What’s the tougher task in the NFL? Moving on from a gut-wrenching defeat or a hysteria-inducing victory?
Sunday’s Seahawks game at Jacksonville will serve as an interesting test case.
The Seahawks could hardly have felt more deflated than they did last Sunday when a late deflected interception led to a last-play Tampa Bay field goal and a 38-35 loss on a day when quarterback Sam Darnold threw four touchdown passes.
A day later, the Jaguars got maybe their biggest win since the 2022 season with a 31-28 Monday night comeback win over the Kansas City Chiefs that left fans in EverBank Stadium cheering long after the game ended.
Defensive tackle Jarran Reed insisted the Seahawks have reacted to the Tampa Bay game the right way — learning from mistakes, especially on the defensive side of the ball, but not dwelling on them.
“We’re very motivated,” Reed said Thursday. “It was good to get back to work and work the kinks out from the last game that we had. We’re not just forgetting about it, but we’re ready for this week, and I think we’re ready to go.”
The Jaguars will hope they stopped the celebration fast enough.
Let’s take a closer look at the matchup:
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Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars
When, where: 10 a.m., Sunday, EverBank Stadium.
TV: FOX, Chris Myers (play-by-play), Mark Schlereth (analyst), Sarah Kustok (sidelines).
Most recent game in series: The teams last met on Oct. 31, 2021 in Seattle when the Seahawks emerged with a 31-7 victory in Geno Smith’s first win as a starting quarterback for the Seahawks. They last played in Jacksonville in 2017, a 30-24 loss.
Point spread: Jaguars by one (via VegasInsider).
Key injuries: The Seahawks ruled cornerbacks Devon Witherspoon (knee) and Riq Woolen (concussion) and safety Julian Love (hamstring) as doubtful and rush end Derick Hall and offensive lineman Josh Jones as out Friday. That means the Seahawks will again be short-handed in the secondary with Ty Okada likely again getting a start at safety and Nehemiah Pritchett, Derion Kendrick and Shaquill Griffin getting time at corner.
For Jacksonville, center Robert Hainsey (hamstring) is doubtful. If Hainsey can’t play, it is expected he’ll be replaced by rookie Jonah Monheim, a seventh-round pick out of USC who has played just 19 snaps.
Last week’s games: The Seahawks fell to 3-2 with a 38-35 last-play loss to Tampa Bay. Jacksonville improved to 4-1 by beating the Kansas Chiefs 31-28 on Monday night.
The big story: Can the Seahawks get off the mat and show last week was just a blip?
If they can, then the opportunity is there to move into at least a tie for first in the NFC West as the 49ers play at Tampa Bay as three-point underdogs.
They need the defense to get back to playing as it did the first four weeks of the season, regardless of whether a few starters may be missing.
Coach Mike Macdonald pointed a lot of the blame at himself for a game plan last week he didn’t feel gave his players their best chance to win after the Seahawks allowed the second-most points of his tenure.
It will be interesting to see what Macdonald comes up with to stop the Jags, especially a rushing attack that ranks fifth in the NFL at 137 yards per game, led by Travis Etienne with 443 yards and 5.8 per carry.
Key matchup
Seahawks receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. Jacksonville cornerback Travis Hunter.
The Jags figure to make it a team effort to try to contain Smith-Njigba, who is second in the NFL in receiving yards with 534 on 34 receptions.
But Hunter, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, figures to get his shots at JSN. Hunter is playing receiver and cornerback — he has 198 offensive snaps, 126 on defense.
Of those defensive snaps, 118 have come as a wide corner. According to Pro Football Focus, Hunter has the 19th best grade or any cornerback, having allowed seven receptions on 10 targets for 78 yards and no TDs with one pass breakup.
Key player: Running back Kenneth Walker III.
The Jaguars are sure to use Etienne and an offensive line that has played well to try to chew up the clock — the Jags ranks ninth in time of possession at 31:12 per game while the Seahawks are 26th at 28:03.
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One way the Seahawks can counter is getting the running game going. It came to life the last two weeks with a combined 277 yards against the Cardinals and Bucs, and a season-high 6.1 yards per carry against Tampa Bay.
Walker has been the leader of that effort, staying healthy and starting all five games and ranking 10th in the NFL in rushing with 330 yards.
Key stat: Turnovers.
No team has been better than the Jaguars at forcing turnovers. Jacksonville has 14 — four more than any other team (the Steelers with 10). That includes a league-high 10 interceptions and four fumble recoveries. The Jags have lost six for a plus-eight differential that also leads the league.
The Seahawks are at minus-one, forcing seven — which his tied for eighth (all interceptions) — and losing eight, which is tied for the fourth most (three interceptions and five lost fumbles, the latter of which is tied for the third most).
The Seahawks won both games in which they had one or fewer turnovers but lost two of three games in which it has had two — both defeats decided on turnovers in the final minute. The Seahawks have scored just three points off turnovers but seen opponents score 27 off their giveaways.
Those trends can’t continue.
Three other things to watch
Can the Seahawks overcome injuries in their secondary?
This entry is becoming a broken record. But once again the Seahawks enter a game with some marks about their secondary with Love, Witherspoon and Woolen all doubtful. That’s three of the team’s starting four players in its base secondary. They have not had its full secondary since the first series of the opener against the 49ers but survived it to get to 3-1.
The secondary injury issues caught up to the Seahawks against Tampa Bay. We’ll see if Macdonald has a plan to better mitigate them against the Jags.
Can the Seahawks get pressure off the edge?
The Seahawks are tied for 12th with 13 sacks despite blitzing at the lowest rate in the NFL, 13.7% according to Pro Football Reference.
So the pass rush has hardly been bad. But of late their best rushes have often been from the interior with the pressure from the edge at the time lacking. That was especially true on a few of Baker Mayfield’s long passes in the second half of the Bucs game.
Only 2.5 of the Seahawks’ sacks have come from an edge player — all by Uchenna Nwosu. Hall will be out, but Lawrence will be back. Lawrence, Nwosu, Boye Mafe and Mike Morris, who again figures to see significant snaps, need to make Lawrence uncomfortable.
Can the Seahawks keep their road luck going?
The Seahawks’ longest trip of the season — 2,443 air miles, according to the team — will be another test of the team’s road success under Macdonald. They are 9-1 on the road since he arrived, have won a franchise-record eight consecutive and are 11-1 in its last 12 road games overall. The Seahawks are also 20-5 in their last 25 10 a.m. PST starts.
Prediction
Seahawks 27, Jags 23.
Jacksonville is one of the surprise teams in the NFL and the Seahawks are stepping into what figures to be a fevered environment Sunday. And the secondary issues are concerning. But it’s worth wondering if the Jags will have a letdown. Many of the basic stats favor the Seahawks.
Bob Condotta: bcondotta@seattletimes.com. Bob Condotta is a sports reporter at The Seattle Times who primarily covers the Seahawks but also dabbles in other sports. He has worked at The Times since 2002, reporting on University of Washington Husky football and basketball for his first 10 years at the paper before switching to the Seahawks in 2013.