**Advantage Buccaneers: Third Down Defense**
Tampa Bay's third-down offense isn't living up to the very lofty standards it set in 2024, but it's third-down _defense_ is doing even better than a year ago, when it ranked 14th with a success rate allowed of 38.1%. Through four games in 2025, that number is down to 32.7%, which ranks third in the NFL. If the Buccaneers can keep the Seahawks in mostly longer third-down situations, needing seven yard or more, they could have a significant advantage, as they have allowed just five conversions in 22 such attempts. Meanwhile, Seattle's offense, while off to a very good start overall, is in the lower half of the league in converting third downs, ranking 17th with a 39.1% success rate.
**Advantage Seahawks: Red Zone Defense**
After a good start to the season in its first two wins, the Buccaneers' offense has struggled mightily in the red zone over the past two games while going 1-1. In a narrow win over the Jets and a six-point loss to the Eagles, the Buccaneers only took one of their seven red zone possessions all the way to the end zone. One of those seven trips inside the 20 ended without any points at all, as Baker Mayfield was intercepted at the goal line by Jihaad Campbell in last week's defeat. Those struggles have dropped the Bucs all the way to a tie for 29th in the NFL in red zone touchdown percentage, at 36.4%. Meanwhile, the Seattle defense has been stingy in that part of the field, allowing a touchdown rate of just 46.2%, which is tied for sixth-best in the league.
**X-Factor: Buccaneers' Cornerback Health**
Sam Darnold and the Seahawks' offense has thrown the ball well, especially in terms of yards per play, as their 8.60-yard average on pass plays ranks second in the NFL. Darnold is averaging a robust 9.00 yards per pass attempt, also good for second in the league behind Baltimore's Lamar Jackson, and his favorite target, third-year wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba, is averaging 15.5 yards per grab. The Buccaneers' pass defense has shown significant improvement in 2025 after finishing 29th in the NFL last year, and currently ranks 11th in yards allowed per game at 187.8. However, slowing down Smith-Njigba could be tougher if both Jamel Dean (hip) and Benjamin Morrison are sidelined by injuries.