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NFL Notes: Why can’t the Patriots win in Miami? They can’t explain it

Mike Onwenu couldn’t remember.

Maybe that was for the best.

Three years ago, the Patriots spent a week in South Florida ahead of their season opener against the Dolphins. Bill Belichick camped the team at Palm Beach Atlantic University, a private Christian school that competes at the Division II level. Because Palm Beach Atlantic doesn’t have a football program, the Pats practiced on soccer fields with makeshift field goal posts.

Everything that week was built around the idea of eliminating the Dolphins’ homefield advantage: their players natural acclimation to the overwhleming heat and humidity. The Patriots’ travel plans that week could be argued as the greatest lengths the franchise ever went to beat a division rival under Bill Belichick.

But only that’s if you remember that week.

“I think that was at a high school or something?” Onwenu said in front of his locker this week. “It was a while ago. I think the time there was probably helpful, just in terms conditioning. But I can’t say what I remember leading up to that game or anything like that.”

Well, it didn’t help.

The Pats got manhandled by Mother Nature and the Dolphins over a 20-7 loss played out under 90-degree temperatures. Mac Jones was strip-sacked in the second quarter for a defensive touchdown, the beginning of the end for the Bill Belichick era. And yet, losing in Miami felt all too familiar.

Hard Rock Stadium is a house of horrors for the Patriots dating back to their dynasty days. Tom Brady went 8-10 as a starter in Miami. The Pats are 2-10 at Hard Rock over the last dozen years. None of their current players have won there while wearing red, white and blue.

And none of them can explain it.

Not Onwenu, the team’s longest-tenured player from the time he signed his first contract in May 2020. Not even ex-Dolphins receiver Mack Hollins (2019-21), now in his first season with the Patriots.

“I’m not really sure,” Hollins said.

Some Patriots losses in stand alone, as inexplicable as they were stunning.

Patriots-Dolphins injury report: Christian Gonzalez out, Morgan Moses questionable for Sunday

There was the Miami Miracle in 2018, a last-second collapse on a hook-and-lateral play that ended with Rob Gronkowski playing defense and diving unsuccessfully as Kenyan Drake sped into the end zone for a game-winning touchdown in a delirious stadium. The year before, a bad Dolphins team led by a fading Jay Cutler diced Belichick's defense as a 10.5-point underdog on Monday Night Football while the Patriots were en route to another Super Bowl.

Others losses, like their double-digit defeats of the past two seasons, were perfectly regular. The Pats traveled south with less talent and a smaller margin of error than the Dolphins, and fell 31-17, then 34-15. Simple enough to understand.

"I mean, first, you know, the weather kind of plays a role in it. But we've just got to go out and execute the game plan," said Pats outside linebacker Anfernee Jennings, another 2020 draft pick like Onwenu. "If we don't, then things can go another way."

No one in the organization has seen more games go sideways in South Florida than Josh McDaniels. He joined the Patriots as a low-level defensive assistant in 2001 and coordinated most of the team's offenses when Brady played quarterback in New England. McDaniels only scored one win at Miami without Brady, a 2008 blowout with Matt Cassel at quarterback.

McDaniels' attempt to explain the inexplicable suggested that the familiarity between the two teams breeds as much bad luck as it does contempt.

"I've been down there many times, and some have been good, and some have not," McDaniels said Friday on WEEI. "You know, I'd start with the fact that it's a division opponent, and division games are always difficult. They seem to know you the best. You know them the best. So that's part of the process that you go through each year with the three teams that are in your division."

And yet since Brady left, the Patriots have upset the Bills -- reigning AFC East champions since 2020 -- more times than've beaten the Dolphins. Something seems to be in the water in Miami.

Dolphins receiver Jaylen Waddle catches a touchdown pass against the Patriots at Hard Rock Stadium on Jan. 9, 2022 in Miami Gardens. (John McCall, South Florida Sun Sentinel)

Dolphins receiver Jaylen Waddle catches a touchdown pass against the Patriots at Hard Rock Stadium on Jan. 9, 2022 in Miami Gardens. (John McCall, South Florida Sun Sentinel)

Not that McDaniels, speaking just two days out from kickoff, seems to care.

