Where will the Manchester derby be won and lost on Sunday? We pick out six areas of the game that could prove crucial as Manchester City host rivals Manchester United.
The first Manchester derby of 2025-26 takes place on Sunday, with both teams nursing some early-season wounds.
After throwing away a lead at Brighton last time out, Manchester City have lost two of their first three games of a Premier League season for the first time since 2004-05, before the Sheikh Mansour revolution began.
Manchester United got their first win of the season just before the international break, but they needed an arguably controversial 97th-minute penalty to get past Burnley. That result followed an otherwise mixed start to the campaign, with any positives from an impressive display against Arsenal wiped out by the dismal EFL Cup exit to fourth-tier Grimsby Town.
So, which of the rivals can put the motivation of a Manchester derby to good use this weekend? Here, we look at the factors that could decide Sunday’s meeting.
Would a United Win Even Be That Much of a Shock?
Well, yes.
Given this derby will pit the team who came third last season and invested more than £150 million in new players in the summer against the side who finished 15th and despite also spending plenty, clearly still have all kinds of issues, City are understandably the favourites. The Opta supercomputer, quite rightly, gives the hosts a 65.6% chance of victory.
But United are capable of springing a surprise, particularly in this fixture. They are responsible for 25% of all of Pep Guardiola’s home Premier League defeats as City manager, having beaten him at the Etihad four times (4/16), including a dramatic comeback win last December.
man city 1-2 man utd xg race (2)
Away wins are common in this fixture in general. Since 2015-16, the home team have won just six out of 20 Premier League meetings between United and City (D4 L10). The only fixture to see more away wins in that time is Crystal Palace vs Liverpool (12).
Whatever the venue, United have done well against City of late. They come into this one on a four-game undefeated streak in all competitions against their rivals, a run that includes their famous FA Cup final victory in May 2024.
Meanwhile, Guardiola has made his worst ever start to a league season (three points from a possible nine). City look eminently beatable. According to premierinjuries.com, they could be without as many as 10 first-team players after Omar Marmoush sustained a knee injury on international duty with Egypt.
We won’t go as far as defying the supercomputer and calling a United win probable, but they’ve won derbies when they’ve looked far less likely to than they do this weekend.
City’s Poor Form Is Nothing New
But wait! There’s more bad news for City.
Their bad start to this season may not be all that surprising. Their poor form has been going on for a while.
Looking at the Premier League table based on the last 38 games – the length of a season – City would be fourth with 65 points, some 19 points off the leading team in that time, Liverpool (84).
In fact, looking at a 38-game rolling average for Premier League points, this is the lowest City’s has been since November 2016, when Guardiola was just 11 league games into his new job. Much of their 65-point average back then was down to a poor run under previous manager Manuel Pellegrini in his final season with the club.
Man City 38-game points average
During his time in England, Guardiola has lost 49 of his 345 Premier League matches (W247 D49), but 22% of those have come since the start of last November (11). A defeat in this game would mean he has taken the second-largest number of games to lose 50, behind Sir Alex Ferguson (367), but given he had lost only 38 as recently as 10 months ago, he won’t be very happy to lose so convincingly to Fergie.
United would love to bring up Guardiola’s half-century here.
What About Reasons for City to be Positive?
It feels utterly bizarre to be this far into a preview of a home Manchester derby for City and still be yet to mention reasons for them to be optimistic. The truth is, though, that despite the many omens that might suggest United could win, the aforementioned Opta supercomputer prediction gives a much better reflection of who is likeliest to come out on top.
For all of their problems, City are still by far the better side. Only a few weeks ago, they were sweeping Wolves aside 4-0 with no problem at all and everyone was talking about how great a force they’d be this season. (Or was that just us?)
They’ve had two poor results against Spurs and Brighton since, but they also still possess one of the most talented squads in Europe, packed full of players who will surely come to life soon enough.
The Premier League table doesn’t look too pretty at the moment. Heading into the weekend, they are down in 13th after two losses from three. But the expected points table paints a rather more positive picture.
Our expected points model uses expected goals data to determine how likely every match was to finish with any given result. Each match is simulated 10,000 times based on the quality of the chances, and the expected points for each team are then calculated based on the proportion of simulations they win/draw/lose.
The xG data from City’s games suggest they have been unfortunate to pick up just three points. In fact, had all Premier League games this season finished in line with xG, City would be fourth.
