For a couple decades, after the NFL grew to 32 teams and while they still played a 16 game schedule, teams across the two different conferences, AFC and NFC< would only face each other once every four years. That’s why, until last season, the Houston Texans had only played the Dallas Cowboys six times in the regular season.
However, with the addition of a 17th regular season game in 2021, we’ve had an additional NFC foe added to the dance card. I won’t bore you with the formula as to how they determine who that cross-conference opponent is each season, but it did yield another Cowboys game last season (a 34-10 Texans win on Monday Night Football), and on Monday night, it gives us a rematch of one of the best games of the 2023 season, a 39-37 Texans win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
In what was widely viewed as his coming out party, C.J. Stroud set a rookie record with 470 yards passing and five touchdown passes in a scintillating comeback win over the Bucs at NRG Stadium. Tank Dell caught the game winning touchdown passes with under ten seconds to go in the game.
Since then, the Bucs and Texans have lived in a similar neighborhood in the NFL’s pecking order, both winning their divisions and making some noise in the playoffs the last couple seasons. Both teams have undergone some changes since that Week 9 game in 2023, since after all, it is the NFL. However, the head coaches and quarterbacks remain the same.
The Buccaneers are trying to go 2-0, while the Texans are looking for their first win of the season. It should be an electric environment at NRG Stadium. Let’s get to a few things to watch for in this matchup:
4. Hey Texans, play cleaner
Since taking over as Texans head coach in 2023, DeMeco Ryans’ teams have ranked 4th (2023) and 7th (2024) in penalties. Already, through Week 1, the 11 penalties committed by the Texans against the Rams has them tied for fourth in the league in penalties. It’s tough to win, when you’re beating yourself. DeMeco Ryans said this week that he can live with penalties of aggression, but pre-snap and dead ball penalties are unacceptable. I’m not here to parse things over type of penalty. I am here to say that, if the Texans have a double digit number of penalties on Monday night, they will likely lose the ball game.
3. Feed Nico
Among other unacceptable developments in the loss to the Rams, the Texans somehow seemed to forget that they have one of the ten best receivers in the NFL on their roster. Nico Collins had five targets for the whole game, resulting in a paltry three catches for an absurdly paltry 25 yards. DeMeco Ryans was not shy about the fact that the Texans need to throw the ball to Nico Collins way more. When they do, good things generally happen. In rewatching the All-22 film from Sunday, Collins was open plenty of times. It’s on the offensive line to protect C.J. Stroud long enough to find him in his progressions.
2. No more wasted downs
The other aspect of the offense that Ryans was clear would be remedied in this game against Tampa Bay is the method of doling out carries to the running backs. Make no mistake, every play involving Dameon Pierce right now is a wasted down. Dare Ogunbowale should not be nearly as involved in crunch time as he was last Sunday. I’m fine with Woody Marks getting a few touches, but right now, the running game needs to be the Nick Chubb Show, and Ryans seemed to indicate that would be the case, when he was talking to Marc Vandermeer and John Harris on his coach’s show this past week.
1. Give Baker Mayfield the “NRG treatment”
Last season, NRG Stadium was a house of horrors for opposing quarterbacks (not named Lamar Jackson). Josh Allen, who would go on to win the MVP award, had the worst passing game of his career. Jared Goff, who won 15 games last season, threw five interceptions. Justin Herbert threw three picks all season, but threw four in a playoff loss at NRG Stadium. This needs to happen to Baker Mayfield, who will likely be playing behind an offensive line where four of the five starters are either reserves or starters playing out of position. This needs to be a game where Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter make it their mission to turn Mayfield into a grease spot, and when Mayfield isn’t getting sacked, the crowd noise in NRG Stadium needs to rattle him into some poor decisions.
SPREAD: Texans -1
PREDICTION: Texans 24, Buccaneers 20
SEASON RECORD: 0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS
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