The Kansas City Chiefs travel to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars on Monday Night Football in Week 5. Jacksonville is coming off an impressive victory over the 49ers on the road. With that, the Jaguars return home with an exciting 3-1 start through their first four games. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have won two in a row to get back to .500 at 2-2.
This game could sneakily have some early playoff implications. Kansas City is in the thick of deep competition within the AFC West. That statement is not necessarily a surprise. However, not many people had the Jaguars starting off this well. That is especially true given that Jacksonville is in yet another opening season of a new regime during its young history.
With the Jaguars being a 3-1 team entering Monday, how legitimate have their performances been so far this season? Let's look at some key takeaways from Jacksonville's first four weeks.
Jags are a turnover machine
Entering their Week 5 matchup with the Chiefs, the Jaguars' defense leads the NFL in both turnover differential (+9) and takeaways (13). Amazingly, Jacksonville already has more takeaways this season than it did all of last year (9). And it has only been four games. Seeing that sudden change resulted in having to do a double or triple take just to make sure that wild stat was correct. Overall, the Jaguars have forced at least three takeaways in each individual game so far this year.
Opposing offenses have certainly gifted Jacksonville with simple turnovers (just look at this Brock Purdy interception from last week), but at the same time, the Jaguars have come out strong as an aggressive and attacking defense. That part is certainly legitimate when watching Jacksonville operate early this season.
The linebacker duo of Devin Lloyd and Foyesade Oluokun could easily be the X-factor in this matchup against Kansas City. Both players have the size to pair with solid range. They are each generally sure tacklers. Plus, those two will look to attack the football just as much as bring the man to the ground. Finally, pass rusher Josh Hines-Allen has wreaked havoc plenty of times early this season. He ranked fifth in the NFL in pressure rate over the last three seasons entering this year.
Jags' surging ground game
The ground game is arguably the most legitimate part of the Jaguars' offense to this point. Travis Etienne has ridden a roller coaster during the early portion of his career. Results have been there at times, yet crucial mistakes have haunted him as well.
Etienne already has 394 rushing yards in four games this season. To put that into perspective versus last year, he finished with only 558 rushing yards in 15 games in 2024. Etienne has already generated roughly 70 percent of his rushing production from last year in one-third of his appearances.
With Etienne leading the way, Jacksonville ranks fourth in rushing yards and sixth in yards per rush attempt. The Jaguars have been efficient and effective on the ground to help dictate terms and the pace of the game. Generally, that has kept them out of dire downs and distances.
But when they have been on third down, the Jaguars have struggled to convert. Jacksonville has a third-down conversion percentage of just 35.19 percent so far this season. That ranks 26th in the NFL, according to Team Rankings.
Time to buy into Trevor Lawrence?
The head coaching change to Liam Coen was expected to yield massive dividends for Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence. It has been a cleaner operation for the Jaguars offensively, though it remains to be seen if we should fully buy into Lawrence.
That goes into buying in from an upper-echelon QB perspective. Is he able to consistently perform like a top-ten passer each week? Or will Lawrence still have some low points that make you question his overall ceiling?
All in all, the running game has been the more impressive focal point for Jacksonville's offense, as mentioned above. Let's focus on where Lawrence has shined early on, however.
Lawrence is standing out with decisiveness and ball placement. Namely, he is giving his guys routine chances to make a play one-on-one down the field. Attacking man coverage has been a comfort spot for him. That is a major idea to keep in mind against a defense like the Chiefs, given how K.C. plays. Plus, Lawrence is showing he can make correct, urgent decisions while remaining fundamentally sound when carrying out the play-action pass game.
In the end, he still has some sprays within his throws that cannot be explained. His misses can be high, low, or wide. His footwork has been a crucial sticking point during his ups and downs. With Steve Spagnuolo on the other side, the footwork of Lawrence may be tested heavily if Kansas City brings loads of pressure.