After starting the 2025 season 0-2, the Kansas City Chiefs got back to .500 after Week 4 but fell back to a losing record (2-3) after a stunning loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday Night Football. Given their current position (out of playoff seeding), the Chiefs need to view this upcoming matchup against the Detroit Lions as a must-win.
When the NFL schedule was released last May, the Chiefs' opening six opponents—the Chargers, Eagles, Giants, Ravens, Jaguars, and Lions—were widely viewed as a gauntlet. That stretch included four primetime matchups, a Super Bowl rematch, and even a game on another continent. Even the most optimistic Chiefs fans predicted a 5-1 record at best through Week 6.
Even though the first six weeks were already hard enough, it got more difficult when the NFL announced that wide receiver Rashee Rice would be suspended for that entire six-game stretch due to his involvement in a multi-vehicle crash in the 2024 offseason. Now, the Chiefs were without their second-best skill player for perhaps the hardest part of their schedule. It then got even worse when Xavier Worthy was injured very early in the season-opening game versus the Chargers. It wasn’t known until days after the game how much time Worthy was going to miss.
The Chiefs need to treat their Lions matchup as a must-win game.
After their Week 2 defeat at the hands of the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles, the Chiefs were without their two best pass catchers, and the Chargers continued their hot start at 2-0 compared to Kansas City’s 0-2. At that point, many fans thought their chances of winning yet another AFC West crown were dwindling, and a 3-3 start without Rashee Rice was looking like a pipe dream.
Fast forward to today: the Chiefs are 2-3, the Chargers are 3-2, and so is Denver. Neither Denver nor Los Angeles has been particularly impressive, but they’ve won more games than Kansas City. The Chiefs can still finish 3-3 and be perfectly fine in the AFC West race, and possibly even in the race for the number one seed. The Chiefs’ schedule really softens up starting in Week 7, and having a healthy Worthy and Rice will make their offense that much more difficult to stop. They’ll need their offense to play very well if they want to get back into the AFC West driver’s seat sooner rather than later.
Even if they beat Detroit on Sunday Night Football, the Chiefs will still be in a slightly vulnerable position since the Jaguars’ loss was their second AFC loss of the season, and conference record is the fourth tiebreaker for a division lead. The Lions are an NFC team, so beating them isn’t as advantageous for tiebreakers as it would be if they were in the AFC. Beating them does improve their record, of course, but does very little for the division or a better playoff seed. The Lions do not play another AFC West team this regular season, so the “common opponents” tiebreaker will not be affected by this game for the divisional race.
If Mahomes can beat Jared Goff for the first time and get the Chiefs to 3-3, they’ll be back on track and in a much better position for the AFC West crown than if they were 2-4. If they lose, they’ll be in a vulnerable position, but not an impossible hole to climb out of. Their margin for error will be slimmer, but their schedule does lighten up, and Rashee Rice is set to return in Week 7. They would also be within two games at worst of the division lead with five division games remaining, including at least one against every other team.
If the Chiefs had beaten Jacksonville last Monday, then this game wouldn’t have been as critical. But they did lose, and now this Week 6 game against an NFC powerhouse is important.