You might have noticed that when it comes to pure passing numbers, Josh Allen isn't blowing away the rest of the field. In fact, his 964 passing yards rank seventh among NFL quarterbacks entering Week 5. But the reigning MVP is now a runaway favorite to repeat (for now). Allen can get his team to 5-0 for the first time in his career if the Bills defeat the Patriots at home Sunday night. He has stretched out his lead in part because some of the old favorites have fallen. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens lost badly to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs last week. Baltimore is now 1-3, and Jackson is dealing with a hamstring injury. Joe Burrow, of course, is out until December. For now, Justin Herbert is the next in line – even after a surprising loss. Here's a look at Allen's case and the other emerging favorites:
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen looks out of the tunnel before the game against the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, Sept. 28, 2025, at Highmark Stadium.
Joshua Bessex, Buffalo News
Josh Allen
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We've said it over and over: The Bills haven't yet played a complete game, but they're 4-0 – and they've scored 30-plus points in all four games. We also know how close their latest shave was against the lowly Saints – until Allen, who'd been having a ho-hum day, by his lofty standards, reminded everyone what he's capable of on back-to-back plays in the fourth quarter. On third-and-5 from the Bills’ 45-yard line, Allen ripped off the play of the game, a bruising, juking 27-yard scramble up the middle. Then he followed with a well-designed 28-yard strike to Dalton Kincaid on a wheel route down the sideline. Thanks for playing, Saints.
**Odds:** -105 (Bet365), +100 (BetMGM), -105 (FanDuel).
**This week:** vs. Patriots, 8:20 p.m. Sunday.
Justin Herbert
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Herbert and coach Jim Harbaugh have seemed like a great pairing so far, and until last week's road loss to the Giants, they had suddenly looked like the new team to beat in the AFC West. They might still be. Herbert now has the best odds to overtake Allen in the MVP race. He's fourth in the NFL in passing with 1,063 yards, and the Chargers still sit atop the division. But if they remain there, they will have earned it. Tackle Joe Alt is unlikely to play Sunday after spraining his right ankle at the Meadowlands last week. Alt had moved over from right tackle to left tackle when Rashawn Slater suffered a season-ending patellar tendon tear in August.
**Odds:** +550 (Bet365), +550 (BetMGM), +600 (FanDuel).
**This week:** vs. Commanders, 4:25 p.m. Sunday.
Patrick Mahomes
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Look who's back – back in the AFC playoff picture and back in the MVP race. Mahomes and the Chiefs, the old thorns in the sides of the rest of the AFC, gave their foes plenty of hope with back-to-back losses to open the season. Last week, they crawled back to .500 and dealt a severe blow to the Ravens (and to QB Jackson's MVP hopes), sending Baltimore to 1-3 with a resounding win. Mahomes looked like a three-time champion, throwing for 270 yards and four touchdowns in a turn-back-the-clock type of performance. The Chiefs got back Xavier Worthy from a shoulder injury and could get more players in the weeks to come.
**Odds:** +650 (Bet365), +650 (BetMGM), +650 (FanDuel).
**This week:** at Jaguars, 8:15 p.m. Monday.
Matthew Stafford
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You might remember that during the offseason, Stafford, 37, briefly toyed with the idea of looking for another place to play. He decided to stay put, it was the smart move. Even with a loss to the 49ers on Thursday, he and the Rams are well-positioned to make a run for the NFC West. And by the way: Don't blame Stafford for that 26-23 overtime loss. The old vet threw for 389 yards and drove his team for the game-tying field goal with 2 seconds remaining in regulation. And when the Rams bypassed a chance to tie it up in OT with another field goal, they handed the ball to Kyren Williams on fourth-and-short at the 11. He was stood up.
**Odds:** +1400 (Bet365), +1200 (BetMGM), +1400 (FanDuel).
**This week:** lost 26-23 to 49ers Thursday.
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