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The report below identifies fantasy-friendly and unfriendly NFL defenses.
Highlighted statistical variables include success rate allowed, expected points added (EPA) allowed per play, explosive plays allowed, offensive plays allowed per game, offensive pass play rate faced, quarterback pressure rate and blitz rate.
Success rate allowed and EPA per play allowed
Success rate allowed and EPA allowed per play among NFL teams:
The Green Bay Packers rank sixth or better among NFL defenses in quarterback pressure rate and success rate allowed. Their thinned-out defensive tackle group offers the Cincinnati Bengals a path to moderate efficiency, though PFF’s scores and schedule lists the Packers as 14.0-point home favorites. This point spread will likely shift following Cincinnati’s trade for former Cleveland Browns quarterback Joe Flacco, whose 61.1 PFF passing grade far surpasses Cincinnati’s Weeks 3-5 starting quarterback Jake Browning’s 50.1 PFF passing grade. Flacco’s arrival theoretically stabilizes fantasy projections for the Bengals’ featured skill position players.
Among NFL offenses, Green Bay’s EPA per play, play-action pass play percentage, shifts and motion percentage and offensive play volume average rank 13th or better. Cincinnati’s pass defense has allowed the fourth-most explosive pass plays despite facing the seventh-lowest pass play percentage.
The Washington Commanders achieve top 10 spots among NFL offenses in success rate and EPA per play by featuring a fast-paced, run-oriented attack while leading the league in no-huddle rate by 34.1%.
The Chicago Bears rank in the top four among NFL offenses in neutral game pass play percentage and play-action pass play percentage. They rank 15th in no-huddle rate and 17th in offensive play volume.
These figures should remain constant in Week 6, given each team’s defensive weaknesses. Both the Bears and Commanders rank outside the top 20 among NFL defenses in EPA allowed per play and have allowed above-average explosive run play sums.
The Bears are dead last in success rate allowed, and the Commanders tie for having allowed the second-most explosive pass plays.
Chicago fails to pressure the quarterback effectively. Although Washington does, the defense fails to get off the field reliably, allowing the 10th-most offensive plays per game.
Explosive run plays allowed and explosive pass plays allowed
Explosive run plays and explosive pass plays allowed among NFL teams:
The Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs game boasts Week 6’s highest over/under (51.5 points), signalling a fantasy-friendly game environment.
Both offenses rely on above-average play volume while ranking in the top eight among NFL offenses in success rate and EPA per play. The Chiefs attack neutral game scripts via the pass and rank 10th in play-action pass play percentage. The Lions opt for a run-heavy approach and employ the NFL’s premier play-action pass play percentage and shifts and motion percentage blend.
Multiple factors suggest each team’s preferred offensive tactics will remain constant in Week 6. The Chiefs rank 20th or worse among NFL defenses in EPA allowed per play and success rate allowed, while the Lions rank fifth in both. Detroit is vulnerable via the pass, though, tying for the second-most explosive pass plays allowed while surrendering the sixth-most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers (800).
Both defenses have allowed above-average explosive run plays.
Both pass-rush units rank top 12, with the Chiefs sitting in the NFL’s top spot. The Lions will likely attempt to negate the Chiefs’ defensive strength by relying on their preferred run-heavy successes.
The Buffalo Bills and Atlanta Falcons game should yield productive rushing results from both squads. The two defenses defend the pass well and are vulnerable on the ground, with the Bills tying for the most explosive run plays allowed among NFL defenses. Both units rank top two in offensive plays allowed per game while generating top-10 quarterback pressure rates.
Buffalo and Atlanta employ run-heavy approaches in neutral game scripts and rank top 12 among NFL offenses in success rate, consistently picking up first downs, aided by top 10 shifts and motion percentages and offensive play volume.
The Bills notably rank third in both success rate and EPA per play, and 11th in play-action pass play percentage. The Falcons rank ninth in no-huddle rate.
Offensive plays per game allowed and opponent pass play rate
Offensive plays allowed per game and the opponent’s pass play percentage against among NFL teams:
The pass-heavy Denver Broncos take on the run-heavy New York Jets, though teams typically employ an inverted pass-run approach when facing each other’s defense. The Jets’ run-heavy attack yields a top-10 success rate, while the Broncos produce above-average results in EPA per play.
The Broncos and Jets’ offenses dichotomously feature play action and shifts and motion, respectively, though the Broncos (11.4%) and Jets (10.8%) both rank in the top 12 among NFL offenses in run-pass option (RPO) percentage.
The Jets' explosive pass plays allowed sum should meaningfully grow. The Broncos’ may not, though their 231 receiving yards allowed to running backs and 10.7 yards allowed per tight end reception are among the top-10 highest qualifying NFL defense sums. Denver fields the second-best pass-rush unit among NFL defenses. The Jets field the second-worst.
Jets rookie tight end Mason Taylor ranks and/or ties for first among NFL tight ends in targets (17), receptions (14) and receiving yards (132). Among 15 NFL tight ends with at least 10 targets during that span, Taylor’s 78.5 PFF receiving grade ranks third.
The game detailed above is a candidate to push for the league lead in combined offensive plays per game.
Opponents employ a high-volume, run-heavy approach against the New Orleans Saints, which bodes positively for the New England Patriots’ two remaining, healthy running backs. The Patriots’ 69.2 PFF pass-blocking grade ranks fifth among NFL offenses. The Saints’ pass rush ranks in the bottom three among NFL defenses, which should facilitate passing game efficiency for the Patriots, albeit on likely limited dropbacks.
The Saints take on a Patriots pass defense that ranks below-average in quarterback pressure rate and dead last in explosive pass plays allowed. New Orleans’ offense should produce multiple explosive pass plays due to the advantageous matchup and their top three offensive plays per game and no-huddle percentage.
Both the Patriots (375) and Saints (283) have surrendered top-10 receiving yard sums to opposing tight ends.
Quarterback pressure rate and pass blitz rate
Quarterback pressure rate and pass blitz rate among NFL teams:
The Indianapolis Colts defense rank below-average among NFL defenses in success rate allowed, explosive pass plays allowed and quarterback pressure rate, while yielding a top-five receiving yards sum (809) to opposing wide receivers. The news bodes positively for an Arizona Cardinals passing attack that could be led by a lame starting quarterback or a statuesque backup in Week 6.
Arizona surrendered four major season-best datapoints to Tennessee in Week 5. Their ineffectual pass rush allows opponents to churn out top-three offensive play sums. They tie for the seventh-most explosive pass plays allowed; a sum that should only grow against a Colts passing offense averaging the third-most EPA per pass play (0.278).
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