I mentioned that the Cubs were in an elimination game yesterday to a non-sportsball fan friend and they asked if this was for all the marbles. Well, it was just for one marble. The Cubs won and now they are on to the next marble. And the discourse. Personally I’ve never had a big beef with the Brewers. It’s probably the Sconnie blood going through my veins, but aside from Ryan Bruan I’ve generally liked/tolerated the Brewers, and always had a good time at Miller Park (not using the dumb new name). I loved those bad-but-fun Prince Fielder and Rickie Weeks teams. I’d also be annoyed if another nearby fanbase frequently took over my ballpark, though it’s not quite as bad as it was when I lived in the area. And it’s also kind of funny that the Cubs had long been the biggest rival of the Brewers and the Cubs generally couldn’t give two shits about them when teams like the Cardinals and Mets exist (dying laughing). It’s more of a rivalry now, and I gotta admit I am not sad that the Packers and Bears are both on bye this week, and thus the Cubs aren’t catching strays in the Packers content I usually consume.
The Brewers clinched the division back on Sep 21, and went 2-4 in their remaining games as they mostly took their foot off the gas, losing series to the Dads and Reds. With the bye it’s been nearly two weeks since they’ve played a game that counts, hopefully that means they’ll come out flat. One can hope!
The Cubs are coming off a wild card series win over the Padres. The pitching and defense looked pretty good! The offense…eh. Though the Padres had the third best pitching in the league, and had by FAR the best bullpen (3.06 ERA vs second best ERA of 3.41), and the Cubs saw a lot of it, and the wind was blowing in for two games, and (fill in a few other excuses). Hopefully they look sharper this series against the Brewers pitching, who have *checks notes* the SECOND best ERA in the league. Yayyyyyyy.
Overall Team Rankings
Some stat
Runs
Home Runs
BB%
K%
wRC+
BSR
Defense
P K%
P BB%
P ERA
P FIP
Cubs
793 (5th)
223 (6th)
9.0% (7th)
20.7% (6th)
110 (6th)
10.9 (3rd)
16.1 (2nd)
21.4% (21st)
6.9% (1st)
3.81 (9th)
4.16 (20th)
Beers
806 (3rd)
166 (22nd)
9.1% (6th)
20.3% (5th)
107 (9th)
15.1 (1st)
3.2 (6th)
23.7% (6th)
8.8% (22nd)
3.59 (2nd)
3.91 (6th)
Team Leaders
Cubs
OBP: Kyle Tucker (.377)
ISO: Busch (.261)
HR: Busch (34)
R+RBI: PCA (186)
wRC+: Busch (140)
BSR: PCA (6.7)
Defense: PCA (17.5)
Batter WAR: PCA (5.4)
SP K/9: Boyd (7.71)
SP BB/9: Shota (1.62)
SP ERA: Horton (2.53)
SP FIP: Horton (3.55)
RP K/9: Kittredge (13.29)
RP BB/9: Kittredge (1.25)
RP ERA: Pomeranz (1.94)
RP FIP: Kittredge (2.40)
P WAR: Boyd (3.4)
Beers
OBP: Andrew Vaughn (.375)
ISO: Jackson Cheerios (.193)
HR: Yelich (29)
R+RBI: Yelich (191)
wRC+: Vaughn (142)
BSR: Cherry-o (3.1)
Defense: Joey Ortiz (13.9)
Batter WAR: Brice Turang (4.4)
SP K/9: Misiorowski (11.87)
SP BB/9: Priester (2.76)
SP ERA: Peralta (2.70)
SP FIP: Chad Patrick (3.50)
RP K/9: Trevor Megill (11.49)
RP BB/9: Tobias Myers (0.95)
RP ERA: Abner Uribe (1.75)
RP FIP: Megill (2.50)
P WAR: Peralta (3.6)
Who isn’t available?
The Cubs may have dodged a bullet with Bob Minocqua out with a lat strain for this series. The dude came back from a possibly career-ending arm injury, missing nearly two years, and out of the gate pitched like no time had passed at all. Old pal Jose Quintana has been on the shelf with a calf injury but seems likely to return for this series. Catcher William Contreras was literally banged up back in mid-September, taking a hit to his glove hand by a swing and missed a few games after the Brewers clinched. He’s expected to play this series.
On the Cubs side, the biggest name is likely ROY Cade Horton, who is recovering from a broken rib suffered last month. He’s theoretically eligible to return for game five if needed but it sounds like he won’t be called on this series. Miguel Amaya is working out and says he’s ready/available if needed but it sounds like he is not in the plans for now. Owen Caissie is on the concussion IL, and has resumed baseball activities. He should be available if needed.
