For the New England Patriots to enter the win column for the first time this season, they will need to snap a five-game losing streak at Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium. Whether it was Bill Belichick or Jerod Mayo coaching the team, the Patriots have not won against the Dolphins on the road since Week 2 of the 2019 season.
In order to get off the schneid, there needs to be clear improvement from last Sunday’s 20-13 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders. From run/pass splits, to blitz packages, to explosive plays, to special teams miscues, all three phases of the game have to take a step forward if the Patriots want to leave Miami with a victory.
In addition, they also need some positive contributions from their X-factors starting in the defensive backfield.
X-factor vs. Dolphins: Running game
Even though he is one of the most promising young quarterbacks in the NFL, having Drake Maye drop back 53 times and attempting 46 passes is not a sustainable way of playing offense. The Patriots know this as well, and are actively trying to kick-start their running game this week.
The name to watch in that regard will be TreVeyon Henderson. The second-round rookie, who showed immense promise in training camp and preseason, was on the field for only 25 of a possible 71 offensive snaps in Week 1; he finished with five carries for 27 yards and six catches for 24 while playing second fiddle to starter Rhamondre Stevenson.
While the circumstances and game script contributed to Henderson’s role, an increase in snaps and touches against Miami could be in the cards. That is particularly true given that New England could find some success on the ground if playing its cards correctly.
The Patriots were a bit hit-or-miss on the ground versus the Raiders, ranking just 29th in the league in EPA per run (-0.331) and 21st in success rate (35.3%). In total, they finished with 53 yards on 15 scripted run plays for an average of 3.5 yards per carry.
In order for those numbers to improve, the Patriots need their backs to be on top of their game — be they named Rhamondre Stevenson, TreVeyon Henderson or Antonio Gibson — and also the offensive line to do its part. The group also had its inconsistencies last Sunday, which had to be expected given that the five starters have had no prior in-game experience playing alongside one another.
Still, the NFL is ruthless; it’s a sink or swim league. The O-line needs to do its job by climbing to the second level and picking up Miami’s run blitzes or stunts, while the backs need to make the most of any holes opening up.
Other X-factors this week
RT Morgan Moses: While not perfect by any means, the veteran right tackle had a solid debut against a Raiders front led by edge rusher Maxx Crosby last Sunday. Now going against Bradley Chubb, Jaelan Phillips and company, he needs to continue on that positive trajectory despite being limited in practice this week due to a foot injury. Moses will primarily be matched up with Chubb, an all-rounder capable of setting a firm edge in the run game and of disrupting the pocket as a pass rusher. Chubb is more than equipped to exploit any potential weaknesses in Moses’ game.
Defensive front four: Miami’s offensive struggles in Week 1 were in large part due to Tua Tagovailoa looking uncomfortable in the pocket. He was only pressured on six of his 27 total dropbacks (22.2%), but crucially sacked three times within his first 10. That early disruption set the tone for the day, and it is something the Patriots would also benefit from on Sunday — especially if they are able to get home with four players against an offensive line set to start backups at right guard and right tackle.
LB Robert Spillane and LB Christian Elliss: What has made Mike McDaniel’s offense so potent through the years is its ability to stress defenses’ poise and keys through the use of motion and misdirection. One target of that is to move the off-ball linebacker out of the way to create passing lanes and space for the speedy wideouts to operate in. As a result, New England’s top duo of Robert Spillane and Christian Elliss needs to be on its A-game. The occasional lapses like last week’s versus the Raiders could lead to big plays versus an explosive Miami offense.
Cornerback group: Another game, another no-show for starting cornerback Christian Gonzalez. The second-team All-Pro still being hampered by a hamstring issue means that the Patriots will once again rely on the depth behind him, namely Carlton Davis, Alex Austin and Marcus Jones. The trio played a solid game versus Las Vegas in Week 1, but the challenge presented by the likes of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in particular is a different one altogether. Having Gonzalez would make defending the two easier — he kept Hill check in all three of their matchups so far — but now the rest of the group needs to show it is up to the challenge as well.
Big play defense: Even though New England’s defense gave up only 20 points to the Raiders in Week 1, it had its issues in several areas. One of them was giving up big plays: the team surrendered nine plays of more than 20 yards, the highest such mark in the NFL. A similar outing against Miami would be a concerning development.
Conditioning: We are on two straight weeks of mentioning conditioning as a key for the Patriots, but that is the nature of playing in Miami. It is a notoriously tough place to play, particularly early in the season. Sunday will be more of the same: temperatures are expected to climb into the high 80s, while humidity will be a factor as well. New England’s players need to be in top shape to weather the storm.
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