Forest.
Emery has endured a tough start in the Premier League this season. The Spaniard has failed to win any of his opening three games, culminating in a crushing 3-0 loss against Crystal Palace at Villa Park, wherein Matty Cash should have been sent off.
Indeed, Villa must overturn their fortunes domestically before the side can truly be considered the favourites to win Europe’s second-tier competition.
However, the atmosphere in the West Midlands is positive, TBR Football reported that Villa convinced Harvey Elliott to leave Liverpool on deadline day, who joined fellow arrival Jadon Sancho before the end of the transfer window.
Therefore, Aston Villa will boast an improved squad heading into the opening Europa League clash against Bologna on 25 September. Even without the summer additions, the squad is more than capable of progressing deep into the competition.
Aston Villa are expected to dominate the Europa League
As revealed in the supercomputer’s predictions for the league phase, Villa are expected to be the main contenders to win the trophy from the first whistle.
Emery is predicted to lead Aston Villa to the top of the league phase table before embarking on a journey that is expected to end with the Villans lifting the trophy.
Rank (2025/26 Europa League league phase) xPoints 1st Top 8 Playoff Eliminated
1. Aston Villa 17 25% 80.2% 18.8% 1%
2. Lyon 15.7 12.6% 66% 31.2% 2.8%
3. Roma 15.2 10.5% 59.9% 36.1% 4%
4. Nottingham Forest 15.1 9.9% 59.6% 36.2% 4.2%
5. Lille 14.9 8.8% 58.1% 37.2% 4.6%
Statistics provided by Opta Analyst.
Nottingham Forest are also expected to comfortably qualify for the knockout stages of the competition, but not ahead of Lyon or Roma.