It feels like we eventually reach this point in every Jets season. Sometimes it happens late in the year. Sometimes it happens early. Usually it doesn’t happen after only five games, but here we are.
The Jets are for all intents and purposes out of the Playoff race. Yes, they will remain mathematically alive for a while, but we know how this story ends. The Jets are not going to mount a run to get back into postseason contention.
That reality once again brings the great tanking debate to the forefront. Should we be rooting for the team to make progress in a lost season with wins or for losses to improve the team’s Draft position?
I can’t tell you how to be a fan. That’s a personal decision for you to make.
I will say that the benefits of tanking are probably overstated.
The number one reason fans want to see their team lose for Draft position is in hopes of landing a franchise quarterback who will change everything.
There’s one problem with that. There isn’t really a lot in the current NFL suggesting a top pick is the way to land such a quarterback.
Let’s take a look at QBR ratings through Week 5.
Here are the top ten at the moment.
Daniel Jones
Sam Darnold
Dak Prescott
Patrick Mahomes
Lamar Jackson
Josh Allen
Jared Goff
Baker Mayfield
Matthew Stafford
Mac Jones
The top two quarterbacks through the first five weeks are Jones and Darnold. Both were free agent signings this offseason on relatively modest contracts (at least by starting quarterback standards). Jones and Darnold were former first round picks who failed on their respective original teams and are having success in new situations. The same could be said of Mac Jones. Baker Mayfield was also originally acquired by his current team as a low cost free agent after failing in multiple spots as a high Draft pick, (although he had more early flashes than the other three).
Prescott was a fourth round pick.
Goff and Stafford are both former number one overall picks who were traded for each other four years ago. Stafford had a lot of success with his initial team, but couldn’t win a Super Bowl until he went to a team with a better infrastructure. Goff was up and down with his initial team and improved his performance as he gained experience and the Lions built the infrastructure around him that they never built around Stafford.
Mahomes, Jackson, and Allen were all first round picks. None, however was selected at the top of his Draft class.
It is now a famous part of Jets lore that the team passed on Mahomes in 2017 to select safety Jamal Adams in the NFL Draft. The Jets weren’t the only team to miss out on Mahomes, though. He went tenth overall and was the second quarterback chosen in his class. Almost one-third of the league passed on him, including many quarterback needy teams.
Allen went 7th overall and was the third quarterback selected in his class (behind Mayfield and Darnold) while Jackson fell to 32nd the same year and was the fifth quarterback off the board (behind those three and Josh Rosen).
Of course there’s more that goes into it than this, and five weeks are a limited sample size. Still it’s tough not to notice the disconnect. I frequently see people claiming that the only way the Jets can land a franchise quarterback is to lose so much that they end with a top pick. Yet none of the best quarterbacks in the NFL this season were acquired by their current team with the number one pick in the Draft. In fact, you see many players on this list who were drafted highly who required a change of scenery to reach their potential because they were so mishandled by their original team.
I understand hoping for losses with some meaning. It’s easier to deal with a bad season if it serves a greater purpose such as landing a franchise-changing player.
I think we need to look at the actual results, though. The best quarterbacks in the NFL aren’t really acquired by tanking. Good quarterbacks go later in the Draft, and high picks aren’t successful if they aren’t in the right spot.
That might be worth remembering the deeper we get into the season as the great tanking debate reignites.