Where will the Merseyside derby be won and lost on Saturday? We pick out five areas of the game that could prove crucial when Liverpool host Everton.
The Merseyside derby is always hugely important to Liverpool and Everton, but it also feels significant to the wider Premier League this time.
Both teams have started the season well. The Reds have four wins from four, beginning their title defence in effective fashion. The Toffees, meanwhile, haven’t finished above 10th in the table since 2018-19 yet currently sit sixth in the Premier League standings.
Liverpool are strong favourites with the Opta supercomputer to win the derby but Everton have rarely arrived at Anfield in such fine fettle. Here are five factors that may determine the colour Merseyside is painted at full-time on Saturday.
Will Mohamed Salah Kickstart His Premier League Season?
Mohamed Salah is not like most players. He has scored twice and assisted a dramatic 100th- minute winner, yet it feels like he hasn’t started the 2025-26 league campaign that well. Most footballers would love that level of output.
Salah has averaged 0.50 non-penalty goals and assists in the league this season, half his rate from 2024-25 (1.01) and well below the average for his Liverpool career (0.88).
It will partly be because the 33-year-old has been less involved in Liverpool’s play than in years past. Salah is averaging 42.9 touches per 90 minutes, at least four fewer than in any other Premier League campaign with the Reds. If that doesn’t sound significant, his rate for open-play touches in the opposition’s penalty area has almost halved since last season, from 10.1 to 6.0 per 90.
Mohamed Salah Touch Map 2025-26
The proportion of his touches that are in the opposition’s area is now 13.5%, down from 21% last season. Salah can score or assist from just about anywhere, but this shift will affect his output.
Across 359 minutes of Premier League football this season, Salah has averaged just 0.08xG from non-penalty shots. That rate is lower than 44 players to have played at least 300 minutes in the competition this season, and more worrying when considering he averaged 0.49 in 2024-25.
Salah Non-Penalty Shots 2025-26
A visit from Everton could be just what he needs. With eight Premier League goals against Everton, Salah only trails Steven Gerrard (nine) in the derby goal rankings for Liverpool. He has two derby assists too, but he will need to be on the ball more and in more threatening areas.
Diogo Jota’s final goal was the winner in this fixture. Nobody would be surprised if Salah honoured him by doing likewise on Saturday, especially after being boosted by his Champions League goal against Atlético Madrid in midweek. He was much busier in that match on Wednesday night, attempting six shots worth 0.92 xG.
Jack Grealish Could Be Everton’s X Factor
The Everton faithful took Jack Grealish to their collective heart immediately. How often will they see a £100 million player wearing the famous blue shirt?
He has made a fantastic start. Grealish recently became the first Everton player to provide at least two assists in consecutive Premier League games. His red-hot (or should that be ‘blue hot’?) start helped him become the competition’s Player of the Month for the first time in his career.
Grealish also has an excellent record against Liverpool. He has more goal contributions in meetings with the Reds (seven) than any other club in his Premier League career.
Admittedly, this is largely down to his efforts in Aston Villa’s remarkable 7-2 win over the Reds in 2020. Grealish scored twice and collected a hat-trick of assists, making him the only player in Premier League history to record five goal contributions in a match against Liverpool.
A repeat won’t occur this weekend, though the on-loan Manchester City winger will be vital to Everton’s attack. Likely starting on the left of the attacking midfield trident in Everton’s 4-2-3-1 formation, it’s unclear which right-back Grealish will aim to torment.
Dominik Szoboszlai started the Reds’ previous three league games after Jeremie Frimpong began the Community Shield and Premier League opener against Bournemouth. Conor Bradley played 45 minutes at Burnley last weekend, while Frimpong got the nod against Atlético.
Whomever Arne Slot selects they will need to be on their game. Grealish is joint-fourth in the Premier League for completed take-ons this term, while only Bruno Fernandes has created more chances in open play.
Grealish Open-Play Chances Created for Everton 2025-26
If he can get past Liverpool’s right-back, Thierno Barry or Beto need to be ready as a key pass will likely be heading in their direction.
