The Green Bay Packers entered their bye week with a 40-40 tie in Dallas, and at the center of it was what might have been the worst defensive performance of the Jeff Hafley era. It’s nothing that should be cause for alarm, but it did highlight for the first time how Hafley’s staple third-down coverages are susceptible to being beaten.
Through the first four games of 2025, the defense has surrendered just three explosive pass plays of 20+ yards. But all three of those came in the week four game.
Dak Prescott finished 12/14 for 162 yards and one touchdown under pressure. He took some hits, but was only sacked one time. Micah Parsons had six pressures and the only sack, and while the pressures were largely ineffective, it’s sort of poetic that Parsons’s sack was what preserved the tie as Prescott had an open lane to the end zone if not for Parsons. The Cowboys ended up just kicking a field goal a couple of plays later.
But beyond that, the defense might very well have played its worst game under Jeff Hafley since he took over. The defense gave up three explosive pass plays of 20+ yards or more and three explosive run plays of 10+ yards or more. They gave up another handful of pass plays in the 15-20 yard range and a handful of running plays in the 7-9 yard range as well. Today, we’re just going to look at the three explosive passes.
First play
In the first play here, Prescott hit a 1-on-1 deep ball to George Pickens down the left sideline for a gain of 28 yards.
The Cowboys isolate Nate Hobbs to the single receiver side and align in a 4x1 formation to the right, running a 4-strong spacing concept.
This pulls the strength of the Packers’ defense to the four receiver side, but the rotation post-snap is 5-man pressure cover-3 (3-deep/3-under zone).
With Hobbs in single coverage on Pickens, Prescott confirms the coverage and throws the alert-go route down the sideline. Hobbs doesn’t get a good jam at the snap and is chasing the entire rep. Evan Williams covers the middle of the field and numbers and actually hits Pickens just after the ball arrives. Had Williams been able to align in the middle of the field, he might have broken up the pass but since the formation strength pulled him away, there was never a chance he could get there in time with how the Packers align in cover-3 versus this type of formation.
Second play
In overtime, the Cowboys moved the ball with ease on the defense, hitting two explosive pass plays. The second pass they hit was a bit of luck, catching the Packers defense gasping for air. But on the first pass, they hit, they took advantage of a common defensive call on third down.
The defense is showing cover-3 or a possible blitz/pressure with man coverage. The post snap reveals cover-2 invert, which we have covered here extensively since Hafley took over.
The Cowboys are running a three verticals concept called “989” where the “9” routes are go routes, and the “8” route is a middle read concept that can either be a skinny post route against two deep coverage or a dig route versus single high coverage.
(Previously in the game)
On a previous play in the 4th quarter, the defense showed the same alignment before rotating to cover-2 invert, and Prescott ended up checking it down.
The defense presented the same alignment before spinning the coverage to cover-2 invert.
Prescott saw the pre-snap alignment again and audibled the play to a more favorable concept to beat the coverage, betting that in a similar down and distance, the Packers would rotate again to 2-invert. He guessed right.
As the corner bailed diagonally to the deep half in between the numbers and hash and away from the sideline, Pickens got open on the vertical to the single receiver side, and Prescott dropped it in before the coverage could get to it.
Third play
On the crucial play in overtime, the Cowboys called the same “989” concept again. This time, the Packers defense had the outside routes covered up, playing cover-3, while the inside post route was wide open.
Pressure forced Prescott to escape the pocket, though; otherwise, he would have likely hit the throw over the middle for a big gain. Keisean Nixon was the outside corner covering Jalen Tolbert. When Prescott escaped, the offense went into scramble drill mode.
Tolbert slipped, and Nixon let up. But Tolbert quickly got up and presented himself as a target working back down to the throw 34 yards away. Prescott launched it rolling to his right, and Tolbert came up with the toe drag catch on the sideline while Nixon could only helplessly watch.
Final thoughts
While the defense has only given up three explosive pass plays thus far, it is slightly alarming to have given them all up in one game. One thing worth watching will be how Jeff Hafley adjusts the presentation of the coverage rotation on third and long passing situations. It appears the Cowboys might have unlocked a potential weakness. Not every team will be able to take advantage of it, but it is on tape now, and teams will try. We’ll see how the Packers adjust.