The 1-0 defeat at Fulham has sparked fears that the current Leeds United team do not have enough to survive in the Premier League this season. The lack of goals in the team is a worry, but a deeper look at the numbers suggests that the Whites are doing alright, for now.
Leeds have not scored in open play from their opening four Premier League games. Lukas Nmecha’s last winner from the penalty spot against Everton last month was the last goal the team have scored.
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The Whites have gone more than 276 minutes of league football without scoring a goal, and the lack of quality strikers and creative players has led to the dread of getting relegated back to the Championship, just four games into the season.
Leeds fans have legitimate concerns about the team and the lack of goals. However, a deeper look at the metrics suggests the team could do just enough over the course of the campaign to stay up.
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The numbers around Leeds United are alright despite relegation fears
First things first, Leeds have looked poor in the final third. Calvert-Lewin missed a good chance against Fulham, and for a team creating very little, half-chances need to be put away.
However, barring the Arsenal defeat, Leeds have looked solid in midfield and defence and have more or less limited the opponents in the final third.
The Fulham defeat could have been the perfect away performance for a team looking to survive had Gabriel Gudmundsson not scored an own goal in injury time.
Let’s look at the numbers for Leeds and the rest of the Premier League to assess whether the panic around Daniel Farke’s team is justified this early in the campaign.
Leeds are 15th in the Premier League table, and given the underlying metrics, they are more or less exactly where they should be at this stage of the season.
In terms of expected goals (xG), Leeds should be just a place below the real Premier League table, in 16th, but crucially, not in the relegation table.
Sunderland are sitting seventh in the Premier League, but they have wildly overperformed their xG, and that is not sustainable over the course of the season.
Burnley and Wolves are below Leeds in both tables, while Brentford are overperforming their numbers.
Teams with negative xG vs the Actual number are the ones who are in real danger of falling off if their performances do not improve over the course of the campaign.
Leeds’ early-season numbers put them in midtable
Expected points is one more metric that provides us insight into a team’s actual performance, compared to their results, and even here, Leeds are doing better than the perception around them.
Leeds are firmly in mid-table when it comes to the expected points table, and it is an indicator that they could do enough to survive over the course of the season.
It doesn’t mean that Leeds will finish above teams such as Manchester City, Liverpool or Aston Villa. However, there are enough teams below them who are expected to be in and around the Whites in the league table towards the end of the campaign.
Sunderland, Burnley, Wolves, West Ham and Nottingham Forest are teams that could be Leeds’ relegation rivals and are currently below them based on the underlying metrics of their performance.
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