For anyone who thought the transfer portal, NIL payments, and an expanded playoff would somehow damage the regular season popularity of college football, you can think again. Television ratings and game attendance are thriving, as the game has taken on more of an NFL feel, up to and including the big paychecks some players are getting.
Sure, the 12-team playoff has made losing a little more forgivable in the regular season, but if you’re an old school fan who wants de facto elimination games in September, then allow me to direct you to South Bend, Indiana on Saturday night, where the Texas A&M Aggies take on the University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish, in a rematch of last season’s season opener, in which the Irish prevailed in College Station, 23-13.
Notre Dame lost its opener this season, back on August 31, in Miami to the Miami Hurricanes, 27-24. Meanwhile, the Aggies are 2-0, with convincing wins over UTSA and Utah State. So why is this a de facto elimination game? Well, Notre Dame going 0-2 would mean they’d have to run the table just to get into playoff consideration. The Aggies losing would mean they’d need to go, at worst, 6-2 in the SEC to get into playoff consideration.
In other words, while it’s not a literal elimination for the loser, it does shrink their margin for error to a slice above nil. So, with no Houston Texans game until Monday night, let’s do the Friday “four things to watch for” for this crucial college football matchup with massive local flavor:
Irish desperation, Aggie revenge
The motivations for each team are simple. As outlined above, Notre Dame is just trying to stay alive for playoff comfort. After the win over the Aggies last season, the Irish had an inexplicable loss at home to Northern Illinois, forcing them to run the table ten straight weeks to make the playoff. In other words, they know how to play desperate. Meanwhile, the Aggies are looking for revenge after the Irish won, in perhaps the biggest on campus September game in Aggie history last season. Aggie head coach Mike Elko returns to South Bend as a head coach for the first time since leaving his defensive coordinator position for Notre Dame after the 2017 season.
Jeremiyah Love
In their last game, in Miami, Notre Dame’s strategy offensively seemed more centered around getting freshman QB C.J. Carr comfortable early than getting the ball into the hands of their best player, running back Jeremiyah Love. I’m guessing this won’t happen again. They’ll feed Love early and often, and they need to. In case you were unaware of Notre Dame’s history running the football, when they don’t run enough, they lose. They ran just 28 times against Miami, and lost. They ran it fewer than 28 times twice last season — in the two losses to Ohio State and Northern Illinois. The trend is there.
Marcel Reed
In their season opener against Miami, the Irish had trouble getting pressure on Hurricanes QB Carson Beck, and he had a solid game. Reed poses a different challenge, with his ability to run the football. Early this season, Reed has shown improvement as a passer, but the Irish will look to keep him in the pocket. If he escapes, he is dangerous, and can make it a long night for the Irish defense.
The gambling angles
Okay, here is where the runner meets the road — prediction time, and a lot of the numbers line up in Notre Dame’s favor. Here are a few gambling nuggets:
* Texas A&M is 0-7 against the spread in its last 7 games
* Notre Dame is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games
* Notre Dame is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games against SEC opponents
* A&M is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games against Independent teams
* Notre Dame is 5-0 against the spread in its last 5 home games
* Texas A&M is 1-7-1 against the spread in its last 9 road games
Texas A&M won 3 of its last 14 road games straight up
* Notre Dame is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 home games
Yikes! There is only one right choice here… Go Irish!
SPREAD: Notre Dame -6.5
PREDICTION: Notre Dame 27, Texas A&M 17
Listen to Sean Pendergast on SportsRadio 610 from 6 a.m. to 10 a.m. weekdays. Also, follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/SeanTPendergast, on Instagram at instagram.com/sean.pendergast, and like him on Facebook at facebook.com/SeanTPendergast.