Officially, it’s Week 2.
Unofficially, this is take two.
The Patriots stumbled at the start of the Mike Vrabel era last week, dropping a winnable game to the Raiders at home as favorites. Now, they’re headed to Miami, historically a house of horrors, with the goal of winning as a slight underdog.
The Dolphins got hammered, 33-8, last Sunday in Indianapolis. Running back De’Von Achane only scored after the Colts had mounted a 30-point lead on the back of aggressive defense and a ball-control approach on offense. The Patriots, who blitzed at a 42.5% clip versus Las Vegas, are poised to put more heat on Tua Tagovailoa.
But can they control the clock like Indianapolis did on offense? And if not, how else might they win?
Here’s what to watch for Sunday:
#### When the Patriots run
For a second straight season opener, Rhamondre Stevenson finished with more rushing yards after contact than total rush yards.
Translation: open running lanes were few and far between last Sunday.
Avoiding would-be tacklers in the backfield, Stevenson earned 17 yards after contact and 15 in the box score, per Pro Football Focus. But despite playing almost double the snaps (46) that second-round rookie TreVeyon Henderson did (25), Stevenson didn’t break a single tackle. Henderson shed one, and could see more snaps against the Dolphins.
Because between his long speed and explosiveness, Henderson is the most dangerous weapon the Patriots have. However, the coaches may not trust him yet in a full-time role that would call for more reps in blitz pickup if the Patriots fall behind again.
Whoever is in the backfield, look for offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to stick with the run longer than the Patriots did versus Las Vegas.
“They need the ball more,” McDaniels said this week. “That’s the best way to say it.”
The Pats averaged 3.3 yards per carry and abandoned rushing at halftime versus Las Vegas, which put the game squarely on Drake Maye’s shoulders. Speaking of Maye, he may see even more chances to run after he triggered three option plays versus the Raiders. Colts quarterback Daniel Jones also scored two rushing touchdowns against Miami.
#### When the Patriots pass
Foxboro, MA - New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye gets off pass during the fourth quarter of the game at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)
Quick: can you name a Dolphins cornerback?
Miami’s corner depth has been decimated by injury and offseason decisions, leaving ex-Patriots draft pick Jack Jones as their new No. 1 cover man. Jones is among several players from AFC East rivals who recently signed to patch a secondary together around veteran safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. The others include former Bills cornerback Rasul Douglas and ex-Jets safety Ashtyn Davis.
Because of its poor coverage talent, Miami has doubled down on a pass rush littered with strong edge rushers. Last month, ex-Patriots Matt Judon joined a front featuring former first-round picks Chop Robinson (six sacks last year), Jaelan Phillips and two-time Pro Bowler Bradley Chubb. If the Patriots can protect Maye from edge pressure, he should feast downfield. If not, he’s in trouble.
Expect the Patriots to feed tons of targets to receivers Kayshon Boutte, Stefon Diggs and DeMario Douglas.
#### When the Dolphins run
Last Sunday, Achane led the Dolphins with 55 rushing yards. No other Miami rusher reached double digits.
Falling behind by multiple scores played a factor in the Dolphins offensive plans at Indianapolis, but their offensive line remains suspect; particularly at guard and at right tackle, where starter Austin Jackson is out.
That presents mismatches for Patriots defensive tackles Milton Williams and Christian Barmore, who should control the line of scrimmage. Their efforts, plus an early lead, would all but neutralize Miami’s run game. The danger the Dolphins pose on the ground is less about steady gains than the risk of an explosive run.
Achane is one of the fastest players in the league who will be hard to catch if he breaks through the second level. That puts an added emphasis on tackling, particularly for inside linebackers Robert Spillane and Christian Elliss, who both whiffed three times last week. As a defense, the Pats missed 11 tackles against the Raiders, a number that has to come down this Sunday.
#### When the Dolphins pass
Speed, speed, speed.
Despite their lackluster numbers in Week 1, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle remain among the most dangerous receiver duos in the league. Miami further stresses defenses by often putting them in motion at the snap to force split-second communication in opposing secondaries. Vrabel noted the Dolphins’ motion and speed in his opening press conference this week.
“We’ll have to be great,” he said Wednesday. “We’ll have to have great preparation for an offense that motions a lot and relies on their speed and their timing, their precision. So, it’s always a big challenge to play this team.”
In one of the stranger stats across the NFL, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is 7-0 in his career against the Patriots. In past years, the Pats have struggled to put pressure on Tagovailoa, who boasts one of the quickest releases in the league. Their new scheme should help, with Barmore, Williams and Co. tasked with simply creating havoc in the backfield instead of controlling gaps.
Last week, Patriots edge rushers Harold Landry and K’Lavon Chaisson combined for three sacks. A similar performance against young tackles Patrick Paul and Larry Borom would go a long way to helping the Patriots pick up a win in South Florida.
#### Game prediction
Patriots 20, Dolphins 19