Patriots fans celebrated a 23-20 win over the Bills last Sunday at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y., a watershed road victory that could lead to others in the next six weeks of the season.
Patriots fans celebrated a 23-20 win over the Bills last Sunday at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y., a watershed road victory that could lead to others in the next six weeks of the season.Danielle Parhizkaran/Globe Staff
FOXBOROUGH — Talk to Morgan Moses about an easy schedule at your own peril.
Before Thursday’s practice, the veteran right tackle was asked about the perception the 2025 Patriots might have an easy schedule in recent NFL history.
“When did football become easy?” he said with a clear lever of disdain. “That’s why we play football on Sundays, Mondays and Thursdays. Look at what we did Sunday against the Bills. Nobody thought we were going to do that. The only people who thought we were going to do that were the people in the building.
“It’s not like basketball, where one person can take over a game,” he added. “Here, it takes all 53 to operate. And so people can say we have the easiest schedule. People can say those things, but at the end of the day, that’s why we play the game, right? To prove those people wrong.”
Looking at the numbers, they certainly suggest New England has an easier road ahead than most. The Patriots’ next six opponents have a combined record of 9-20, a slate that includes games against New Orleans (1-4), Cleveland (1-4), Tampa Bay (4-1), Tennessee (1-4), Atlanta (2-2), and the New York Jets (0-5).
But according to Aaron Schatz, the chief analytics officer at FTN Fantasy and creator of the statistic Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), it’s not just the next six games. Ultimately, the 2025 Patriots could end up having one of the easiest schedules in recent NFL history.
DVOA measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play over the course of a season to a league average based on that situation and opponent. (A five-yard gain on third and 4 is worth more than a five-yard gain on third and 10, for example.) The numbers are also adjusted for the quality of opponent. Expressed as a percentage, a positive DVOA indicates performance better than average, while a negative DVOA signals below-average efficiency.
“Prior to the Buffalo game, the projected 2025 schedule for the Patriots was the third-easiest since 1978 by average DVOA of opponents,” Schatz said, in a written e-mailed response. “However, last week, a number of teams on the Patriots’ schedule had bad losses, especially the Ravens. So now, their opponents average minus-17.0 percent DVOA, which would be the easiest schedule since 1978 by a wide margin. It would surpass the 1991 Bills and the 1999 Rams, who currently have the two easiest schedules since 1978.”
Center Garrett Bradbury said strength of schedule isn’t a focus, at least when it comes to locker room conversation.
“As soon as you think you figured something out or that you’ve arrived, or you’re just going to show up and be better than a team, you’re going to get embarrassed,” said Bradbury. “If we start thinking about the strength of schedule, we’re in trouble.”
Linebacker Christian Ellis has seen the evolution of many teams across the league, and said it’s premature to try and predict how successful a team might be at this stage of the season.
“We’re what, five games in? And you’re telling me you know the strength of each team perfectly? That’s a bold statement, to say the least,” said linebacker Christian Ellis.
To Ellis’s point, Schatz stresses that it’s important to remember that using strength of schedule can be a fluid exercise: bad losses, injuries, or in-season coaching changes can cause changes. For example, the Ravens (1-4) are currently struggling, but will almost certainly be better when quarterback Lamar Jackson comes back. As a result, that will make the Patriots’ schedule look harder.
Historically, almost all the teams Schatz measured since 1978 (NFL play-by-play breakdowns are only available back to that year) have reached the playoffs. The 1991 Bills, 1999 Rams, and 1979 Buccaneers all reached the conference championship game.
In terms of historical comparisons to the 2025 Patriots, Schatz points to the 1998 Cardinals as a fair model. Coming off a four-win season in 1997, Arizona rode a historically-easy schedule (fourth all-time in Schatz’s rankings earlier this month) and a talented young quarterback (Jake Plummer) to a 9-7 record and surprise playoff berth.
The Cardinals shocked the Cowboys with a 20-7 win in the wild-card round before losing in the divisional playoffs to the Vikings, 41-21.
In the end, the 2025 Patriots would welcome the chance to go from a four-win team to the postseason. But just because Arizona turned the trick 27 years ago doesn’t mean New England will be looking to Plummer and the Cardinals for inspiration.
“It comes down to details, technique, fundamentals, and coaching,” Ellis said. “For me, I don’t really look at the strength of schedule. For me, it’s whoever we play next. I treat it like it’s a Super Bowl game, like that’s how we’re going to treat this week’s game against the Saints.”
“The game isn’t easy. It’s never easy,” said Bradbury. “There’s so much parity in our league, which makes it such a good product. That’s why it’s so fun to [be] watched by so many people [who] bet on this sport.
“But no, we don’t think about strength of schedule and things like that. Those are just talking points.”
Christopher Price can be reached at christopher.price@globe.com. Follow him on Bluesky at christopherprice.bsky.social.