Don’t let the headline fool you: The Phoenix Suns are projected to finish as the third-worst team in the Western Conference.
But an analytics-based prediction from ESPN’s Kevin Pelton sees the Suns eclipsing the ESPN Bet over/under of 31.5 wins for the 2025-26 season.
Pelton’s model projects 34.7 wins.
Why they project to be better than their total: I get the logic that Phoenix won 36 games last season then subtracted Kevin Durant. However, the Suns were probably due for some degree of bounce-back after underperforming their projections a season ago, and Durant’s value at this stage of his career is likely overstated. It’s also worth remembering that Phoenix will have no incentive to accumulate losses late in the season because the team’s draft pick has been swapped to the point of irrelevance.
In other words, the bar is set pretty low — where overachieving might be pretty easy.
Pelton has the Suns ranked 13th out of 15 teams in the Western Conference, finishing ahead of win total predictions for the New Orleans Pelicans (32.6 wins) and Utah Jazz (20.2 wins).
Phoenix’s 34.7-win projection is chasing the Portland Trail Blazers (35.8), San Antonio Spurs (40.1) and Sacramento Kings (43.5).
The Suns are one preseason game in, but there is already a slight recalibration about how competitive their team might be despite being stuck in a heavyweight conference without much offensive punch alongside Devin Booker. Former NBA guard Patrick Beverley said on his podcast this week that “the Suns can be super competitive.”
“I think they can get in a situation at the end of the year — if Suns win the last three out of five, they can make the play-in,” Beverley said. “I think they’re a team that can do that.
“Over a seven-game series, are they the best team I would put my money on? Probably not. But if you was to bet on the Suns in a play-in game, I would be on the Suns.”
How did Kevin Pelton project the Suns to finish in 2024-25?
Pelton last season had Phoenix tabbed for 45.4 wins, good for the sixth-best record in the NBA.
They fell well short of that by nine games to finish 36-46 and 11th in the conference.
The basics of Pelton’s 2025-26 NBA win projection model
Pelton builds his model by using his SCHOENE stats-based projections for players and then a luck-adjusted regularized adjusted plus-minus (RAPM).
He puts that in a team context by using injury statistics for the players over the past three seasons, then maps that information out by guessing on playing time distributions for the upcoming season.
Pelton’s model spits out a win total based on “average health.”
Where are we projecting the Suns in preseason power rankings for 2025-26?
Suns reporter Kellan Olson has Phoenix as the 14th team in the Western Conference, ahead of the Jazz and right behind the Pelicans.
When simply taking a tally of the talent on the roster, it’s threatening for 40 wins. But just about none of it comes together.
The way in which this Phoenix team exceeds expectations is by getting the absolute most out of Devin Booker, and that doesn’t seem possible while sharing a backcourt with Jalen Green, a player with plenty of upside left to untap that the Suns would be wise to explore. That now becomes part of Booker’s responsibility, and a shoot-first two-guard isn’t a snug fit to say the least.
The large drop-off in playmaking ability from Booker to Green, and then Green to backup point guard Collin Gillespie, is a massive concern. Booker and Green have to manage that load while playing defense on the other end, by the way.
The Suns’ second-best player is either Green or Mark Williams, who has missed more games than he has played through three injury-riddled seasons so far. The wing rotation is actually fairly strong, but Dillon Brooks, Grayson Allen and Royce O’Neale are not the type of bigger wings (like Ryan Dunn) you’d want alongside that backcourt, as Phoenix will be an undersized team for the third straight year. Juggling playing time for those vets will become a chore at times.