Broncos (3-2) at Jets (0-5)
When: 7:30 a.m. MDT Sunday
Where: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
TV/radio: NFL Network, 850 AM/94.1 FM
Broncos-Jets series: Denver’s 10-9 win over the Jets last year brought the Broncos’ series record to 22-18-1 all-time against the Jets. Interestingly, the Broncos have shut New York out three of those 41 matchups, including a 26-0 win in September 2021.
In the spotlight: It’s officially ‘Don’t Bite the Cheese’ week for Sean Payton and the Broncos.
Saints linebacker Scott Shanle remembers walking into the Saints’ facility in the early days of Sean Payton’s reign, and finding mousetraps dangling from the ceiling.
This visual aid came, of course, from mentor Bill Parcells. Don’t bite the cheese. One translation: don’t overlook an opponent. Aaron Glenn would likely recognize the metaphor, a former NFL Pro Bowler who walked the halls with Parcells in Dallas and who Payton later brought to New Orleans.
Now, all these years later, Glenn and the 0-5 New York Jets are a hefty piece of cheese for Payton’s Broncos on Sunday.
“He’s taught me a lot about being a coach,” Glenn, a first-year head coach, said Wednesday. “And listen, he’s one of the guys that – I love everything about what he is and what he’s about.
“I’m looking forward to competing against him, because I know how he is. And this’ll be a competitive battle between the both of us.”
Payton, for one, scoffed this week at the notion that trap games exist in the NFL. But every aspect of this Jets matchup should sound alarm bells around the Broncos’ hotel in the sleepy English countryside. The Broncos are coming off one of the highest possible regular-season highs, proving they can close in the Payton Era with a comeback win over last year’s Super Bowl champions in Philadelphia. They now face the only winless team remaining in the NFL — at a neutral venue, a nine-hour flight away in London, without any upcoming bye week.
And three of the Jets’ losses have come in one-score games.
“We know exactly where we’re at,” Glenn said. “We’re not hiding from that fact. Yes – we are 0-5. We understand that. And we understand we have a lot of work to do. And we’re not running from that at all.”
Cue up the clip of Admiral Ackbar shouting “It’s a trap!” in “Star Wars: Return of the Jedi.”
New York has both folded against high-quality competition — getting their “(expletive) whooped” by Buffalo 30-10 in Week 2, as Glenn put it — and battled hard against winning teams like the Steelers and Buccaneers. Either version is possible across the pond on Sunday.
On paper, the Jets’ offense profiles similarly to the Eagles: a dink-and-dunk passing attack from a mobile quarterback who avoids mistakes. The Eagles’ Jalen Hurts hadn’t thrown a pick this year entering Week 6; neither has the Jets’ Justin Fields. And New York hangs its hat on running the football, averaging the third-most yards on the ground in the NFL through five games. The Broncos executed perfectly in a Vance Joseph-designed game plan last Sunday to keep Hurts in the pocket and make him a thrower. That will be another emphasis this week against the twitchy Fields.
“What we asked him to do last week was rush together and not rush past the quarterback,” Joseph said of Broncos outside linebacker Nik Bonitto, who racked up 2.5 sacks against Philadelphia. “That is hard to do as an NFL rusher, when you have a 1-on-1 with a guy you can beat.”
Discipline from the Broncos’ front will again be incredibly important against a Jets team that can gash on the ground but can’t protect its quarterback. New York’s allowed the highest pressure rate in the NFL (over 50%) through five games. If Bonitto, Jonathon Cooper, Zach Allen and company don’t get overzealous, the Broncos could still sleepwalk into another five-sack performance.
The Jets are also plenty porous against the run, and blitz often — the fourth-highest rate in the NFL, according to Next Gen Stats — but rank in the bottom third of the league in pressure rate. If second-year quarterback Bo Nix carries forward the composure he showed in the fourth quarter against Philadelphia, he could light up the skies over Tottenham on Sunday.
“This is not a team to just toss around like they’re winless,” Nix said this week. “But I think we’ll be ready to go. It’s just another game.”
Who has the edge?
