Chaos is the only constant in the NFL.
Here we go again, ladies and gentlemen. Week 4 gave us an 80-point tie, a strange Monday Night Football doubleheader, yet another shutout, and even a glimpse of an Aaron Rodgers resurgence.
Now we turn the page to Week 5, where the Falcons, Bears, Packers, and Steelers hit an early bye after avoiding losses and stirring plenty of questions. Meanwhile, the rest of the league gears up: The Ravens and Texans square off in an early-season, win-or-go-home clash, the Bills face a trap game on Sunday night against the Patriots, and the Chiefs get a true road test in Jacksonville on Monday.
But before the chaos unfolds, let’s dive into this week’s power rankings.
1) Buffalo Bills (4-0) (even)
The Saints gave the Bills a bit of a scare there, but the best teams find a way to win and this Buffalo team is no different. Josh Allen is still playing at an elite level (1st in EPA/dropback, one of only five quarterbacks with 7+ TDs and only one interception) and the defense has been remarkable through the first month. Buffalo is still the team to beat until further notice.
2) Philadelphia Eagles (4-0) (even)
A win is a win, and the Eagles continue to stack them on top of each other. Jalen Hurts is doing enough to keep this offense stable and the Philadelphia defense wreaked havoc on the Bucs on Sunday. This is the only undefeated team in the NFC, and they continue to find new ways to leave the field with a victory.
3) Detroit Lions (3-1) (even)
Outside of the first week against the Packers, the Detroit Lions are 1st in offensive success rate, 2nd in EPA/play, 2nd in EPA/dropback, and 3rd in EPA/rush. This Lions offense is moving on all cylinders, and the defense, especially Aidan Hutchinson, have been stellar.
4) Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) (+4)
Now, that’s more like it. The Chiefs under Andy Reid always feel like they’re a game away from going on a run, and I have to tell you, a four-touchdown game from Patrick Mahomes feels like a great way to get back on track.
5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) (+2)
Despite the loss, the Buccaneers proved, at least to me, that they will be a tough out this season if they make the playoffs. Baker Mayfield continues to ascend as the franchise guy in Tampa, and that defense is stingy, not allowing a single passing yard to Jalen Hurts and the Eagles’ offense in the second half.
6) Los Angeles Rams (3-1) (+4)
After a back-and-forth with one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now, pulling out the victory further ensures me that this is a team that should be at the top of the NFC conversation. Especially with Matthew Stafford throwing for 375 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions for only the third time ever in his career.
7) Green Bay Packers (2-1-1) (-1)
Green Bay was a literal second away from blowing a chance at a tie, but they pulled off the…not-loss at the end. Micah Parsons came to play, generating seven pressures on 29 pass rush snaps and Jordan Love logging his only 300-yard game with at least three touchdowns and no interceptions.
8) Indianapolis Colts (3-1) (+3)
I’m still not buying in fully, but there’s no denying how impressive this first month of the season has been for the Colts. Indianapolis’ 6.46 yards per play is the 12th-best start of any offense since the start of the 2020 season. Through four weeks, Daniel Jones is fifth in EPA/dropback, fourth in completion percentage, and third in passing yards, while Jonathan Taylor is the league leader in rushing yards.
9) Los Angeles Chargers (3-1) (-5)
Herbert and company laid an egg against the Giants, but this feels like more of an aberration than a sign of things to come. The Chargers’ defense is still one of the more dangerous in the league and I don’t expect too many games where Justin Herbert looks like that…even though losing Joe Alt in a game where he was pressured on 47.7% of his dropbacks is concerning.
10) Baltimore Ravens (1-3) (-5)
I’m not sure what’s going on here. Is it overthinking? Is it simply the end of the road for the Baltimore Ravens? It’s probably not that existential, but Lamar Jackson looked flustered as the Chiefs heated him up, and the road doesn’t get much easier with a Houston Texans defense that has Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter off the edge.
11) Seattle Seahawks (3-1) (+3)
I like Seattle. Sam Darnold looks really comfortable, the defense is coming together like it needs to, and Sunday’s test against the Buccaneers will be a perfect litmus test to see how good this team is/can be.
12) Denver Broncos (2-2) (+1)
The Broncos put Bengals backup Jake Browning in the Walls of Jericho, and they did it while blitzing on only around 14% of his dropbacks. Gloving up Ja’Marr Chase with Patrick Surtain, this Broncos defense did exactly what they needed to do against an inferior Bengals offense: Suffocate them into submission.
13) Washington Commanders (2-2) (-4)
Washington’s offense actually did enough to win that game on Sunday against the Falcons. It was the defense that let them down at the end of the day. Even the turnover they got was Penix throwing a heat check sail route to Drake London that, if Penix puts a bit more air on it, still hits London as he’s open on the sideline. Jayden Daniels should be back this week and it’s going to be tough to find a rhythm against a Los Angeles Chargers team that is sure to be pissed off after this last loss.
