The Carolina Panthers have lost by a lopsided margin and won by a lopsided margin. They’ve staged a comeback that resulted in a loss and a comeback that resulted in a win. They’ve turned the ball over; they’ve played clean.
“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times ...”
It all begs the query: What should we make of their 2-3 start?
To get at that ultimate question, we brought back another reader mailbag. Here are four burning questions the Panthers’ fan base wants answers to ahead of Carolina’s home game against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday.
Rico Dowdle, Chuba Hubbard and the Panthers’ ‘good problem’
Via email, David asks: After a career day from Rico Dowdle, how can the Panthers maintain a healthy and effective snap count between Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard that could ensure production from both players?
Zietlow: This isn’t the Panthers’ million-dollar question. That’s reserved for Bryce Young. But for next week, it’s probably the one that deserves the most attention.
A recap: Rico Dowdle got his first start of the season last week against the Dolphins. Such an opportunity came about because Chuba Hubbard was rendered out with a calf injury. And Dowdle soared. 23 carries. 206 rushing yards. One touchdown. With receiving yards included, he notched 234 total yards. That’s the third-best single-game performance among running backs in Panthers franchise history, per the team. Only Christian McCaffrey has notched better outputs. McCaffrey did so twice: once in 2018 (237 yards), and once in 2019 (237 yards).
Head coach Dave Canales told reporters that they are evaluating Hubbard’s injury every day. When asked if such a big day from Dowdle might force the Panthers to rethink how they’re using their two gifted running backs — whether they ought to commit to one, essentially — Canales was resolute: “What I take from it is we have two good backs. And so we’ll have to figure that out. That’s a good problem to have. But it’s something we have to work through.”
And that’s all fair and fine. But my opinion differs. I think, to David’s question, it’s going to be very hard to play both running backs in a way in which both can be productive.
Why? In Hubbard’s breakout year last year, he was 11th in total carries, and that’s with him missing the final two games. Going into Week 5 against the Dolphins — in a relative down year thus far — he was 21st with 53 carries (and that took another dip this past week).
Hubbard seems to get better as games go on. His plus-100-yard contests last year came against the Bengals, Raiders, Giants and Cardinals and all required at least 18 carries. His longest runs of the season were a pair of 38 yard rushes ... but he regularly emerged with great stat-lines even if his longest rush was 13-16 yards.
Dowdle is similar in this regard. In Dowdle’s breakout game last week, he got a bulk of the carries. And he got better as the game went on: He notched 133 rushing yards in the second half; he seemed to get better with every carry, every hit.
Perhaps all running backs need rhythms to succeed. Miles Sanders certainly did in the Panthers’ massive season-finale win over the Falcons. But these two especially do. I think committing to one is better than trying to uplift both at the same time. After all, the only time the Panthers were forced to commit to one — by vice of injury — look what happened.
Another win, another Bryce Young question
On X, Mike asks: Bryce finally pulled off a comeback win when games still matter (early in the season). I think the last thing he needs to do to win over the franchise is win a shootout game. (Week 18 last year doesn’t count, in my opinion, since the season was lost.) How does the team score on a reliable basis other than Bryce stops making blooper reel mistakes?
Zietlow: It’s true that Young has three fumbles and four interceptions through his first five games, and that this has undoubtedly impacted the team’s 2-3 start. It’s also true that he needs to be more than turnover-free for the Panthers to win. I wrote about this phenomenon in Foxborough: He still needs to dazzle, still needs to take chances, still needs to loft that ball to a til-then struggling Xavier Legette in the end zone, still needs to shake a few pass rushers loose before throwing-open Tetairoa McMillan on a critical fourth down.
So how do we strike that balance for Young?
One way to do so is establishing the run, which the Panthers did despite starting the game down 17-0. And wow, the offensive line delivered: springing Dowdle free by pull blocks, by getting center Cade Mays into the second level and more. Another way is to get the ball out of his hands quickly, relying heavily on a tight end group that has played well the past two weeks. He only had 2.49 seconds to throw ball against Miami, according to advanced stats from Pro Football Focus. And that was enough for Young to still be effective late in the game.
My final way — that simply doesn’t get the attention I think it should — is to get Young running. He is a fast, shifty, wildly underrated runner who seems to get more and more confidence with every step he takes out of the pocket.
This doesn’t fully capture the essence of the Bryce Young question. I’d need a book for that. But it does get at the question of how this offense can score points — particularly against a Dallas team that has an explosive offense and a statistically not-great defense: Get him outside the pocket, establish a rhythm for the offensive line and running backs — and see what this offense can be.
Christian Rozeboom’s best day yet
Via email, Jeff asks: Rozeboom looked like a different guy this week. Is it because he DID NOT have the green dot against Miami?
Zietlow: What a game for Christian Rozeboom. The free-agent acquisition linebacker led the team with nine tackles including one for loss. But it wasn’t exclusively his production that stood out. His run-fits were sound — a big reason why the Panthers only gave up 19 rushing yards to the Dolphins on Sunday. He played fast. His coverage was still shaky at times, but there was notable improvement there, too.
So naturally, a question comes to the fore: How did this happen? Head coach Dave Canales told reporters Monday that he had a theory.
“It was a really interesting dynamic where Trevin felt really comfortable making the calls, and that was something that we asked him to do to take on that challenge, and Christian just looked like he was playing a little freer out there,” noted Canales. “Running sideline to sideline making hits; all the things that we saw bringing him in here, and so flipping the roles, I thought really helped both guys settle into a comfort zone in a role.”
Rozeboom didn’t necessarily say whether or not his good day was attributed to the fact that he wasn’t calling the plays anymore — wearing the “green dot” so to speak. But he did admit to playing “freer.” He considered it being a product of getting comfortable in Ejrio Evero’s system, and also a product of having belief in the team’s offense to capitalize when the defense plays well.
Both Canales and Rozeboom himself have better understandings than me in regards to why the inside linebacker played well. And there should be plenty of context to all this: The Dolphins’ offensive line has struggled a bunch of this year; it’s a notable reason for their 1-4 start. Still, I think there’s merit to the idea that with Wallace calling the plays — and with Wallace inherently playing fast, unafraid to make mistakes as his instincts within the system get sharpened — Rozeboom could instead focus on his own assignment, his own game, and play the best he has yet.
Have the Panthers’ start to the season aged ... well?
Via email, Hannah asks: Starting off the season, I thought the Jags and Patriots would be easy wins (based on how they did last year + how we finished the year). Losing to them felt pretty bad, but after they beat the Bills AND Chiefs over the weekend, they appear to be much better teams than I originally thought. With that in mind, do our losses to them seem less “bad”?
Zietlow: I love this question. That’s because I truly hadn’t thought of such context before Hannah brought it up. I’ll be brief.
The Panthers have lost to the Patriots, Jaguars and Cardinals. That means the collective record of the teams they’ve lost to is 9-6. Not bad. And when you consider the wins those teams have accrued, as Hannah points out, there’s plenty of hope to extract.
Then again, in this particular arena, it’s not exactly hard to bend the data to your will all day. The Cowboys, for instance, are 2-2-1 but have the offensive explosiveness and the talent of a playoff team, in this writer’s opinion. They barely lost to the Eagles and took the Packers all the way to a draw. The Bills — a codified Super Bowl contender — are 4-1, but the collective record of the teams they defeated is 3-17.
It’s a fun question, no doubt. And there’s logic in thinking the Panthers might not be “as bad” as their initial record suggests — especially considering everyone, including me, thought starting well was the only way to a winning season. But in the NFL, you’re what your record says you are. And that alone. It’s egalitarian. Comforting. Annoying. All the things.