There’s a lot on the line for both managers in today’s Manchester derby at the Etihad Stadium
Ferguson’s legacy was cemented as he became one of the rare football managers to end a job on his terms, walking away from United as a champion and an icon whose legacy is unlikely to be matched.
It may have been inevitable that a period of transition and probable decline would follow the Ferguson era, but the 12 years since have been more bleak than even the most pessimistic United fan would have feared.
There has been an odd trophy along the way, but false dawns have been frequent for a club that has courted calamity with an unhealthy relish.
Another loss in today’s Manchester derby at the Etihad Stadium will leave the latest manager seemingly destined to be sunk by the United curse. The depressingly familiar cycle of despair is showing little sign of ending under Ruben Amorim.
Sporting auras take time to build, but they can be shattered very quickly, with United’s neighbours at Manchester City now wondering whether their own kingmaker has reached his endpoint.
In many respects, Guardiola’s impact on City is even more profound than Ferguson’s on United.
That may sound disrespectful to the most successful manager in English football history, but the job Ferguson did at United was focused on reviving a global sporting giant and he did that time and again to turn them into one of the most prolific winning machines the game has seen.
Guardiola had a different task when he arrived at City in the summer of 2016. He was handed the chance to build a club that was still striving to be welcomed to football’s most exclusive club, which is notoriously reluctant to embrace new faces.
The Manchester City Guardiola inherited had won Premier League titles under different managers in the years prior to his arrival, but the Spanish maestro was the boss the club’s owners always wanted to lead their vision, and the marriage was a game-changer.
City’s success over the last nine years has been built around Pep’s vision, with the dynasty he has created certain to leave a legacy that his successors will aim to cash in on.
But that’s where these two stories could have uncomfortable similarities.
The 12 years since Alex Ferguson's departure as Manchester United manager have been utterly forgettable at times. Photo: Alex Livesey/Getty
The 12 years since Alex Ferguson's departure as Manchester United manager have been utterly forgettable at times. Photo: Alex Livesey/Getty
United without Ferguson has been a tale of chaos and confusion, with the departure of the talisman who held it all together inspiring a period of decline that has yet to end.
So, what will City without Pep look like?
There is no natural successor to a manager who has helped to reshape how the modern game is played. His possession-based approach was adopted by teams all over the world, even if they are not always capable of executing it.
His successor at City may attempt to continue the success he has inspired, but the last 12 months have been a shock to everyone involved with the club and especially its leader.
This time last year, defending Premier League champions City had won their opening four matches, scoring 11 goals in the process.
After nine games of the season, they were two points clear of Liverpool at the top of the table, with no sign of what was about to befall the most feared team in European football.
A defeat at Bournemouth at the start of November sparked a seven-game winless streak that included six defeats as Guardiola was forced to deal with the kind of slump he had never experienced before.
The misery continued through to Christmas and after his side finished 22nd out of 36 teams in the Champions League group stage, they were knocked out of the competition by Real Madrid.
An FA Cup final defeat to Crystal Palace in May banished any hopes of a cherry being added to the top of the City wreckage, but winners like Guardiola tend to roar back when adversity strikes.
At least that is what the former Barcelona and Bayern Munich boss would have been telling his players and, more importantly, himself during a summer that included an embarrassing Club World Cup defeat to Saudi side Al-Hilal.
City spent big in the last two transfer windows to rebuild their dreams and the presence of PSG’s Champions League-winning keeper Gianluigi Donnarumma in their squad for today’s derby confirms that Guardiola’s pulling power is still there.
Yet one poor season cannot be followed by a second and if United were to get three points this afternoon, City’s shaky start will have taken a turn for the worse.
A challenging Champions League game against Antonio Conte’s Italian champions Napoli is on their agenda on Thursday before they face a trip to the Emirates Stadium to face Arsenal next Sunday.
Let’s imagine a plausible scenario that sees City claim just one point from the games against United and Arsenal. By the close of play next Sunday, they could be a massive 11 points behind Liverpool and probably out of the title race before the end of September.
Such scenarios were never considered for this team and this manager, until now. But times have changed.
The next Manchester City manager will oversee a period of transition and rebuilding that has been started by Guardiola, but may not be finished by him.
As those who have tried and failed to follow in Ferguson’s footsteps at United will testify, succeeding a managerial icon is no easy task.