Sunderland’s early Premier League numbers inspire hope, but a brutal festive run will test Régis Le Bris’ side
Sunderland’s return to the Premier League was always going to be a test of resilience. Four games in, there are enough numbers behind Régis Le Bris’ side to offer hope – even if there are clear areas for improvement.
Clean sheets and home strength
The Black Cats have already recorded two clean sheets from their opening four matches, a solid base that underlines the progress being made defensively. Saturday’s goalless draw at Crystal Palace not only brought the first shutout on the road this season but also delivered Sunderland’s first away point back in the top flight after 3,052 days.
Defensively, the record holds up well against Premier League standards. Sunderland have conceded just three goals so far, placing them in the top half of the division for goals conceded. The underlying metrics back that up, too – with Sunderland posting an xGA (expected goals against) of 4.5, ranking them 14th in the division for this metric. That may sound modest, but it’s a promising early sign for a newly-promoted side, showing that their defensive organisation has kept opponents to relatively low-quality chances.
Further defensive resilience despite hard circumstances
Their resilience is also reflected in the fact that they sit fourth for clearances per match (31.8), a sign of a back line that is standing firm under pressure and doing the basics right. At the Stadium of Light, home form looks set to be crucial. Sunderland have picked up two wins from two, scoring five goals in front of their own fans. That attacking output, coupled with the ability to come from behind against Brentford, shows character and resilience – qualities vital in a survival fight.
In defence, Sunderland have also faced adversity. Dan Ballard’s injury against Burnley followed Jenson Seelt limping off in the opening game against West Ham. Despite those setbacks, the back line looks increasingly secure, with Nordi Mukiele and Omar Alderete bedding in alongside Trai Hume and Reinildo on the flanks. Competition is developing too, giving Le Bris valuable options as the season wears on.
Le Bris will also take encouragement from his team’s discipline – Sunderland rank 19th for fouls per match (8.0), one of the lowest in the division – and the quality of Robin Roefs between the sticks, with the Black Cats second in saves per game (3.3).
Room for improvement despite numbers that encourage
The underlying data also provides encouragement. Sunderland sit seventh in the overall FotMob ratings (7.01), ahead of established Premier League sides, while their defensive record is competitive: fourth-best in goals conceded per match (0.8) and already two clean sheets.
What makes these numbers even more impressive is the relative upheaval of this summer. Sunderland signed a host of new players, leaving Le Bris with what is essentially an almost entirely new team. Many of those recruits are either young, playing in the Premier League for the first time – or both – yet they have already begun to show signs of settling.
The Echo has launched a new WhatsApp SAFC channel to bring the latest news, analysis and team & injury updates directly to your phone. Simply clickthis link to join our SAFC WhatsApp channel.
There are, however, clear areas to sharpen up. Sunderland rank 18th for shots on target per match (2.3) and 17th for expected goals (3.4), figures that underline the need for more cutting edge in the final third and better chance creation. Their crossing accuracy (11th in the Premier League) and long ball completion (15th) also highlight room for improvement in supply lines to the forwards.
Can Sunderland survive in the Premier League this season?
I would argue yes, survival now feels like a real possibility, but it is a long, old season. There are obvious realities in the top-flight. Sunderland face a brutal festive run of fixtures – Liverpool away (Dec 3), Manchester City away (Dec 6), Newcastle at home (Dec 13), Brighton away (Dec 20), Leeds United at home (Dec 27), Manchester City at home (Dec 30) and Tottenham away (Jan 3). Throw into the mix the Africa Cup of Nations, when the Black Cats are set to lose key players such as Noah Sadiki, Habib Diarra and others over Christmas.
Le Bris’ side have coped well so far with life in the Premier League and are hopefully building, but they have yet to face many of the division’s big boys. That is where things will get really interesting. The signs for survival are good for now, with Sunderland sitting seventh in the table on seven points from four games – but this is a marathon, not a sprint. The numbers offer hope, but the toughest tests are yet to come.
Continue Reading