Mike McDaniel is considered such an obvious favourite to be the first NFL head coach fired this season that most sportsbooks didn’t even bother to offer a market.
In fact, the Miami Dolphins might have already made a coaching change if they didn’t travel this week on short rest to face the Buffalo Bills on Thursday Night Football.
When he arrived in Miami in 2022, McDaniel was tasked with building an elite offence around quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, that could make the Dolphins a perennial contender in the loaded AFC.
Miami went a combined 20-14 and made the playoffs in each of McDaniel’s first two seasons as head coach.
However, injuries, a lack of depth, and what I would describe as the general sense of dysfunction that followed seemed to hold the Dolphins from winning when it mattered most.
After one-and-done playoff exits in 2022 and 2023, Miami went 8-9 in 2024 and ultimately failed to reach the postseason for the first time under McDaniel.
Truth be told, I’d give McDaniel an A+ for the job he did when the tools that he had in his first three seasons.
However, Tagovailoa’s injuries and more importantly his limitations as a quarterback, Tyreek Hill’s antics, and a lack of depth on both sides of the ball left me concerned that the Dolphins would take a step back this season.
All signs pointed towards dysfunction throughout a bizarre summer in which it seemed McDaniel, general manager Chris Grier, Tagovailoa, and Hill spent too much time addressing concerns about the internal dynamics of the franchise instead of how they could improve.
In my Game of Throws season preview article for Miami, my FanDuel Best Bet was a two-team parlay with the Dolphins and New York Jets to miss the playoffs.
Three weeks later, Miami and New York are stuck in the AFC East basement with a combined 0-4 record.
Both teams face the threat of falling to 0-3 as significant road underdogs against superior opponents this week.
The Jets are up to +6.5 at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Dolphins are the biggest NFL Week 3 underdog on the board at +11.5 at Buffalo.
All signs point towards the Bills extending their perfect start to the season with a blowout win over Miami.
I’ll fade the Dolphins again and lock in three FanDuel Best Bets for Thursday Night Football in this Wednesday, September 17th, 2025, edition of Morning Coffee.
Bills Expected To Add To Dolphins Nightmare Start on Thursday Night Football
On Sunday morning, I was moments away from giving out New England Patriots +2.5 as a FanDuel Best Bet.
I had already bet the Patriots, but just as I started to type out my justification for the pick, I deleted the play from my column.
I understood things were bad in Miami, but did I believe they really bad enough to justify calling 0-1 New England a FanDuel Best Bet when they were on the road, with the temperature feeling like 35 degrees Celsius with the humidity?
The Dolphins had home-field advantage, in sweltering conditions, against a division rival they had won seven in a row against, in essentially a must-win game.
I didn’t know that Tagovailoa would complete 26-of-32 pass attempts for 315 yards and two touchdowns.
I didn’t know Hill would register 100+ receiving yards for just the third time since Week 1 of last season.
I didn’t know the Patriots would miss two extra points, take 12 penalties, and give up a punt return touchdown in the fourth quarter.
If I had known all those things would happen, I wouldn’t have bet New England to cover.
The fact that all the above happened and the Patriots still pulled off a 33-27 upset win speaks volumes.
Now the Dolphins must pick up the pieces and travel to Buffalo on a short week to face the reigning NFL MVP Josh Allen and a Buffalo side that is currently the second choice to win the Super Bowl at +550 at FanDuel.
Following a thrilling comeback win over the only team with shorter Super Bowl odds in the Baltimore Ravens, the Bills cruised to a 30-10 win over the Jets in Week 2.
Buffalo’s defence held Justin Fields to 3-of-11 for 27 passing yards before he left the game with a concussion.
Allen threw for 148 yards, ran for 59 yards, and didn’t record a single touchdown in the victory.
Still, the Bills handed the Jets their largest home loss in the head-to-head series since 2021.
That victory was Buffalo’s NFL-best 21st win by 20 or more points over the last five seasons.
The Bills improved to 25-6 straight up in division games since the start of the 2020 season, including 10 straight division wins at Highmark Stadium.
After hanging 41 points on the Ravens in Week 1 and then putting up 30 points against the Jets in Week 2, how many points will Buffalo score against the worst defence in the NFL in Week 3?
Josh Allen - Total TDs vs. Opponent (Including Playoffs)
1. Miami - 45 (40 passing, 5 rushing)
2. New England - 29 (24 passing, 5 rushing)
3t. Kansas City - 24 (19 passing, 5 rushing)
3t. New York Jets - 24 (16 passing, 8 rushing)
More stats heading into Thursday night ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/R75qsq9K8F
— Buffalo Bills PR (@BuffaloBillsPR) September 17, 2025
Allen is 7-0 as a starting quarterback on Thursday Night Football.
The MVP has gone 12-2 with a 77.0 Total QBR in 14 career regular season starts against Miami.
Over their last eight meetings at Highmark Stadium, the Bills have gone 8-0 with a 15.3 average margin of victory.
Buffalo has averaged 36.1 points per game in that span.
Perhaps the Bills let their foot off the gas a little bit again on a short week against an inferior opponent.
However, with home games against Miami, the New Orleans Saints, and the New England Patriots on deck before a pre-bye Week 6 trip to face the Atlanta Falcons, I could easily envision Buffalo going 6-0 and scoring 30+ points in every game before their Week 7 bye.
If you’re wondering about my Bills season future, it was Buffalo to win the AFC East parlayed with the Jets and the New Orleans Saints to miss the playoffs.
Not a bad way to showcase the benefit of being able to parlay futures on the FanDuel app.
As for Thursday Night Football, I’ll lock in Dalton Kincaid over 27.5 receiving yards as a FanDuel Best Bet.
The 25th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft was limited by injuries in 2024, but all signs point towards a career year in his third season.
Josh Allen on his connection with Dalton Kincaid: "He's very shifty for a big guy.. Getting him involved in the deep passing game and allowing him to use his size.. I think he is as talented as any TE in the league and I've got to be better for him." #Bills #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/QjqipViCYU
— alex brasky (@alexbrasky) September 3, 2025
Kincaid has averaged four receptions for 42.5 yards through the first two games of the season, clearing 37+ receiving yards against both the Ravens and Jets.
Last season, Kincaid went 2-for-2 clearing 32+ receiving yards against Miami, averaging four receptions for 32.5 yards.
We cashed Indianapolis Colts tight end Tyler Warren’s receiving yards prop when he went for 76 yards against the Dolphins in Week 1.
Then in Week 2, Patriots tight end Hunter Henry disappointed with one catch for nine yards, in part because teammate and fellow tight end Austin Hooper popped with 38 yards on three catches.
Allen is not on Buffalo’s injury report, and all signs point towards him lighting up the Miami defence on Thursday.
Yard per route run rate leaders at TE through two weeks:
3.26 - Tucker Kraft
2.82 - Tyler Warren
2.28 - Trey McBride
1.91 - Harold Fannin Jr.
1.84 - Sam LaPorta
1.81 - Dalton Kincaid
1.71 - Juwan Johnson
1.64 - Travis Kelce
(Source: @FantasyPtsData)
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 16, 2025
I’ll lock in Kincaid over 27.5 receiving yards as a FanDuel Best Bet for Thursday Night Football.
Considering Allen’s ability to spread the ball around against a suspect Dolphins defence, and the relatively low receiving yards props for the Bills, I’m interested to see how Kincaid, Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Josh Palmer, and James Cook fare against FanDuel’s numbers.
Have a great day, everyone!