I’m going to preface what I’m sure will be many, many words about penalties that I have no love lost for Shawn Hochuli. In fact, I’ve invoked the name “Hugo Cruz” when discussing Hochuli in the past. I want fans to remember that name because there’s often chatter about how bad officiating doesn’t have consequences. It’s rarely as obvious as Cruz who was unceremoniously fired shortly after a notorious game, but refs are reviewed and corrections made.
Back on topic, yes. I’ve called for Hochuli to be unceremoniously fired. So I don’t say this lightly. It was not a perfect game by any means, but Hochuli’s crew wasn’t out to get the Bills. Also as a procedural note, due to the volume of flags things might be a little different this week.
Standard and Advanced Metrics
Penalty Counts
The league rates for both these measures went up a notch this week. Probably from just this game. Woof. Neither team had a particularly good game this week, and right now my declaration that things were pretty even doesn’t look too well supported. As a bit of foreshadowing, when I mean “even” I usually mean “about.” Like in this metric, it’s not that it’s equal but within striking distance.
Penalty Yards
Here we have an intriguing bit of the puzzle where New England catches right up with the Bills. Despite lower flag volumes, the yardage is very close to even. The Bills negated a few more yards than the Patriots did via penalty to pull back ahead but these columns are pretty balanced.
Penalty Harm
New England Patriots
With the volume this week for both teams there wasn’t much time for clips and I won’t be running through the formula for every flag because I want you to not still be reading by the time Monday Night Football rolls around and hopefully the Bills get back on track. What I’ll focus on is the idea of Harm and how penalties impact things and for this week I want to talk results.
On the Patriots side of the ledger, with the Bills down by 10 and the offense struggling all day, the Patriots were flagged for roughing the passer and unnecessary roughness on back-to-back plays. A 30-yard swing based on the usual measures. If we add in the fact that the plays were an incomplete pass and a loss of four on a run, two negative plays turned into two big gains. Buffalo scored a touchdown on a needed drive that could have easily ended before it began.
Soon after, on 2nd & 6 an inc0mplete pass was bailed out by the Jack Gibbens defensive pass interference call. Giving up 19 yards and a free down, this flag also likely was a huge boon to Buffalo. Had the play stood, they’d have been faced with 3rd & 6. Certainly not a death knell, but with the way the game had been going it also was no guarantee that the Bills convert. This drive ended with a field goal to tie at 20.
New England landed at 10.7 Harm total, which is a tiny bit over our bad day mark of 10.0 Harm. It’s safe to say penalties had some impact on the outcome of the game, but nothing drastic.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills amassed 15 Harm total. That’s firmly on the bad day threshold, but likely not as far out of whack as you might have expected reflecting on the game. I’m going to dive into the legitimacy of Bills flags in a moment here, but first let’s go through the same exercise as we did for the Pats.
There was not a single drive where a Buffalo penalty can be said to have the same arguments like I made above. Don’t believe me? Let’s run through the Pats scoring drives.
On the Patriots’ first scoring drive (field goal) there were zero Bills flags on the drive
On the second scoring drive (field goal), there was the roughness call on linebacker Terrel Bernard that gave up a first down from second. The next play however, New England was flagged for a facemask setting up 1st & 25, which the Patriots converted without penalty assistance soon after. Cornerback Tre’Davious White’s DPI was at the tail end of the drive. If New England had more time after this flag perhaps it changes things, but they only were able to run one more play before kicking a field goal. The flag just made the kick slightly easier and we should note the Bills’ defense did stop the 1st & goal at the one play the Pats were able to try.
For their third scoring drive (touchdown) there was an illegal contact by cornerback Christian Benford, but it came on first down. It helps the opponent to give up five yards, but it’s not like gifting the other team 34 yards. A second flag occurred on the score but was declined (see below for my thoughts on one aspect of this).
On the next touchdown drive, there were zero Bills flags.
For the game-winning field goal drive, there were also zero Bills flags.
Fine Skare, you’ve convinced us. Since there was no significant benefit to the Patriots’ scoring drive thanks to Hochuli’s flag-happy crew there can’t be any intentional screw job in the books for this part of the game. But what about screwing the Bills out of their own points with offensive penalties? I did make some time to look at each of these flags on replay with the idea that if a flag is legitimate, then there’s a poor case to be had for Hochuli to have done a **** job. Here are my thoughts.
Center Connor McGovern’s holding call was 100% legit. He’s got two hands grabbing (not a flag by itself) and when the defender tries to disengage to the side to chase Josh Allen, McGovern’s actions basically turn into a tackle. Easy call.
The illegal formation (not the Shaq Thompson one which was on special teams) was super illegal, failing on two points. The right side of the line is fine with fullback Reggie Gilliam on the end of the line and wide receiver Josh Palmer out wide but off the line of scrimmage. Gilliam goes in motion leaving Palmer at the end of the formation but off the line of scrimmage. On the left side, tight ends Dawson Knox and Jackson Hawes are both on the line of scrimmage and outside the core five ineligible players.
Tight end Dalton Kincaid’s contact was brief and there’s not much on the grab, but his actions are basically a tackle and this is another easy call for offensive holding.
The false start on left tackle Dion Dawkins I don’t love or hate. He does rock a bit and I can see where it might look like the start of the play, but it’s not abrupt. New England does a great job reacting to it to draw attention.
Wide receiver Keon Coleman’s pass interference call is on Josh Allen if I’m being honest, but from what I can see in the rule book is the right call. The play starts off as a clear run by Allen and knowing that Coleman starts blocking immediately. The Patriots get quick penetration and are about to take Allen down so he flips the ball out creating a pass play. Per the rule book “Offensive pass interference rules apply from the time the ball is snapped until the ball is touched.” Even though it started as a run, once the ball is in the air the rules seem to take effect. Even if you don’t buy this explanation, the fact remains that the penalty was decline due to Khalil Shakir being tackled for a loss. The play was on third down so any of the results mean the same thing. Field goal. Also, for the exact same explanation Connor McGovern ended up ineligible downfield.
McGovern’s second holding call was a little ticky tack, but there’s a jersey tug that impacts the defenders ability to move laterally. I don’t hate the call, but I don’t like it either.
Wide receiver Khalil Shakir’s offensive pass interference is legitimate and just good eyes by the official for seeing it. Shakir starts blocking immediately with the pass being a glorified hand off. Shakir does start blocking while the ball is in the air though.
While I don’t love it because I dislike Shawn Hochuli, when it comes to outcomes the Patriots’ flags helped out the Bills more than the opposite direction. All of the offensive flags that disrupted their rhythm were real penalties too, with most being quite obvious. That said, did anyone catch Hochuli’s call for the flag declined due to the Rhamondre Stevenson touchdown? He added a lot more flourish to that call than a typical one, almost like he was happy to announce it. While I think Hochuli’s calls were mostly good for the night, it’s also true that I think he called this particular flag like a d***.
Also, I’m not remotely trying to suggest they called the game perfectly.