When Broncos run: Currently, the numbers paint J.K. Dobbins as a top-five running back in the NFL. Several voices in the Broncos’ locker room have spoken up that this offense flows better when they run the ball well — and early — and Payton turned back to Dobbins again as an opener and closer last week in a 79-yard, 20-carry performance. The numbers also paint the Jets as a bad run defense (24th out of 32 teams in rushing yards per game allowed). But Quinnen Williams is an All-Pro monster in the middle of New York’s defensive line, and the Broncos could sorely miss left guard Ben Powers in this one. Slight edge: Broncos
When Broncos pass: Sauce Gardner is one of the only cornerbacks in the NFL who can hold a candle to Pat Surtain II. He’s forced a tight throwing window on 50% of his targets this year, according to NFL’s Next Gen Stats. That’s second only to Surtain. Gardner will make life difficult on Courtland Sutton, who’s off to one of the best starts of his eight-year career. But Sutton handled Eagles stud Quinyon Mitchell just fine last week, and a fantastic Broncos pass-blocking line is going up against a weak Jets pass-rush. Edge: Broncos
When Jets run: The game might tilt here. Running back Breece Hall is averaging 5.3 yards a carry despite an inconsistent offensive start, and Fields is a threat to tuck and go at any moment. The Eagles, for some reason, decided to only give Saquon Barkley six carries last week, but teams have had success gashing Denver up the middle this year. It’s doubtful Glenn goes away from that in London. Edge: Even
When Jets pass: Less than a quarter of Justin Fields’ attempts this year have come more than 10 yards downfield. The Broncos need to figure out a way to not stick Alex Singleton in one-on-one coverage against Hall, though, after Barkley toasted him on a wheel route in Philadelphia. Hall’s a great receiver out of the backfield, and Garrett Wilson has dominated man coverage this season. Wilson, though, will have to take on the NFL Defensive Player of the Year. Edge: Broncos
Special teams: How about Jeremy Crawshaw? Reports of his preseason rookie demise were greatly exaggerated. Crawshaw ranks second among all NFL punters through five weeks in the percentage of punts downed inside the 20 (62.5%). Kicker Wil Lutz nailed a 55-yarder last week, too, and Darren Rizzi’s unit has temporarily stabilized itself. They’ll face a special-teams unit in New York’s that nearly beat Tampa Bay on a blocked-field-goal return for a touchdown. 41-year-old Nick Folk is 9-of-9 on field goals this year, too. Edge: Even
Coaching: Aaron Glenn was once Sean Payton’s secondary coach in New Orleans, and Payton called him a “tremendous coach” this week. He is a coach, however, who only has five games under his belt. Payton just passed Parcells with 173 career NFL victories. Edge: Broncos
Tale of the tape
|Broncos|Jets|
|---|---|---|
|Total offense|355.2 (10th)|319.4 (20th)|
|Rush offense|140.6 (4th)|144.4 (3rd)|
|Pass offense|214.6 (15th)|175.0 (28th)|
|Points per game|23.4 (18th)|22.4 (19th)|
|Total defense|288.6 (5th)|347.4 (22nd)|
|Run defense|88.4 (5th)|140.4 (27th)|
|Pass defense|200.2 (8th)|207.0 (13th)|
|Points allowed|16.8 (2nd)|31.4 (31st)|
By the numbers
7: Sacks the Jets’ defense has recorded through five games. Also, the number of sacks Broncos OLB Nik Bonitto has recorded this season.
7: Touchdowns that New York has given up in Cover 0 (no deep safety) this season, most in the NFL.
7.0: Average yards per passing play that New York has given up this season, fifth-highest in the NFL.
17: Rushing yards that Vance Joseph’s Broncos defense has given up on quarterback-scramble attempts, the lowest in the NFL.
6.6: Jets quarterback Justin Fields’ average yards-per-attempt on carries this season.
90%: Jets receiver Garrett Wilson’s catch rate this year against man coverage.
X-factors
Broncos: CB Pat Surtain II. Kind of dumb to call the Broncos’ best player an X-factor, but a lot will ride Sunday on his matchup with Garrett Wilson. New York has no other consistent option in the passing game: Their next-highest producing wideout is Tyler Johnson with 63 yards in four games. Surtain matches up frequently in man-to-man, and Wilson’s burned man-to-man so far this season. Grab your popcorn.
Jets: TE Mason Taylor. One highly-touted rookie tight end already burned Vance Joseph’s defense this year, as Tyler Warren showed out in the Colts’ Week 2 win over the Broncos. Taylor will likely be heavily involved Sunday, as he’s already racked up 20 catches in five games and could pose matchup issues for Denver over the middle of the field. Expect his number to get called often with Surtain checking Wilson, too.
Post predictions
Parker Gabriel, Broncos writer: Broncos 27, Jets 13.
If this game were in Denver or even New Jersey, it’d have the trappings of a trap game. Instead, Sean Payton’s had the distinct privilege of sequestering his team away at a castle-esque outpost in Ware — where?! — a town well north of London proper. The group has had nothing to do but football. They’ll have had no choice but to get the message loud and clear. Plus, one of Payton’s biggest strengths the past two years has been having Denver ready to beat opponents it should beat. This is one of those games. If the Broncos keep Breece Hall bottled up and run the football well themselves, this should be a nice stroll through St. James Park.
Luca Evans, Broncos writer: Broncos 34, Jets 17
After watching the tape back from Philadelphia, it seems Bo Nix has found something. It seems Sean Payton has found something, too, with his running game. The pieces are set to perfectly align in London against a Jets defense that blitzes all the time but struggles to properly pressure. This could shape up as one of the cleaner and better games of Nix’s young NFL tenure. Joseph’s pass-rush might experience a bit of fatigue after running the same containment game plan two weeks in a row, but this should still be a blowout. Thinking the Jets score a couple times early and once in garbage time.
Troy Renck, Broncos writer: Broncos 27, Jets 10
If the Broncos cannot beat the Jets after knocking off the undefeated Eagles, there is no reason to come back home. The Jets stink. Every fringe fan will be cheering for the Broncos. And they will have reason to get loud as J.K. Dobbins continues chewing up yards and spitting out defenders, freeing up Bo Nix for gash plays on bootlegs. Justin Fields will not be as lucky. Look for Broncos’ defense to produce five sacks, including two for Nik Bonitto, as Broncos continue a trend from last season of smashing the NFL’s dregs.
Sean Keeler, Broncos writer: Broncos 26, Jets 20.
Trap game in cloudy London? Nah. Losing Ben Powers dings Sean Payton’s new ground-and-pound mojo, but probably only a little. Meanwhile, Justin Fields is running for his life and hanging on to his NFL future by a pinkie finger. The Jets rank seventh in opponent sack rate allowed, which plays right into the hands of the NFL’s best pass rush like (British) beans on toast. The only opponent more dangerous than a defending Super Bowl champ is an NFL roster that hasn’t won a game after a month of trying. Unless, of course, that team is the Jets.
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