Will the Early Kick-off Work in Everton’s Favour?
Jürgen Klopp was a vocal opponent to 12:30 Saturday kick-offs, particularly after his Liverpool side had played a European game on Wednesday night. That will be the case here, after the Reds beat Atlético Madrid 3-2 in dramatic fashion in midweek.
Liverpool’s results gave Klopp ample reason to be annoyed. Between August 2022 and April 2023, the Reds drew three and lost three of their six 12:30 Saturday kick-offs in the Premier League. That run included a goalless draw at Everton.
However, the Merseyside derby in question was one of five away games in that six-game sequence. Slot’s Reds only had two lunchtime Saturday kick-offs in the league last season and they were both on the road too. Such matches are inevitably more difficult, but they won both – 2-0 versus Ipswich on the opening day of the season and 1-0 at Crystal Palace in October.
As chance would have it, Liverpool’s last home league game in this time slot was against Everton in October 2023. Even though Ashley Young was sent off in just the 37th minute, Liverpool didn’t break the deadlock until Salah converted a 75th-minute penalty. He later added a second goal in stoppage time.
As much as the swift turnaround will be tough, whenever Liverpool have played a 12:30 game on a Saturday following a Champions League game on the Wednesday, the league match has been away. The kick-off time may not be the automatic advantage for Everton that many assume.
Everton Must Avoid Dark Arts to End David Moyes’ Anfield Drought
There is no sugarcoating David Moyes’ record against Liverpool at Anfield. It is horrendous.
The Scot is winless in 20 league matches at Anfield, collecting a paltry six points from a possible 60. It is the joint-most Premier League games any manager has played at a stadium without a victory.
The problem for Moyes is that he’s tied with himself for this unwanted record, thanks to also failing to win in 20 games at Stamford Bridge. At least he doesn’t have to worry about traveling to Chelsea until mid-December.
David Moyes Record away at Anfield in the Premier League
Indiscipline has been part of the problem. The Merseyside derby has seen more red cards than any other Premier League fixture. Moyes’ Everton account for a large proportion of the total of 25, with 11 amassed on his watch.
It is the most any team have had under one manager in a fixture. The tally includes dismissals for Andy van der Meyde and Steven Pienaar in Anfield derby defeats.
All eyes will be on match referee Darren England once the derby tackles thunder in. He sent off Ryan Gravenberch at Anfield in the final match of last season, though that was for a professional foul rather than a dangerous challenge. England hasn’t shown a red card in his 14 previous Everton matches.
Moyes has rarely taken such an in-form side to Anfield. If his players can maintain their discipline then it could help him secure a famous first victory at the stadium.
The Set-Piece Factor Could Prove Decisive
When these teams met for the final time at Goodison Park, Everton opened the scoring from a set-play. With possession likely to be at a premium for the Blues on Saturday, this may prove their best route to scoring once again.
While Everton cannot match up to Arsenal for dead-ball proficiency, they have been among the best of the rest. They scored 19 goals from set-pieces in 2023-24, a total that has been topped only 12 times in the Premier League from 2009-10 onward.
If not as reliant on them since Moyes replaced Sean Dyche, they remain valuable. Everton’s one set-play goal this season opened the scoring in their 3-2 win at Wolves. They scored twice from such situations in a 3-1 victory at Fulham in May, while their winner at Crystal Palace in February came from a corner. Their importance on the road is all too clear.
Everton have also had both the most shots (24) and the greatest share of shots from set-pieces (50.0%) in the Premier League this season, while only Arsenal (3.2) have generated a higher xG than the Toffees from dead-ball situations (3.1).
Everton Set Piece Strength
This is pertinent as Liverpool possess one of the greatest shares of shots faced from set-pieces (44.1% – behind only Chelsea’s 46.3%). The Reds lost a 2-0 lead against 10-man Newcastle thanks to goals from dead-ball situations too.
They deserve credit for recovering from that to hold the supreme threat of Arsenal at bay in their next match. The Everton fans at the Anfield Road end will get very excited any time their side gets a corner, though.
Premier League Stats Opta
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