The Green Bay Packers’ defense will have a favorable matchup once a Joe Burrow-less Cincinnati Bengals take the field in Week 6 at Lambeau Field. Prior to Monday Night Football, their offense ranks as a bottom-five unit in EPA per play, total EPA, and EPA per pass. Moreover, they rank 30th in success rate, 25th in EPA per rush, 27th in passing yards, 32nd in rushing yards, and 25th in sack rate.
Typically, against a backup quarterback, teams like to stack the box and focus on the run. But Cincinnati’s rushing game isn’t much of a threat. After four games, they’ve only totaled 200 yards. For context, 24 NFL players had more than that on their own.
Stopping the run is usually a priority in any game plan designed during a regular week. That said, Green Bay also needs a way to neutralize Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and the best way to do that might be running a lot of Cover 3.
Last year, the Packers played zone coverage on 70.8% of their snaps — the highest rate in the NFL, finishing 10th in EPA per play. This year, according to Sumer Sports, Green Bay has been running Cover 3 on 55% of its defensive snaps.
The Packers ran a lot of Cover 3 early against the Cleveland Browns, with Xavier McKinney and Evan Williams rotating near the box while the other played the post. It’s a smart way to add an extra body in the box while strengthening second-level coverage, keeping their eyes on Jake Browning, who has struggled badly against zone this year, and limiting any potential scramble opportunities.
Among 37 quarterbacks with at least 25 plays against zone coverage, Browning ranks dead last in EPA per play, total EPA, and passing EPA. He’s also 35th in success rate, 30th in completion percentage, 28th in passing yards, and 29th in yards per attempt. On top of that, he’s thrown the most interceptions against zone.
Browning has also been a bottom-10 quarterback against man coverage in nearly every advanced metric. Still, it will be key for the Packers not to leave Chase and Higgins on an island, especially considering Green Bay’s cornerbacks are coming off a rough performance against a Cowboys offense that didn’t feature CeeDee Lamb.
Through Browning’s first two starts in 2025, he and Chase haven’t exactly found a rhythm. Chase totaled 50 yards on five receptions against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 3 and just 23 yards on five catches versus the Denver Broncos, both of which ranked among the league’s top-12 defenses in passing DVOA.
In those same two games, Cincinnati’s running game has been dreadful. The Bengals only averaged 2.8 yards per carry, 1.88 yards after contact, and posted a negative 46.4 rushing EPA, all of which rank last in the NFL.
Considering that the Bengals’ offense has been dysfunctional across the board — ranked 32nd in pass-blocking efficiency — Jeff Hafley should have plenty of options to craft a varied game plan that Cincinnati likely won’t be able to counter. Expect Green Bay to rely heavily on Cover 3 on Sunday, integrating concepts from Hafley’s time with the San Francisco 49ers.
Hafley’s defense combines classic Cover 3 concepts with Tampa 2 ideas, incorporating inverted coverages to make the scheme more versatile and keep offenses guessing. He can also alternate between conventional four-man pass rushes and creative, disguised blitzes to take advantage of Cincinnati’s struggling offensive line and disrupt Jake Browning’s rhythm.