Random aside to second guess the second guessing
I’ve got no complaints about Counsell leaving in Shota to face Tatis and Machado in game 2. This was only the second time through the order for him, the wind was blowing in, and you gotta let your stars step up against the other teams stars. He missed a pitch and paid for it. Even with the shifting optimal bullpen usage rules in the playoffs I still think it’s the right move, and some of the criticism is kind of insulting to Shota. Even aside from the Shota-ness I still think I’d disagree with the move if it was, say, Colin Rea as the bulk guy there instead.
Game Schedules, potential pitching matchups
K/9, BB/9, ERA, FIP listed for all. All games are broadcast on TBS, with Alex Faust and Ron Darling announcing.
Saturday: Matthew Boyd, LHP (7.71, 2.10, 3.21, 4.22) vs Freddy Peralta, RHP (10.39, 3.36, 2.70, 3.65), 1:08 PM CT in West Allis
Boyd looked shaky down the stretch, potentially due to his innings jump, but put a solid outing against the Padres in game one of the WC series. He allowed just two hits in 5.1 innings, but unfortunately one of them was a homer. He made two starts against the Brewers this year, and they knocked him around fairly well to the tune of 9 ER in 10 IP. Hopefully third time is the charm.
The Cubs have seen a lot of Peralta this year, and while I think of him as a Cubs killer they managed to get some licks on him. Overall in four starts, the Cubs scored 8 earnies in 21 innings, while striking out 22 times. One thing I always forget with Peralta is that he rarely goes deep into games because he racks up big pitch counts – he only pitched past the sixth inning in 2 starts out of 33 this year.
I’ll list the rest of the potential starters below since I have no clue how things will line up, (dying laughing). The remaining games are
Monday: 8:08 PM CT in West Allis
Wednesday: 4:08 PM CT in Chicago
Thursday: 8:08 PM CT in Chicago
Saturday Oct 8: 3:38 PM CT in West Allis
Somehow I missed the weird extra rest day between game 1 and 2? This is probably good for the Cubs pitching staff but come on MLB.
Cubs starters
Shota Imanaga, LHP (7.28, 1.93, 3.73, 4.86)
I put most of my thoughts on Shota in my aside earlier in this post. Ride with the guys that got you here, Cubs.
Jameson Taillon, RHP (6.80, 1.87, 3.68, 4.66)
I slagged on Taillon a bit going into the Wild Card series but after looking at his full season numbers, and especially his splits, I’ve been unfair to him. Before his injury in June, he had posted a 4.44 ERA and was giving up a .317 wOBA with 22 home runs in 95 IP. Since his return, he has a 1.57 ERA and opposing .236 wOBA in 34 innings. His new kick change, which he was still refining earlier in the season, has shown up big in his results against lefties, who have a .265 wOBA against him this year vs .320 in his career. I’ll zip any complaints if I see him listed as a probable pitcher this series.
Colin Rea, RHP (7.17, 2.49, 3.95, 4.12)
Rea has been the Shawn Camp Legacy Stealth Team MVP this season, giving tons of cromulent innings. With Horton likely out for the whole series, I would not be surprised to see a piggyback long man start with him and the previous title holder, Javy Assad.
Beers Starters
Quinn Priester, RHP (7.55, 2.86, 3.32, 4.01)
The Brewers traded for Priester in April in what seemed like a desparation move – almost all of their starting pitchers were recently injured or working their way back from an injury suffered in a previous season. Priester was a journeyman who couldn’t even stick with the Pirates and had hung on to the back end of the roster for the Red Sox going in to the 2025 season. So of course the Brewers pick him up and he posts a 3.32 ERA over 157 innings. He faced the Cubs three times this year – the Cubs blew him up for seven runs back in May, and managed to get plenty of batters on the basepaths in his other two starts but had just three runs to show for it.
Jose Quintana, LHP (6.08, 3.42, 3.96, 4.81)
Old pal Q has been bouncing around the league after being jettisioned in the 2021 fire sale, and put up the cromulent numbers that we always hoped for but never quite got in his time with the Cubs. I’ll still defend that trade to my grave, it’s a bummer it did not work out. He’s coming off a calf injury so may not be particularly sharp and/or will likely not go deep into a game. He only faced the Cubs once this year, back in early May, and the Cubs blew him up for six runs and three homers.
Jacob Misiorowski, RHP (11.86, 4.23, 4.36, 3.62)
The bloom is off the rose a bit for The Miz, who may end up being used as a bullpen fireman instead during the postseason. He’s still a strikeout machine but has had a lot more issues with control, leading to big early pitch counts. And also runs.
Chad Patrick, RHP (9.55, 3.01, 3.53, 3.53)
I’m not sure this Madden-AI-generated-name-ass player is real. Fangraphs tells me this guy is a rookie made 23 starts, including a start against the Cubs where he gave up 4 runs in 5 innings back in June. The Brewers mostly used him out of the pen down the stretch so it’s not clear if he might get a start.
Go Cubs. Or don’t. I can’t tell you what to do.