This week’s Thursday Night Football matchup is an NFC East showdown between the Philadelphia Eagles (4-1) and the New York Giants (1-4).
The Eagles have dominated this rivalry over the last few years, winning seven of the last eight games by an average margin of more than 18 points per game. They won 28-3 at the Meadowlands in Week 7 last year and likely would have won by more than 7 in Week 18 if they were not resting most of their starters.
Tonight’s game will be Giants rookie QB Jaxson Dart’s third career start after taking over for veteran Russell Wilson in Week 4. The Giants pulled off a huge upset over the Chargers in his debut, and they had a chance to win again last week against the Saints before three fourth-quarter turnovers (including two Dart interceptions) sunk their chances.
Despite being on the road on a short week, the Eagles are big favorites in this game at -7.5 against the spread at the best Pennsylvania sportsbooks. They should be motivated to bounce back strong from their first loss of the season last week against Denver.
Can Dart and the Giants keep this game close and give fans an entertaining primetime game? Here is my breakdown of the Thursday Night Football matchup and my Eagles vs. Giants best bets.
*Note: If you want to place any bets discussed below, claim one of thebest PA sportsbook promos before creating a new sportsbook account.
Eagles vs Giants predictions and best bets
Eagles -7.5 (-102 at Caesars)
Saquon Barkley 100+ rushing yards (+152 at FanDuel)
NOTE: Odds are based on the best value our experts find while writing; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.
The Eagles are 4-1, but everything is not sunny in the city of brotherly love. The offense has been so bad that Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley and A.J. Brown had to have a private two-hour meeting this week to try to hash things out.
There may not be a perfect remedy for a struggling offense, but if there were one, facing the Giants’ defense might be it. The Giants are 26th in total defense (377.2 yards per game), EPA* allowed per play and success rate.
They are particularly bad against the run, allowing 140 yards per game (26th) on 5.3 yards per carry (29th). They are 30th in EPA against the run, 28th in success rate, and dead last in DVOA*.
This is a perfect matchup for the Eagles to figure things out offensively. The Giants’ biggest (and maybe only) strength defensively is rushing the passer with the quartet of Dexter Lawrence, Brian Burns, Kayvon Thibodeaux, and rookie Abdul Carter. Lawrence, in particular, could be a problem for the Eagles, especially with starting LG Landon Dickerson ruled out.
Expect the Eagles to lean heavily on Barkley this week, both to exploit the Giants’ run defense and to slow down their pass rush. Barkley rushed for 176 yards on a season-high 10.4 yards per carry against his former team last season (he sat out the meaningless Week 18 game).
Barkley has struggled so far this season, which is at least partly attributable to injuries on the offensive line. If he’s going to have a breakout game, this is the week to do it, even with Dickerson out. His poor production so far also creates some nice value on his prop betting markets (could you imagine getting +152 odds on him to have 100 yards last season?).
As for my point spread betting pick, I’m simply trusting the better team to take care of business on a short week against a rookie quarterback who has had limited time to prepare. The Eagles have not lost back-to-back games against the spread since Weeks 4 and 6 of last season (with a bye week in between).
Prediction: Eagles 27, Giants 17
*DVOA and EPA are popular advanced analytical metrics that measure a team’s performance relative to league averages and adjust for factors like game situation (down and distance) and opponent strength. DVOA stands for “defense-adjusted value over average,” and EPA stands for “expected points added.”
Eagles vs. Giants moneyline odds analysis
How the Eagles can win as the favorite
Best odds:-360 at DraftKings
I covered the Eagles’ offensive advantages against the Giants’ defense above, so let’s focus on the defense.
First and foremost, the Eagles benefit from several injuries on the Giants’ offense, most notably star wide receiver Malik Nabers (ACL) and No. 2 receiver Darius Slayton (hamstring). Jaxson Dart will be relying primarily on slot receiver Wan’Dale Robinson, tight end Theo Johnson, and running back Cam Skattebo to catch his passes.
That’s an advantage for the Eagles, especially if the Giants are in a negative game script, which also should help their pass rush. They only have seven sacks so far this season, but they have a good chance to change that this week against the Giants’ suspect offensive line.
New York only has one decent offensive lineman in former All-Pro LT Andrew Thomas. They could also be without starting RT Jermaine Eluemunor (back).
As long as the Eagles can prevent the Giants’ pass rushers from completely wrecking the game, they should have no problem improving to 5-1 this week.
How the Giants can win as the underdog
Best odds:+310 at FanDuel
If the Eagles’ offense struggles the way it has so far this season, that could certainly open the door for the Giants to pull off an upset. A big key to that will be their running game, which could get a boost if Week 1 starter Tyrone Tracy Jr. returns from his two-game absence with a shoulder injury.
The Eagles are 30th in success rate against the run this season and they’re allowing 4.7 yards per carry (25th). If Skattebo and Tracy can keep the offense on schedule with successful runs on early downs, that will make life much easier for Dart.
Dart has shown flashes in his first two starts, and he has been dangerous running the ball. He’s already led the Giants to one big upset. As long as he limits the turnovers that plagued him last week, he could give the Giants enough of a spark to have a chance.
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