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Celtic Europa League chances graded by stats experts as Rangers rave over 'brilliant' swoop on…

The latest headlines from Scottish heavyweights Rangers and Celtic as attention returns to domestic matters

After three consecutive seasons in the Champions League, Celtic will have to settle for Europa League football this season after the disappointment of a shock penalty shoot-out against a much unfancied Kairat team in Kazakhstan. It’s a hugely disappointing result for Celtic fans and in particular manager Brendan Rodgers, who was in a much less advantageous position in terms of player recruitment than he has had in recent seasons.

However, the one silver lining for the club is perhaps the fact that the Europa League is a much easier competition to win than the Champions League and potentially a tournament where the Hoops can advance into the knockout round and treat their fans to a few memorable European nights. The Scottish champions last played in the knockout phase of a major tournament when they were beaten Bodo/Glimt in the Conference League back in 2021/22 although it’s also worth mentioning that they nearly took Bayern Munich to extra time in a two-legged league-phase play-off in the Champions League last season.

In recent times, their rivals Rangers have progressed to the knockout stages of the Europa League, most recently last season when they were eliminated by Athletic Bilbao in the quarter-final. But it’s worth also noting that the Ibrox club have progressed all the way to the final as recently as 2022 under Giovanni Van Bronckhorst and before that in 2008 during the late great Walter Smith’s tenure with the Light Blues.

Celtic having finished above Rangers in 13 of the last 15 seasons, will have belief that they are also capable of going far in this competition - and it’s fair to say that the sentiment is shared by the experts at OPTA Sport, although it’s not expected to be a formality for Rodgers and his team.

Based on OPTA’s forecast on 10 September, two weeks before a ball is kicked in the competition on Wednesday 24 September, Celtic are likely to finish in 12th position out of 36 teams. This would mean they’d need to play a two-legged play-off to get to the knockout rounds but would be in an advantageous position as they’d be paired with a lower ranked opponent. Overall, OPTA believes Celtic have a 23.4% chance of reaching the last eight as Rangers did last season, a 10.3% chance of reaching the semi-final, and a 4.1% chance of competing in the final. The Hoops, however, have only been given a 1.8% chance of winning the whole competition and replicating the achievement of former boss Ange Postecoglou.

What are Rangers’ hopes of success in Europe?

Rangers’ weak start to the campaign leaves them with a slightly lower chance of success in Europe. However, they have proven that even when times are tough domestically, they can find another level in Europe when in full flow. OPTA Sport’s latest forecast puts them in 24th position out of 36 teams, which would see them just scrape into the play-off rounds.

The Light Blues have been given a 9.71% chance of reaching the quarter-final, a 3.04% chance of reaching the semi-final and just a 0.89% chance of reaching the final. The 2022 runners-up have a 0.31% chance of being crowned champions, based on OPTA’s most recent insight.

Rangers start the competition with a home match against Belgian side Gent. Meanwhile, Celtic take on FK Crvena zvezda, often referred to as Red Star Belgrade in an away game against the Serbian champions who picked up 100 points in the league last season.

Russell Martin expressed delight at Youssef Chermiti signing

One player that hopes to have a big impact in Europe and domestically is summer signing Youssef Chermiti. He arrived from Everton for around £8m potentially rising to £10m. He is a direct replacement for Hamza Igamane after his exit to French side Lille. When discussing the transfer, Rangers boss Russell Martin commented, via Glasgow Times: "It's a long-term investment for the football club, I think it'll be a brilliant investment for the football club.

"I think he'll do extremely well for us. There won't be any expectation on him in here. I'm sure externally maybe that changes.

"But in here, the expectation is that he works as hard as he possibly can. He wants to learn, he wants to grow and he wants to help the team.I think he'll do really well for us."

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