14) Houston Texans (1-3) (+1)
Listen, this Texans defense is the real deal. Through the first three games, they haven’t allowed a team to score over 20 points; their offense is just letting them down. As they head to Baltimore, this feels like a must-win, get-right game for the offense, or it will be difficult to pull themselves out of a 1-4 hole. Of the 289 teams that have started 1-4 in the Super Bowl era, only 17 (5.88%) have made the playoffs.
15) Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1) (+1)
Brian Flores’ aggressive defensive approach allowed us to see the best version of Aaron Rodgers and this Pittsburgh Steelers offense. The running game and its 58.3% success rate kept Pittsburgh ahead of the sticks and allowed the Steelers to keep attacking in the quick passing game.
16) Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1) (+1)
Trevor Lawrence and this Jaguars offense is doing just enough to keep this offense on track and allowing this tenacious defense, which is 2nd in EPA/play allowed and 1st in turnovers forced, to win the football games.
17) San Francisco 49ers (3-1) (-5)
No Brock Purdy for a little while will be a bit of an adjustment, but Mac Jones should keep the ship steady until Purdy and the rest of this oft-injured offense can come back ready to make a run at the wide-open NFC West.
18) Dallas Cowboys (1-2-1) (even)
Dak Prescott is playing some of the best ball in his career, and it’s being squandered by a lifeless defensive performance so far. The Cowboys are dead last in the NFL in EPA/play allowed and yards allowed. It has to be exhausting watching Prescott put up over 1,100 yards in the first four games and only have one win to show for it.
19) Atlanta Falcons (2-2) (+6)
This rollercoaster has to stabilize at some point. Hopefully, they find new ways to utilize the OPOY candidate Bijan Robinson, the twin towers of Drake London and Kyle Pitts, and the crazy arm of Penix to continue this offensive onslaught after the bye. At least enough to force teams to get into a shootout with this passing defense that is allowing only 135 passing yards a game (2nd-least in the league).
20) Minnesota Vikings (2-2) (-3)
The Carson Wentz experience has been as volatile as one would think, especially with the run game not being what it needs to with Aaron Jones out for the foreseeable future.
21) Chicago Bears (2-2) (+1)
That wasn’t a great performance, but a win is a win in the NFL. Caleb Williams didn’t necessarily play well, and the running game couldn’t get going. But the defense found a way to force three interceptions, and that was enough.
22) Arizona Cardinals (2-2) (-1)
It’s clear this Arizona offense is still trying to get a feel for what works and what doesn’t, but that is going to come with some rough losses, like this one against NFC West rival Seattle Seahawks. Arizona will be okay, but it’s going to take some time
23) New England Patriots (2-2) (+4)
Drake Maye is 4th in EPA/dropback and 1st in completion percentage. New England thoroughly dismantled this Carolina team and has one of their biggest games on Sunday night against the Buffalo Bills.
24) Las Vegas Raiders (1-3) (even)
The Raiders can’t give the ball up like they did against the Bears. Ashton Jeanty had his best performance to date, and it was met with a three-interception performance from Geno Smith. And it doesn’t get easier as they head to Indianapolis to play one of the hottest teams in the NFL.
25) Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) (-5)
I’m not ready to say it’s over yet, but the Jake Browning experience is not looking good. The worst part is that things aren’t getting much easier as the Lions are coming into town this week. Nik Bonitto made life hell for Browning, so there’s no telling what Aidan Hutchinson may do.
26) Carolina Panthers (1-3) (-3)
There’s not much to say. This offense looks like last season, podcast equipment is being thrown to the side, the vibes are getting worse in Charlotte, and if they lose to the woeful Dolphins on Sunday, who knows how low it may get.
27) New York Giants (1-3) (+3)
Welcome to the NFL, Jaxson Dart! Finding a way to win against a defense like the Chargers is huge. Also, this defensive front is going to be an issue. They pressured Justin Herbert on 47.7% of his dropbacks.
28) Miami Dolphins (1-3) (+1)
That first win was necessary. Devon Achane looked good and Tua Tagovailoa did enough to propel the offense into the win column. Now, headed to Carolina, there is a chance to go on a little run here.
29) New York Jets (0-4) (-3)
No matter how you play, losing three fumbles will get you beaten more times than not. Losing three fumbles and not being able to take the ball away yourself will always get you beaten. Welcoming in the Cowboys and their red-hot offense will make for an interesting battle, as the Jets will probably look to keep the ball on the ground and out of the hands of Prescott.
30) Cleveland Browns (1-3) (-2)
Cleveland ran out of reasons to keep Joe Flacco in, and the Dillon Gabriel era has commenced in Cleveland. Heading to London to see Brian Flores doesn’t seem like the best strategy for a young QB, though.
31) New Orleans Saints (0-4) (+1)
New Orleans looked like a solid team against the Buffalo Bills for the majority of that game. But the lack of talent was apparent once they got into the later stages of the game, and the Saints are 0-4 for the first time since 2012.
32) Tennessee Titans (0-4) (-1)
The Houston Texans had the Titans in a genjutsu for this entire game, and Cam Ward became only the third quarterback since 2018 to complete 10 or fewer passes on 25 or more attempts (Anthony Richardson, Week 8, 2024; Tua Tagovailoa, Week 14, 2022).