As the churn in the global order continues, Indian foreign policy too faces a moment of reckoning. Our external partnerships are getting scrutinized and re-evaluated. After decades of firing persistent complaints at the US, it is now the turn of Washington to target New Delhi. A relationship painstakingly built over decades is being challenged by forces beyond India’s control but have the potential to do some long term damage to the foundations of one of India’s pivotal relationships. This is leading to some lazy analysis about this being the moment when India can pivot to China and Russia. But as was clear from the recent gathering of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, New Delhi would rather maintain a safe distance from such a configuration even as bilateral engagements with each of them can be put on a more robust footing.
A relationship painstakingly built over decades is being challenged by forces beyond India’s control but have the potential to do some long term damage to the foundations of one of India’s pivotal relationships.
In this age of all round pragmatism, sloganeering should pave way for practical outcomes. For a long time, India had been leveraging the global environment to build its domestic capabilities – economic, diplomatic and military. Now as the global environment turns hostile, New Delhi will have to double down on building itself internally. If there is one lesson of the last few years, it is that nations need to keep their powder dry. Hard power is increasingly back in vogue as the main currency of inter-state engagement. And those like the Europeans who had planned on emerging as an “empire of norms” are left to sit in front of a hectoring US President like school kids.
The Chinese have tested us repeatedly along the borders in the last few years and the Pakistani military establishment might feel that there is a new window of opportunity with Donald Trump seeking a bridge to Rawalpindi. Beijing is also testing us via Pakistan, so the present rapprochement with China is no guarantee of India-Pakistan stability. The world is preoccupied with multiple challenges – Russia is fighting its own war, Europe is languishing without any significant hard power, America is fighting its internal demons, India’s Indo-Pacific partners are trying to stand up for themselves. It is China which is consistently working to churn out innovative weapon systems as it revealed during last week’s military parade. From AI-powered drones to hypersonic missiles, Chinese defence industrial complex is busy providing a quantitative and qualitative ballast to the PLA.
So for India, this is no time to talk big and be boastful. But to seriously put into place operational capacity that can allow it to create an architecture of deterrence so as to withstand the challenges emanating from outside. Resting on the laurels of Operation Sindoor is not an option. Building military capabilities requires patience and foresight. It requires intellectual coherence and humility. It requires an acknowledgment that we could have done much better if only we were alive to the possibilities.
Resting on the laurels of Operation Sindoor is not an option. Building military capabilities requires patience and foresight. It requires intellectual coherence and humility.
The Modi government has a fine track record on defence reforms. It needed a strong Prime Minister to tell the nation’s commanders that they could not work in silos. It required political will to shake up the edifice of inefficient defence public sector infrastructure. It required strategic foresight to start embedding the private sector and start ups in the nation’s defence industrial ecosystem. Prime Minister Modi’s announcement of ‘Mission Sudarshan Chakra’ reflects a clear recognition of emerging security challenges, envisioning a multi-layered framework that combines advanced surveillance, cyber defence, and robust physical infrastructure safeguards to address India’s evolving threat landscape.
Yet, as a nation we are so used to being reactive on defence, responding to a border skirmish here and a terror threat there, that caving out a proactive policy response is not going to come easy. For all of government’s interventions, our defence policy debate is still stuck along predictable line: defence versus development; off the shelf buying of defence equipment; civil-military disconnect; slow and inefficient modernisation; resistance to integration among services; overdependence on imports. These are all decades-old debates that we have been diffident in confronting as a nation. While China talks less and implements, the argumentative India keeps on arguing with itself.
As a nation we are so used to being reactive on defence, responding to a border skirmish here and a terror threat there, that caving out a proactive policy response is not going to come easy.
It is painful to see the debate on theatre commands getting resurrected after Operation Sindoor. After a decade long debate on the subject, we are still not ready to move on with a decision. When PM Modi inaugurates the Combined Commanders’ Conference 2025 in Kolkata next week with the theme “Year of Reforms – Transforming for the Future,” he should remind the services that time is running out. Structural reforms within the military and move towards civil-military fusion cannot be half baked.
One of our wisest leaders, P.V. Narasimha Rao, had suggested that not making a decision was also a decision. By not deciding on critical issues of defence policy reforms, we signal our strategic dithering to the world. We shouldn’t be surprised then if we end up becoming a target.
This commentary originally appeared in Mint.
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