When the Seattle Seahawks’ schedule was released and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were on the list, it was already known it would be a tough game. Tampa Bay may not be a top Super Bowl contender, but they are an extremely competent team.
They don’t have TJ Watt or Nick Bosa on the defensive line, but they are extremely aggressive. They have success against the run and pass. On offense, Baker Mayfield isn’t among the best QBs in the league, but he’s more than capable of leading his team to victory. The team’s last two OCs have become HCs; Dave Canales and Liam Coem have respectively taken over with the Panthers and Jaguars, and Josh Grizzard is expected to be in the running for head coaching at some point in the future.
Despite numerous injuries, including starting left tackle Tristan Wirfs (who only returned in the last game), their two starting guards, star receiver Mike Evans, and defensive tackle Calijah Kancey, the team is 3-1. Their only loss was against the Super Bowl champions, the Philadelphia Eagles, by just six points, and they held onto their chances of winning until the end of the game.
It’s going to be a great matchup.
Let’s go preview this game!
Baker Mayfield and his offense will put Seattle’s defense to the test
Mayfield is third in the league in passing TDs with eight, and he’s only thrown one interception, which came late in the last game against Eagles. He’s capable of making all types of throws and good at escaping the pocket.
Despite being the fourth-most pressured QB in the league with 66 pressures, he’s 12th in sacks and has the seventh-most rushing yards among QBs with 129. More than half of the Bucs’ runs of more than 10 yards were scrambles by him. It’s worth remembering that against Kyler Murray, especially late in the game, the defense conceded advances in these types of situations.
This is the danger. The Seahawks defense has been able to consistently pressure the opposing QB. The big problem is that the team has difficulty converting these pressures into sacks. Mayfield has been spectacular, buying time in the pocket and gaining yards.
Emeka Egbuka (third in receiving TDs with four) has been a recurring target at all three levels of the field. With Chris Godwin’s return, attention will need to be divided, and Egbuka can find space.
Something that has been recurring is the use of intermediate routes and “isolating” Egbuka on a deeper route. Mayfield has also been using the pump-fake technique extensively to manipulate the safeties. It’s worth noting that Julian Love may not be available in this game, which would be a huge loss.
PS: Charlie Heck is the second OL in pressures allowed in the league with 18 in three games, behind only the Browns’ Cornelius Lucas, who has conceded 28 (18 in the last two games). This should be an avenue worth exploring, as the first EDGE sack only came in Week 4 by Uchenna Nwosu.
Pay attention to the checkdown
I’ve included the running backs’ performance separately. The Bucs’ running game has been quite volatile, just like Seattle’s. Bucky Irving has 237 yards and Ken Walker has 244, but the Bucs player has 71 carries and the Seahawks’ 58.
It’s still important to be cautious, as Bucky Irving only needs one tackle to gain a lot of yards.
However, there’s another area the team needs to be mindful of. The Seahawks gave up a lot of receiving yards to Christian McCaffrey in Week 1, and for checkdowns at key moments in other games (see the Cardinals’ final TD on TNF). Irving has been heavily used as a pass catcher. 19 targets, 19 receptions, 193 yards, and 2 TDs. He gained over 100 receiving yards against the Eagles’ defense.
(Note: Irving is dealing with a foot injury and might not play, in which case Rachaad White would be the starter)
PS: The Bucs also struggled to defend the RBs coming out of the backfield to catch passes. Bijan Robinson gained over 100 yards and the Bucs, Eagles and Jets all had a RB in the top 3 receiving yards of the game.
Toughness: The best word to describe this Bucs DL
I’m a big fan of Todd Bowles’ defense and especially his defensive line. Probably no one (outside of Vea0 will be among the stars at their respective positions, but they’ve performed incredibly well.
The Bucs lost Calijah Kancey, but they found a solid performance from rookie Elijah Roberts. A fifth-round pick, the former SMU player has been producing with a very explosive first step.
YaYa Diaby is one of the most underrated players on this team. A mix of explosiveness and a good bend to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
An even bigger challenge will be running against this team. The front seven works very well together.
Logan Hall manages to sustain the double block, which opens up space for LB SirVocea Dennis to advance and make the tackle, along with Diaby coming from the backside.
On this play, Lavonte David and Hall quickly escape their blocks to make the tackle. Seattle struggled with Patrick Queen against the Steelers and Mack Wilson against the Cardinals, allowing these linebackers to infiltrate the backfield. David (2nd in pressures) and Dennis (9th in run stops), despite some coverage issues, have excelled defending the run game or being used in blitzes.
This defense also features Tykee Smith, seventh in tackles, and Antoine Winfield Jr., second in pressures as a safety. Rookie Jacob Parrish played very well at nickel but may need to be moved to the outside with the possible absences of Jamel Dean, Benjamin Morrison, and Christian Izien.
Sam Darnold’s performance against pressure/blitz should decide the game
The Bucs are second in pressures and are in the top 10 in blitzes sent. Tampa doesn’t hesitate to send multiple players after the QB, even if it means leaving some open space. In the play above, the TE was open and would have a big run if the pass was caught.
Once again, six players go after the QB. If the OL gets the QB even a minimum of time, the space left can be exploited.
Sam Darnold is the second-best QB in the league against blitzes, according to PFF. He has remained solid in the pocket, waiting until the last moment to make the pass.
A trend for the Bucs, in the games I watched, has been a high use of man coverage (even to combine with blitz situations) when defending the red zone.
Seattle can use its play-action and rub routes to overcome this type of coverage.
Final Thoughts
Even with the loss to the San Francisco 49ers, the Buccaneers should be the Seahawks’ biggest test so far this season. Think back to last year, when the Seahawks only beat two teams with a record above .500: the Broncos in Bo Nix’s debut and the Rams with their backup lineup in the final week of the regular season.
Beating the Bucs, in addition to maintaining confidence, should strengthen their schedule, which could be crucial for securing a wildcard spot if they can’t win the NFC West.