Premier League expected points table
City have underperformed compared to xG at both ends of the pitch in 2024-25. Erling Haaland, fresh off the back of scoring five goals in Norway’s win over Moldova, will surely help fix things in attack before long.
At the other end, the arrival of an exceptional goalkeeper might help sort things out.
Goalkeepers Under the Spotlight
There has been a great deal of change in goal for both of these teams of late. The only goalkeeper on either team’s books with any experience in a Manchester derby is Stefan Ortega, and he probably won’t even make City’s matchday squad.
With André Onana off to Trabzonspor on loan, United head to the Etihad with the unconvincing Altay Bayindir likely to start, and the newly-signed and totally unproven Senne Lammens as his back-up.
For City, the legend that is Gianluigi Donnarumma has been signed from PSG to replace the legend that is Ederson.
Goalkeepers in Manchester
Donnarumma and Lammens could therefore both make their debuts in this game. Excluding MD 1 games, there have only been two games in Premier League history in which both clubs have given a debut to goalkeepers: Nottingham Forest (Andy Marriott) vs Spurs (Kevin Dearden) in April 1993 and Charlton Athletic (Darren Randolph) vs Liverpool (Daniele Padelli) in May 2007. Neither of those games carried anything like the magnitude of a Manchester derby.
It’s a huge game to be chucked into, though Donnarumma will be far more used to that kind of pressure than Lammens. In fact, Amorim is highly unlikely to risk fielding the 23-year-old.
Nonetheless, there will still be a great deal of uncertainty in goal for both teams. For City, Donnarumma represents a downgrade on Ederson – and probably even James Trafford – in terms of his ball-playing ability, so it will be fascinating to see how his presence affects their build-up play. United could be tempted to press him at every opportunity.
He may also be kept busy as well. United have had 58 shots in the Premier League this season, which is 14 more than any other side. It’s their most shots in the first three games of a season since 2017-18 (60).
At the other end of the pitch, the fact that Bayindir has more experience in England won’t inspire a great deal of confidence. He has committed an error leading to an opposition goal every 430 minutes in all competitions while playing for United; more often than any other Premier League goalkeeper since August 2023.
Goalkeeper errors by Premier League goalkeepers
Both goalkeepers will be under the spotlight. And one particular weakness of Bayindir’s could come under further scrutiny.
Will City Pile the Pressure On at Corners?
City aren’t exactly known for their set-piece prowess, but that is arguably just because of their other strengths and how extremely they focus on keeping the ball on the floor in open play. In fact, they were actually one of the more effective teams at corners in the Premier League last season.
They scored six goals from corners, which was only the ninth-highest total, but they were third for xG following corners, with 8.9. Only Arsenal and Crystal Palace fared better.
Predictably for a Guardiola side, a significant chunk of the positive work City did was from short corners, but even just looking at crossed corners, they ranked seventh for xG generated, with 6.8.
They may be tempted to cross a few more than usual on Sunday and put Bayindir under pressure at every opportunity, particularly given they scored from a corner in last season’s meeting at the Etihad. Bayindir has been incredibly shaky at corners ever since joining United, and that was something Arsenal took full advantage of on MD 1 of this season.
It won’t be their main focus, but they might put a little extra thought into their set-pieces ahead of this game.
Can United Exploit the Space in Behind City?
As Tottenham showed with their opening goal at the Etihad and then Brighton proved with their winner last week, there is space in behind City to exploit.
They push high up the pitch as much as possible. Only three teams have caught their opponents offside more times than City (six) in the Premier League this season, and they were also near the top in this category last season. They have conceded more chances from fast breaks than any other team in the Premier League this season (five).
On Sunday, Bryan Mbeumo could be key to his side making the most of the space that City leave. United have made the most off-the-ball runs in behind their opponent’s defensive line in the Premier League this season (131), and Mbeumo is responsible for the most of any player (54). Three of the top five totals for in-behind runs by a player in a match this term have been Mbeumo. He also topped the league last season when still at Brentford, with 418.
Bryan Mbeumo runs in behind Premier League 2025-26
Clearly, he is always on the move and constantly stretches opponents by making them track back towards their own goal.
City are accustomed to facing players who look to take advantage of that space, but in Mbeumo, they are about to face the most relentless of the lot. Amad Diallo scored the winner in this fixture last season with a run in behind off the right, so City will have to be extra wary of Mbeumo’s movement this weekend.
Premier League Stats Opta
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