We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League game at the Etihad Stadium with our Man City vs Man Utd prediction and preview. Who will claim the bragging rights on derby day?
Man City vs Man Utd: The Key Stats
Manchester City are expected to get back to winning ways in the Premier League, coming out on top in 65.6% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 pre-match simulations.
City’s total of three points is the fewest ever collected by Pep Guardiola in his first three league games of a season.
Manchester United are looking for back-to-back wins at the Etihad Stadium for the first time since March 2021.
Manchester City and Manchester United go into their derby clash at the Etihad Stadium in need of a result, but for different reasons.
City opened their campaign with a 4-0 rout of Wolves but have since dropped off, losing to Tottenham Hotspur and Brighton & Hove Albion, leaving them chasing victory to stay close to the top.
United, meanwhile, earned their first win of the campaign against Burnley last time out thanks to a 97th-minute Bruno Fernandes penalty, though Ruben Amorim is still looking for his first consecutive Premier League wins since taking over in November 2024.
Manchester Derby
After a busy transfer window, which included the deadline day signing of Gianluigi Donnarumma, City were expected to put last season behind them and be in the title fight this time around, but they are already six points adrift of leaders Liverpool in the early standings.
It is the first time since 2004-05 that City have lost two of their first three top-flight matches (W1) in a season; only one team have ever had the same record at this stage and recovered to win the title – United in 1992-93.
The three points collected by City is Pep Guardiola’s lowest total after his first three league games of a season. However, not since 1995-96, when they were eventually relegated, have City lost three of their first four matches.
While that is a somewhat unlikely scenario, given City still have a 6.3% chance of winning the title according to the Opta supercomputer, their recent form does raise some concerns.
Premier League 2025-26 Prediction
Guardiola has lost 49 of his 345 Premier League matches (W247 D49), with 22% of those coming since the start of November 2024 (11).
A defeat against United would see him take the second largest number of games to lose 50, behind Sir Alex Ferguson, whose 50th defeat wasn’t until his 367th match.
But, with the odds stacked against them, United’s topsy-turvy form will be put to the test if they want to do that.
Amorim did beat City twice last season, with Sporting CP and United, respectively, but his Premier League is generally poor, winning just eight of his 30 matches in the competition (D7 L15).
Half of his wins have come against promoted sides, including the Burnley win before the international break, with the Portuguese coach holding just a 16% win rate against non-promoted sides (4/25).
One of Amorim’s key focuses will be on improving United’s attacking output, though losing Matheus Cunha and Mason Mount to injury hasn’t helped his cause.
Across their first three matches of the season, United had 58 shots in the top flight, 14 more than any other side. They also have the biggest expected goals (xG) total (6.78), despite scoring only four times, with two of those coming via own goals.
Fernandes will likely be important if United are to secure back-to-back Premier League wins. He has created the most chances in the league both overall (12) and from open play (8), while he has also scored in each of their last three wins against City in the top flight.
Bruno Fernandes chances created 2025-26 first 3 games
As for team news, City will be without Mateo Kovacic, Rayan Cherki, Rayan Aït-Nouri, John Stones and Omar Marmoush, the latter suffering an injury on international duty with Egypt. Donnarumma could make his debut at the expense of James Trafford.
United will be missing Cunha, Mount, Diogo Dalot and Lisandro Martínez, while Amorim confirmed on Friday that Altay Bayindir will keep his place in goal despite the deadline-day arrival of Senne Lammens from Royal Antwerp.
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Man City vs Man Utd Head-to-Head
Man City have won five of their last eight Premier League matches against Man Utd (D1 L2), though they failed to win either game against them (D1 L1) last season for the first time since 2020-21.
United produced a remarkable late turnaround to win this fixture 2-1 in 2024-25, with Amad Diallo making the difference as he won a penalty that was dispatched by Fernandes, before scoring a 90th-minute winner himself soon after.
Since 2015-16, the home team have ended on the winning side in just six out of 20 Premier League meetings in the Manchester derby (D4 L10).
United have inflicted 25% of Guardiola’s total home Premier League defeats as City manager, winning four times at the Etihad Stadium against the Spaniard (4/16). They are looking for consecutive wins there for the first time since March 2021.
Man City vs Man Utd Prediction
Man City are expected to triumph in the derby, despite losing their last two matches, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a 65.6% chance of victory on Sunday.
Man Utd’s hopes of earning back-to-back away wins against their rivals, meanwhile, sits at just 15.8%, with the likelihood of a draw slightly higher at 18.6%.
Man City vs Man Utd Prediction Opta Supercomputer 14 Sep
Man City vs Man Utd Predicted Lineups
Manchester City: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Matheus Nunes, Rúben Dias, Nathan Aké, Nico O’Reilly, Rodri, Tijjani Reijnders, Bernardo Silva, Oscar Bobb, Jérémy Doku, Erling Haaland.
Head Coach: Pep Guardiola
Manchester United: Altay Bayindir, Leny Yoro, Matthijs de Ligt, Luke Shaw, Casemiro, Kobbie Mainoo, Amad Diallo, Patrick Dorgu, Bruno Fernandes, Bryan Mbeumo, Joshua Zirkzee.
Head Coach: Ruben Amorim
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 10,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Sunday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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