The stage is set for a Monday Night Football clash in the AFC between the Kansas City Chiefs and Jacksonville Jaguars. While the Jaguars (3-1) have a better record and are at home, the 2-2 Chiefs are widely expected to pull off another win on primetime.
Much of the focus going into the game centers on Patrick Mahomes and how Kansas City’s offense has been performing this year. However, it’s Jacksonville’s defense and run game that could prove to be the real difference-makers tonight. Let’s dive into our Chiefs vs. Jaguars predictions for Monday Night Football.
Travis Etienne Delivers his Third 100-Yard Game
Monday Night Football, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs
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It’s amazing what a coaching change can do for a talented player. It seemed like former first-round pick Travis Etienne might be on his way out of Jacksonville this offseason, and there were even reports in training camp that he could be traded. Fast forward to Week 5, and he’s been one of the most productive running backs in the NFL, with 394 rushing yards and a 6.1 yards-per-carry average through four games.
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Etienne’s success will continue on Monday Night Football. He’s facing a Chiefs defense that has allowed 139.3 rushing yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry to its last three opponents. Kansas City has struggled against the run since Week 11 of last season, and there are certainly no signs of a turnaround right now. With how effectively Liam Coen has drawn up this rushing attack, Etienne’s success looks poised to continue tonight.
Trevor Lawrence, Patrick Mahomes Both Throw Interceptions
Monday Night Football, Kansas City Chiefs, Jacksonville Jaguars
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While the Jaguars’ defense doesn’t have a ton of big names, it has been remarkably effective this season. Opponents are averaging just 18 points per game (3rd in the NFL) with a 69.0 average QB rating (1st) because this group has a nose for the football. Coming into Monday night, Jacksonville has 9 interceptions on the season, and they’ll make it 10 by picking off Patrick Mahomes. Of note, 54 percent of his interceptions have come when he’s been pressured since 2023.
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The Chiefs’ defense is also adept at generating takeaways, especially lately. Kansas City has forced a 4.6 percent interception rate in the last two games with 5 sacks in that span. Steve Spagnuolo will dial up the blitz on Monday Night Football, with some of that pressure forcing an errant pass by Trevor Lawrence that gets picked off.
Brian Thomas Jr. Held Under 50 Yards for Third Time this Year
Monday Night Football, Jacksonvilel Jaguars, San Francisco 49ers
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It’s been a sophomore season to forget for the Jaguars’ No. 1 receiver Brian Thomas Jr. Reports out of training camp already raised some concerns, with drops and effort seemingly an issue on the practice field. That’s carried over into the regular season. Thomas has just 164 receiving yards on 12 receptions, averaging 41 receiving yards per game after averaging 75.4 per game as a rookie. One big issue is that he has the highest drop rate (15.6 percent) among starting wide receivers, and he ranks 60th in yards per route run (1.32). Given how effective Chiefs cornerbacks Trent McDuffie (56.8 QB rating allowed), Jaylen Watson (67.8), and Nohl Williams (39.6) have been in zone coverage this season, Thomas Jr.’s woes will likely continue tonight.
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Monday Night Football, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs
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This is an even riskier prediction since Jacksonville will be without edge rusher Travon Walker on Monday Night Football. However, what the Jaguars have demonstrated through the first month of the season is both the ability to run the football effectively and create extra possessions or shorter fields for their offense. Those are two keys to beating a Kansas City team that is still short-handed offensively and doesn’t have a rushing game it can depend on. Mahomes won’t be flawless tonight, but he will play well enough to put the Chiefs in position to win. However, losing the turnover battle to Jacksonville and a missed field goal by Harrison Butker prove costly as the Jaguars go on to win.
Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars 24, Kansas City Chiefs 21
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Matt Johnson is Senior Editor of NFL and College Football for Sportsnaut. His work, including weekly NFL and college ... More about Matt Johnson