The New England Patriots are back in the win column, and for the first time in a calendar year do not own a losing record. Now sitting at 1-1 after Sunday’s 33-27 victory over the Miami Dolphins, they have started trending up after what was a disappointing season opener.
Of course, it it far too early to tell what kind of team the Patriots are developing into and whether or not they will be able to push for a playoff spot when all is said and done. What we do know, is that there are several promising areas to build on and a lot of weaknesses and issues still left to be addressed.
Add all of that up, and you get a team that is a middle-of-the pack squad across the board and accordingly ranked 18th in net points (-1) on the season.
NFL Team Tiers, Weeks 1-2
The graphic above illustrates where the Patriots lie relative to the other 31 teams in the NFL. Offensively, they are looking quite solid so far and seemingly taking a step forward after their underwhelming 2024 campaign. The defense, on the other hand, has had its problems during the early parts of the season.
A closer look at both areas, plus a split into the run and pass games, illustrates this.
For a more detailed explanation of the numbers presented in this breakdown, please click here.
Overall efficiency
### Category ### Number ### Rank
Points/Game 23.0 14th
Yards/Game 334.5 13th
EPA/Play 0.096 12th
DVOA 2.2% 16th
Success rate 44.1% 17th
Scoring % 40.0% 15th
Giveaways 1 7th
Turnover % 5.0% 19th
With two games in the books, the Patriots are one of the NFL’s most average offenses. Whether it is points, yards or the various efficiency metrics, the unit of coordinator Josh McDaniels is not far removed from the middle of the league in any category.
The only one that truly stands out is the number of giveaways, which has New England tied for seventh in the league. However, there is a caveat: based on turnover percentage — i.e. the rate of drives ending in turnovers — the team is only ranked 19th. Then again, the sample size is not necessarily an accurate predictor of future success or failure in any of those categories.
Still, as noted above, some early trends can be seen. And one of them is the passing offense looking fairly decent.
Passing offense
### Category ### Number ### Rank
Yards/Game 243.5 9th
Net yards/Attempt 6.4 11th
Dropback EPA 0.252 8th
Pass DVOA 34.7% 8th
Success rate 48.8% 9th
YAC/Reception 4.8 16th
Adjusted sack rate 9.4% 22nd
Pass block win rate 55.0% 25th
As can be seen, the team’s passing attack is in the top third int the NFL in both volume and efficiency. It goes without saying that Drake Maye’s career performance against the Dolphins in Week 2 — when he set several new career marks while completing 83 percent of his passes for 230 yards and a pair of touchdowns — plays a big part in that. The goal will be to build on that performance, while simultaneously also improving in the pass protection department.
If the Patriots can do that, they seemingly have the foundation in place to take another step forward. Look no further than the numbers posted by their starting QB.
Drake Maye stats
### Category ### Number ### Rank
Attempts 69 12th
Completions 49 6th
Completion % 71.0% 6th
Yards 517 9th
Yards/Attempt 7.5 12th
TDs 3 10th
INTs 1 12th
Sacks 7 23rd
EPA/Play 0.241 8th
CPOE 6.3 8th
Whether you look at volume or efficiency stats, Drake Maye is a top third quarterback in the NFL through two games. Despite his pass protection not always being up to the task, as already outlined above, he has repeatedly managed to put the Patriots in a competitive position and played the best single game of his career against Miami in Week 2.
That said, it might be time to be a bit of a Debbie Downer here: neither the Dolphins nor the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1 are fielding top-tier pass defenses. Time will therefore tell how much of Maye’s hot start was aided by the opposition.
Rushing offense
### Category ### Number ### Rank
Yards/Game 91 23rd
Yards/Attempt 3.9 22nd
Rush EPA -0.232 29th
Run DVOA -6.3% 16th
Success rate 34.1% 27th
YCO/Run 2.62 19th
Run block win rate 73.0% 11th
Adjusted line yards 4.64 5th
Run stuff rate 13.0% 4th
The Patriots want to be balanced on offense, and they did accomplish that goal in Week 2 against Miami. However, the overall success so far this season has been limited: New England’s ground game, mostly with Week 1 pulling it down, is ranked near the bottom of the league in several categories. Not among those: the ones evaluating blocking. Statistically, the Patriots have been better blocking the run than the pass so far this year.
Defensive efficiency
### Category ### Number ### Rank
Points/Game 23.5 19th
Yards/Game 373.5 25th
EPA/Play 0.099 25th
DVOA 27.3% 30th
Success rate 44.9% 20th
Scoring % 40.0% 16th
Takeaways 2 11th
Turnover % 10.0% 12th
Missed tackles 25 31st
Not all has been bad for the Patriots on the defensive side of the ball so far — more on that in a second — but overall the unit has not been up to the challenge. The big issues have been big plays and missed tackles, as evidenced by the statistics. New England has been comparatively OK at keeping opponents off the board, but the overall performance has left a lot to be desired.
That said, there is one area that truly stands out above the rest: New England’s run defense has quietly been one of the best in football.
Run defense
### Category ### Number ### Rank
Yards/Game 58.5 3rd
Yards/Attempt 3.0 3rd
Rush EPA -0.245 4th
Run DVOA -27.4% 5th
Success rate 26.3% 1st
Run stop win rate 39.0% 1st
Adjusted line yards 2.77 2nd
Run stuff rate 38.0% 1st
New England has been stout against the run, particularly because of two men: Milton Williams and Christian Barmore. The two starting defensive tackles, who have been on the field for a respective 73 and 71 percent of defensive snaps so far this season, have anchored the Patriots pass defense. Their win rates in the running game reflect this, with Williams ranked fourth in the NFL (63%) and Barmore seventh (54%).
While the quality of opposition can again be questioned, there is no denying that the two high-priced defenders did what they are being paid to do: dominate. That is also what they are doing in the pass rushing department.
Williams’ pass rush win rate (23%) is clearly the highest among interior defensive linemen. Meanwhile, both Harold Landry III (20%; 18th) and K’Lavon Chaisson (18%; 19th) are ranked in the top 20 on the edge. Barmore is missing from the top of the NFL leaderboard here, but there is a simple reason for that: he is facing one of the highest double-team rates among all NFL defensive tackles, and therefore helping free up the likes of Williams and company.
And yet, despite all the disruptive talent up front, New England’s defense and particularly its pass defense have been lacking. So, what gives?
Pass defense
### Category ### Number ### Rank
Yards/Game 315 32nd
Net yards/Attempt 8.4 29th
Dropback EPA 0.263 28th
Pass DVOA 56.4% 30th
Success rate 53.8% 29th
Sacks 9 1st
Adjusted sack rate 12.2% 2nd
Pass rush win rate 43.0% 9th
Despite being among the best pass-rushing units in the league, the Patriots’ pass defense as a whole has been bad. This mostly falls back on the two categories mentioned above, big plays and missed tackles, but also due to individual struggles in the secondary and especially at linebacker.
New England needs to find a way to fix those. Of course, getting Christian Gonzalez back will certainly help the entire unit.
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