Leeds United are a team with four points in the Premier League ahead of this weekend’s game against Wolverhampton Wanderers.
It could so easily be five points for Daniel Farke’s side, with Leeds United losing late on to Fulham last time out. The problem has been scoring goals more than defending, however.
Leeds’ referee has been selected for the Wolves game, which is another concern given previous experiences. In fact, Opta believe Wolves beat Leeds but also that the Whites survive relegation by the end of this season.
There are positives already, as Jorgen Strand Larsen is a doubt for Wolves. He is one of the best forward players for either team. It’s match-winners which could settle a low-margin game via a moment of magic.
Daniel Farke during Leeds clash against Newcastle.
Photo by DARREN STAPLES/AFP via Getty Images
Leeds United have the fewest shots on target in the Premier League after four games
Leeds need those types of players who can conjure something up out of nothing, which is especially prudent given that Daniel Farke has a poor managerial record vs Wolves.
It’s why, arguably, Willy Gnonto could start for Leeds at Molineux. The Italian has X-factor and guile. That said, Farke could be minded to play someone else — as he did against Fulham.
Farke opted for Brenden Aaronson against Fulham but Jack Harrison has a strong career record vs Wolves. There are options to consider, but Leeds need more answers to the creativity problem.
Leeds fans are concerned about output vs Wolves, and they have every right to be worried following the latest reveal. Leeds have scored just once so far and none from open play.
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Lukas Nmecha’s penalty secured a valuable three points against an Everton side who have been much stronger since. But that doesn’t tell the whole story of Leeds’ worries in front of goal.
Leeds scored 95 goals last term, with the most xG in the league to boot. Leeds have been compared to Fulham previously by EFL expert Ali Maxwell due to their quality in both boxes last term.
Now, they carry little goal threat. FotMob has Leeds recorded as the fifth-worst team for xG with 3.8. Wolves have the least in the four games so far with 2.6.
But, FotMob also has a more worrying stat for Leeds’ efficiency in attack. Leeds have only had two shots on target per game on average with the lowest shot conversion rate (2.3%) as well.
Burnley and Sunderland average 2.3 per game, while Wolves have had 2.8. It’s a trend which, simply put, has to change. Leeds are trending as a relegation side on that front so far and it’s Farke’s job to rectify it.
Daniel Farke during Leeds' loss to Fulham.
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Tactical shift from Daniel Farke outlined by another Leeds data point
Farke has talked up tactical flexibility in the Premier League improving this season, while the approach to recruitment has been blatantly obvious regarding physicality and athleticism, with plenty of size.
For example, players such as Anton Stach have made Leeds significantly taller. That will be a crucial aspect for survival this term, with seven of the new players being 6’2″ or more.
Last season, Leeds were often the protagonists in possession and they also tended to press high, especially at Elland Road. They swarmed teams and kept them pinned back.
Now, Opta Analyst have a database which highlights PPDA (passes per defensive action). The higher the number, the less aggressive a team’s press tends to be.
Only West Ham United (19.0) have a higher number and more passive press than Leeds’ (17.0). Leeds are sitting deeper and have become more compact as an overall unit.
They have sacrificed some attacking impetus for a solid core, but it could be the best way to go in the long-term. They almost made it work against Fulham, too.