"Whatever happened in the past, whatever has taken place, good or bad, doesn't really have any impact on this week," he said. "I'm looking forward to our team going down there and putting together a really good four quarters, and helping us try to win the game."

This week, the Patriots' youngest captain seemed to agree with McDaniels.

Young cornerback Marcus Jones, who is only 1-7 in his career against the Dolphins, hit on a number of factors while he reflected on the rivalry. Jones mentioned the quick trigger of Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who is unbeaten his career against the Patriots. And, of course, Tagovailoa's top weapons -- wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle -- who will both have Jones' attention this Sunday.

Though, Jones may have overstated the Dolphins' caliber just a little.

"First off, they're a great team," he said. "They know how to scheme up certain things. They know how to do a lot of things whenever it comes down to it, and whenever you're playing in division, it's always hard. I would say the humidity, that's a little difference whenever it comes in, especially whenever you're playing them early in the year. And then also their big-play guys."

Lucky for the Patriots, their fortunes could soon change.

Mike Vrabel went 2-0 against the Tua Tagovailoa-led Dolphins during his time in Tennessee, including a 34-3 blowout in Miami's last game before it hired current coach Mike McDaniel. Under McDaniel -- who later dropped a shocking 28-27 home loss to Vrabel's Titans in 2023, the Dolphins' offense has become known for its speed, timing and rhythm.

Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel on the sideline during the second quarter of last Sunday's season-opening game against the Raiders at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel on the sideline during the second quarter of last Sunday's season-opening game against the Raiders at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

Taking a violent, disruptive approach on defense -- two staples of most Vrabel teams -- seems to give Miami problems. Just ask the Colts, who thrashed the Dolphins, 33-8, in last weekend's season opener.

"We're certainly going to have to make them earn it, and we're going to have to find ways to get the drive sstopped. You either have to do what the Colts did, which was turn it over, or you're going to have to make a play along the way and make them earn it," Vrabel said. "Pick and choose your spots to try to be aggressive."

Under Belichick -- and later Jerod Mayo -- the Patriots tried for years to make the Dolphins offense sustain long drives. Miami happily obliged and thrived. But those defenses, more then Vrabel's new unit, were interested in gap control and keeping everything in front of them rather then penetration and creating negative plays.

The latter style should help stress the Dolphins and perhaps force them into mistakes, as Indianapolis did under new defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo last weekend.

That is, of course, if the Pats can survive the weather first. Temperatures are currently expected to rise into the low 90s, with on-again, off-again precipitation.

"I mean, it's going to be warm, it's going to be wet, it'll be humid," Vrabel said Wednesday. "I'm sure it'll rain, probably lightning, who knows. But it'll rain, and then it'll stop."

Sound familiar?

A rebuild reminder.

If Josh McDaniels' repeated reminders Thursday that Drake Maye is a "young quarterback" weren't enough, Mike Vrabel reiterated Friday the franchise is taking a long view with its rebuild.

This is only Year 1, and while the Patriots are working, scheming and practicing to win every Sunday, their biggest games are well ahead of them.

"I think it's about preparing (players) to win, but then also continuing to develop and build. And so, again, having things and opportunities for the younger players -- whether that's post-practice or the practice squad players, getting them what they need, having reps for them afterwards so that they can be coached and talking about watching their tape tomorrow morning with the coaches before the meetings, so that they can see their reps this week and their speed reps -- (it's about) just trying to get the right balance.

Vrabel continued: "I think that's the biggest thing. We have to prepare to win, play to win, compete to win and never lose sight of that. That's our short-term goal, and then the long-term goal of just putting all the pieces together is something that I think everybody tries to focus on."

Quote of the Week

"I know that doing a radio show at 6:30 a.m. on Monday morning after a loss is probably going to come back to haunt me and it's going to get picked apart, so I'll do my best to try to explain that after a week. But, that's the position, and we can all look over at Stacey [James]. But I get it, I'll be there every morning, Monday, 6:30 a.m." -- Patriots coach Mike Vrabel on Friday, clarifying comments he made Monday to WEEI about the team's run game

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