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The report below identifies fantasy-friendly and unfriendly NFL offenses while breaking down possible outcomes from each week’s offensive matchups.
Highlighted statistical variables include neutral game pass play and run play rates, success rate, expected points added (EPA) per play, shifts, motion and play-action pass play usage, offensive play volume and pace.
Neutral game run play rate and neutral game pass play rate
Offensive neutral game run and pass play percentages among NFL teams:
Current pass play rates should hold for the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins, as Buffalo is installed as a 12.0-point hold favorite, per PFF's scores and schedule. Dolphins running back De'Von Achane caught 15-of-15 targets for 127 receiving yards and two touchdowns in addition to rushing 34 times for 159 rushing yards and one touchdown while earning a 81.6 PFF offense grade in Miami’s two 2024 games against Buffalo. The Bills will be without defensive tackle Ed Oliver (ankle), whose 92.1 PFF defense grade ranks first among Bills defenders while potentially missing a starting inside linebacker. Their 14 explosive run plays allowed are two more than the next closest defense.