We look ahead to Thursday’s Champions League game at the Etihad Stadium with our Man City vs Napoli prediction and preview. Can City capitalise on derby delight, or will familiar faces return with a point to prove?
Man City vs Napoli: The Key Stats
In the Opta supercomputer‘s 10,000 pre-match simulations, Manchester City beat Napoli 54.9% of the time.
Man City boss Pep Guardiola has faced Napoli counterpart Antonio Conte on seven occasions across all competitions, losing more matches (4) than he has won (3).
Erling Haaland is one goal away from reaching 50 in the UEFA Champions League (48 appearances), and looks all but assured to set a new record for the fewest appearances taken to hit 50 UCL goals.
The visit of Napoli to the Etihad Stadium will see a host of familiar faces return to Manchester, but none so revered as Kevin De Bruyne, regarded by many as Manchester City’s all-time greatest player.
De Bruyne was a City player for 10 years before leaving as a free agent to join Napoli over the summer, winning 16 trophies in sky blue, as well as many important personal accolades on the back of an astonishing 108 goals and 170 assists in 422 appearances.
The decision to let the Belgian leave without the offer of a fresh contract was no doubt a tough choice for the club’s hierarchy, and De Bruyne reportedly initially disagreed with the assertion that it was the right time for him to depart the club.
Though he ultimately left on great terms, with an emotional post-match speech in front of the Etihad faithful and the presentation of a training ground mural in his image, a competitor of his ilk will no doubt be keen to prove that the club decided to move him on a year too soon.
De Bruyne won’t be the only Napoli player to reacquaint himself with the sunny skies of Manchester, although his reception will be vastly different to the others. Scott McTominay and Rasmus Højlund will both return to the city after joining Napoli from Manchester United in successive seasons.
McTominay’s stock has risen considerably in Italy. The Scot was named Serie A’s Most Valuable Player after helping lead to club to the Scudetto in manager Antonio Conte’s first season.
It could end up a similar story for Højlund, who after two miserable seasons with limited output in England, scored 14 minutes into his Napoli debut at the weekend. He will be hoping to rediscover the promise shown during his time with Atalanta.
Napoli have lost each of their last two matches against Man City, though those games did come during the 2017-18 campaign. Nonetheless, they have historically struggled in England, having never won away to an English side in 12 attempts.
They have followed up a title-winning campaign with another quick start this season, topping the Serie A table after three games, and Conte is a coach that Pep Guardiola will not be too enthused to duel with once more.
The two managers have faced off on seven previous occasions and it is the Italian that has the upper hand to date, winning four times to Guardiola’s three. Only Jürgen Klopp and Luis Enrique have faced Guardiola more often while still winning more often than losing.
City will be energised after their derby victory against Man Utd at the weekend, although it is hard to say exactly how much of that performance was built on City’s quality or United’s lack of it.
The form of Erling Haaland will no doubt be decisive in this encounter, and the Norwegian is absolutely flying, as he is often liable to do in the early months of the season.
Haaland followed up six goals over the international break with a derby day brace on Sunday, and his output across the first four games of the Premier League season has been staggering. We even asserted earlier this week that this version of Haaland is the best we’ve ever seen.
Erling Haaland per-90 stats Premier League
As we know, Haaland’s goalscoring prowess is not just limited to domestic football, and he needs just one goal against Napoli to smash a Champions League record that has stood for 18 years.
Haaland has scored 49 goals in 48 appearances in Europe’s premier competition. The record for the fewest games needed to score 50 goals is currently held by Ruud van Nistelrooy, who achieved the feat in his 62nd game back in 2007. As the below graphic shows, Haaland is on course to smash that record:
Champions League race to 50 UCL goals
Jonathan Manuel / Data Analyst
Phil Foden also scored on his return to the City XI at the weekend and the possibility of him rediscovering his levels of two seasons ago is an exciting one for City fans. Napoli will be a true test of his current abilities.
Man City vs Napoli Head-to-Head
All four of the previous meetings between Manchester City and Napoli in Europe have been in the group stage of the UEFA Champions League. The Citizens went winless in 2011-12 (D1 L1), before winning home and away in 2017-18.
Napoli have never won away to an English side in any European competition (P12 W0 D3 L9), losing at least once against six of the seven different teams they have faced (Arsenal, Burnley, Chelsea, Leeds United, Liverpool and Manchester City), with Leicester the only exception (2-2 in UEFA Europa League in 2021-22).
Man City vs Napoli Prediction
The Opta supercomputer envisions a Man City victory as the most likely outcome for this match, giving them a 54.9% chance of opening their Champions League campaign with a home win over Napoli.
Napoli’s chances of winning are down at 22.0% according to our simulations, while the likelihood of a draw sits at 23%.
Man City vs Napoli Prediction
Man City vs Napoli Predicted Lineups
Manchester City: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Nico O’Reilly, Joško Gvardiol, Rúben Dias, Abdukodir Khusanov, Rodri, Jérémy Doku, Phil Foden, Tijjani Reijnders, Bernardo Silva, Erling Haaland.
Head coach: Pep Guardiola
Napoli: Vanja Milinković-Savić, Leonardo Spinazzola, Alessandro Buongiorno, Sam Beukema, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Stanislav Lobotka, Scott McTominay, Kevin De Bruyne, Frank Anguissa, Matteo Politano, Rasmus Højlund.
Head coach: Antonio Conte
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 10,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off at the Etihad Stadium on Thursday evening, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
UEFA Champions League Stats Opta
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