Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles know how to win games.
Regardless of the situation or type of game, the Eagles find a way. That comes with experience, but also extreme confidence. That helps explain the discrepancy between almost every statistical category and Philly still being 4-0.
Now comes the 2-2 Denver Broncos and a team that could be undefeated if not for costly mistakes. FanDuel Sportsbook lists the Eagles as the -4.5-point home favorites. The total sits are over/under 43.5, with a slight lean towards the over at -115.
We go “behind enemy lines” to get a feel for the Eagles heading into Sunday’s game with Brandon Lee Gowton from Bleeding Green Nation to preview Sunday’s game. Here are my answers to Brandon’s five questions about the Broncos.
MHR: How are Eagles fans feeling through the first four games? Obviously, the hope is to defend as Super Bowl champions, has anything changed after the start of the season?
Brandon: More than one thing can be true.
Going 4-0 through a tough stretch (vs. DAL, at KC, vs. LAR, at TB) is a pretty good thing. The Eagles are now 20-1 in their last 21 games and 18-0 in their last 18 games started and finished by Jalen Hurts. When you zoom out, it’s hard to bet against this team.
When you zoom in, however, it’s clear that this team has some real issues. They’ve been outgained in every game this year. They only rank 12th in DVOA (three spots below the Broncos) and tied for 10th in point differential (five spots below the Broncos).
The biggest source of ire is the inconceivably inconsistent offense. It’s hard to fathom how Jalen Hurts can play arguably the best first half of his career against the Bucs … only to be unable to complete a single pass in the second half. Any hope that the Eagles offense turned the corner after an inept first half against the Rams in Week 3 was dashed following Week 4’s struggles.
So, it’s a weird mix of acknowledging that all this team does is win … while being frustrated that they’re underachieving relative to their talent level. It feels like these struggles will inevitably bite them in the ass if they don’t get their act together.
And there’s certainly reason to believe they can play much better. They appeared to be in a much worse spot after starting 2-2 last year.
MHR: Why is Philly 4-0 and seemingly the best team in the NFL? What is the reason for the discrepancy between just about every stat and the Eagles’ record?
Brandon: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
They simply just win.
Luck is obviously a factor. They’ve made some really big high-leverage plays. Jihaad Campbell’s red zone forced fumble in Week 1, Andrew Mukuba’s end zone interception in Week 2, Jordan Davis’ blocked game-winning field goal attempt, and Campbell’s end zone pick in Week 4. Part of that luck is deserved in that they have really good players who can make big plays. Some of it is just very fortunate timing.
While the offense has been frustrating on the whole, they have had some really good halves (see: 1H in Week 1, 2H in Week 3, 1H in Week 4). Jalen Hurts typically does a great job of not turning the ball over, although that avoidance has arguably gone to an extreme that should be balanced a bit better. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith have been bizarrely underutilized, but they’re capable of making plays when they actually get the opportunities to do so. Saquon Barkley hasn’t had a big game this year, but he doesn’t look bad to me as much as the offensive line hasn’t been up to its usual standard as the best blocking unit in the NFL.
The Eagles’ defense is not to be slept on. It’s not a perfect unit; CB2 is a real question mark for them. But they arguably have four All-Pro talents in Zack Baun, Quinyon Mitchell, Cooper DeJean, and Jalen Carter. Not to mention that rookies Campbell and Mukuba have shown serious promise early on. Oh, and the defensive coordinator is really good. You might’ve heard of him?
MHR: How do the Eagles get the win on Sunday? What will Philadelphia do to attack the Broncos on offense and defense?
Brandon: Probably something where they don’t even look that great and yet find a way to win again? That’s the safest bet.
I do think the turnover battle will be especially relevant this week. Again, Hurts has been really good at taking care of the football. Bo Nix, not so much. Those extra possessions in Philly’s favor could make a big difference.
It’s hard to know what to make of the Eagles’ offensive approach. You would think they’d really want to get A.J. Brown involved since 1) he’s really good and 2) he’s called attention to the fact that the Eagles aren’t utilizing him properly. With all due respect to Patrick Surtain II, who is awesome, there isn’t a defender in the NFL who should prevent the Eagles from throwing to Brown. But if the Eagles do so choose to stay away from him, then it’s on DeVonta Smith to take advantage of his matchups. And, really, for Jalen Hurts and the offensive design to get the ball to him.
On defense, watch out for Vic Fangio blitzing more often than he usually has in the past. Fangio seemingly isn’t feeling great about the Eagles rushing only with their front four, which is understandable given the personnel issues there (unproven players and injuries, such as Nolan Smith going on injured reserve). Fangio compared Nix to Baker Mayfield this week, and that could be telling when it comes to how the Eagles plan to rush Nix with integrity to prevent him from running, just like they did with Baker. But I think the Eagles’ DC will try to force Nix to be aggressive in an effort to generate some turnovers.
MHR: What is your best bet for Sunday’s game at FanDuel Sportsbook? And what do you think of the current spread?
Brandon: The Eagles actually didn’t even use the Tush Push last week; they instead ran multiple fakes off of the formation. And that worked out pretty well for them. But they’ll probably get back to it this weekend. In this vein, a Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown bet is not a bad one to make. He’s rushed for 21 touchdowns in his last 18 starts … and at least one TD in 14 out of those 18 games.
The line doesn’t seem to be showing much respect to the Broncos. Then again, Denver is coming off short rest, and they’re 1-7 in their last eight road games while the Eagles haven’t lost a home game since Week 17 of the 2023 season.
MHR: What are your expectations and predictions for Sunday’s game?
Brandon: Betting against the Eagles at this point feels silly. This isn’t to say that they can’t lose; they definitely can. But I’m going to feel like a fool if I pick them to lose and they simply just win again.
It’s hard to feel amazing about the Birds when the offense has been impossible to trust. But I’m not going to rule out that they can figure some things out on that front. And I do have trust in Fangio’s defense to bring a strong effort to the table.
That being said, I’ll predict a close Eagles win where they just barely fail to cover the 4.5-point spread.
Eagles 24, Broncos 20.