The Philadelphia Eagles can improve to 5-0 this weekend when they host the Denver Broncos in a Week 5 matchup.
Over their last two games, the Eagles have played brilliantly for one half and terribly for the other one. If they can put together four complete quarters this week, then they have an excellent chance not only to win the game, but also to cover the spread. But the Broncos won’t be an easy opponent.
Denver may be just 2-2, but both losses came on the road against tough opponents in the Colts and Chargers. The Broncos were a 2024 playoff team and look like a strong contender to return to the postseason this year despite a few early losses.
They would certainly improve their chances with a signature win over the reigning champs. Here is my breakdown of the matchup and my Broncos vs. Eagles best bets.
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Broncos vs. Eagles predictions and best bets
Broncos +4.5 (-118 at FanDuel)
Under 43.5 points (-105 at FanDuel)
Saquon Barkley under 80.5 rushing yards (-111 at DraftKings)
NOTE: Odds are based on the best value our experts find while writing; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.
Broncos +4.5
Best odds:-118 at FanDuel
This game will go one of two ways.
Either the Eagles are going to figure things out offensively and win this game handily, or they are going to be the same inconsistent, conservative offense that allows the Broncos to keep the game close.
In the second scenario, they probably still win the game, just like they have done the last four weeks. But in a closer game like that, there is at least a chance the Broncos could pull off the upset.
I’m not quite bold enough to pick against the undefeated Eagles on the moneyline, but I’m going to split the difference and take the Broncos with the points. I need to see the Eagles play a complete game offensively before I’m willing to lay this many points against a solid team like Denver.
Under 43.5 points
Best odds:-105 at FanDuel
I feel even better about picking the Under. Both defenses in this matchup are among the best in the league, and both offenses have had their struggles for stretches this season.
The Broncos have been running the ball well, averaging over five yards per carry and ranking fifth in the league in rushing (143.3 yards per game). The Eagles are allowing 4.8 yards per rush, seventh-most in the league.
If Denver can control the ball with their ground attack, that’s going to limit possessions and keep scoring down. The Eagles are also once again one of the most run-heavy teams in the league, even if they have not been as successful running the ball so far this season.
With two run-heavy attacks and two strong defenses, betting the Under is a very solid play.
Saquon Barkley under 80.5 rushing yards
Best odds:-111 at DraftKings
Speaking of the Eagles’ inefficient rushing attack, Saquon Barkley is averaging just 59.3 yards per game on 3.1 yards per carry.
It’s not all his fault, as the Eagles’ normally dominant offensive line is dealing with multiple injuries that are contributing to them being much less effective than usual. The Eagles have been top 10 in run block win rate in each of the last four seasons, but they are just 22nd so far this season.
Barkley should eventually break through and look more like the 2,000-yard rusher he was last season, but given his early-season struggles and the tough matchup, I’m taking him to be under 80.5 rushing yards this week.
Broncos vs. Eagles moneyline odds analysis
I am taking the Broncos with the points, but it was tempting to pick them to win this game outright. Here is the case for either team winning this game.
How the Eagles can win as the favorite
Best odds:-200 at Fanatics
The Eagles’ defense has been picking up the slack for its lackluster offense this season, and it has done that against four excellent quarterbacks in Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford, and Baker Mayfield.
Nothing against Broncos second-year signal caller Bo Nix, but he’s not in the same caliber as those four players yet. With the easiest matchup it’s had so far this season, the Eagles’ defense should carry the day once again.
If the offense manages to figure things out, this one might not be close.
How the Broncos can win as the underdog
Best odds:+176 at FanDuel
The Broncos can run on the Eagles. J.K. Dobbins is fourth in the league in rushing, and rookie RJ Harvey just had his best game of the season with 98 scrimmage yards and his first career touchdown.
The ground game will be key for Denver in this game, helping them win the time of possession battle and keep the Eagles’ offense off the field. That’s a good recipe for beating a team like the Eagles, especially on the road on a short week.
If the combination of a solid rushing attack and an excellent defense can keep the game close into the fourth quarter, then anything can happen.
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