FOXBOROUGH – Are the Patriots pretenders or contenders?
They’re about to find out.
On Sunday night, Mike Vrabel’s team takes on the kings of the AFC East when they travel to Buffalo to play reigning MVP Josh Allen and the Bills. After a blowout win over Carolina, the Patriots head into this Week 5 matchup looking to see where they stack up among the AFC’s best.
Buffalo hasn’t been an easy place to play for the Patriots since Tom Brady left. The team is 1-5 in their last six matchups since 2020. Their only win inside Highmark Stadium was in 2021 when the two teams played in Gale Force winds.
The 2-2 Patriots are underdogs against the 4-0 Bills, and no one is surprised about that. What remains to be seen is how close Vrabel’s team is to contending. This matchup serves as a great measuring stick for New England and its quarterback, Drake Maye.
Here are five things to watch:
Drake Maye vs. Josh Allen
Statistically, Drake Maye is currently a top 10 quarterback in the NFL. He ranks first in completion percentage, fifth in passer rating, sixth in passing yards, sixth in completions, and is tied for eighth in passing touchdowns. Maye enters this week with more passing yards than Allen, and he’s tied with the Bills quarterback in passing touchdowns.
Can Maye keep it up? He’s about to face his biggest test this season with a talented Bills defense in a difficult environment. Buffalo has the No. 1-ranked passing defense in the NFL, allowing 125.8 passing yards per game. They also have a top 10 pass rush. We’ll see if Maye looks like a top quarterback on Sunday.
Patriots defense vs. Allen
Allen is a monster. The reigning MVP has led the Bills to four-straight wins to start this season with an offense that’s averaging 33.3 points per game. The Bills haven’t been held to under 30 points this season. Allen is the reason why. He doesn’t have a prototypical No. 1 receiver. Instead, he utilizes his elite athleticism and size to keep defenses off-balance.
Can the Patriots slow him down? It helps that they have Christian Gonzalez back, but in this game, they need their linebackers to step up. The team has had some inconsistency in that area, especially next to Robert Spillane, where Jack Gibbens looks like he could take Christian Elliss’ job.
Defensive line vs. James Cook
The Bills might not have a No. 1 receiver, but they have a Pro Bowl running back in James Cook. He enters this matchup with the second-most rushing yards (401) and the most rushing touchdowns (5) in the NFL. Cook is averaging 100.3 rushing yards per game to start this season. To stop the Bills, the Patriots also have to stop their run game.
Buffalo has the No. 1-ranked rushing offense in the NFL, averaging 163.5 yards per game. The Patriots have the No. 2-ranked rushing defense in the NFL, allowing 77.5 rushing yards per game. That performance has to continue if the Patriots want to upset the Bills in their own stadium.
Stefon Diggs returns to Buffalo
Stefon Diggs will play in Buffalo for the first time since the Bills traded him in 2024. The veteran receiver earned four straight Pro Bowls as a member of the Bills from 2020 to 2023. He also earned two All-Pro honors as he eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark every season there.
Diggs comes to Buffalo after having his best game of the season. Last week, he caught six of seven passes for 101 yards. He looked like a No. 1 receiver. That ability played a big part in the Patriots success against Carolina. It would go a long way if he did the same thing against his former team.
Patriots offensive line
The Patriots offensive line has done a good job of protecting Maye. Unlike previous seasons in New England, the Patriots look like they have a capable, above-average pass protection. The unit is going to have its hands full on Sunday night. The Bills are averaging 8.74% sacks per pass attempt. That ranks their defense ninth in the NFL.
The Bills have a talented, veteran-laden defensive line led by defensive end Joey Bosa and defensive tackle Ed Oliver. The Patriots will be getting back their starting left guard as Jared Wilson returned to practice for a full week. He missed last weekend’s game due to a knee and ankle injury.
Prediction: Bills 30, Patriots 27
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