Before we get to talking about tonight’s game, let’s get two of the ESPN ‘storylines’ behind us
No. 1 - Last year’s Hail Mary play
The key word’s in that sub-titles are “last year’s”. As Jayden Daniels so eloquently put it earlier this week, “That Hail Mary isn’t going to help us win a game on Monday.“
Okay. That’s behind us.
No. 2 - Caleb vs Jayden
The Bears fans are the only ones who are filled with angst here because it was the Bears who had the choice to make. Bears fans, of course, fear that their team chose the wrong guy and so, twist themselves around in a constant battle to reassure themselves that Caleb was, in fact the right choice.
Washington fans are perfectly happy with the outcome of the draft, and, for the most part, are happy to cheer for Caleb’s success whenever he isn’t playing against the Commanders. He is, after all, a hometown kid from Gonzaga high school in DC.
There’s room in the NFL for each to achieve his potential as professional players.
No. 3 - The Ben Johnson affair last year
This is less of an issue because, unlike the Hail Mary and the draft, this simply didn’t matter.
National and most local beat reporters got out over their skis during the coaching search last year by declaring that (a) Ben Johnson was the top candidate, and (b) Washington was the most attractive head coaching opening. A lot of people drew a conclusion and reported it daily as if it were a fact — that is, that BJ was at the top of Adam Peters’ list in the coaching search.
I’m here to suggest that no one making those reports had a clue about what Adam Peters was thinking.
Remember all those reports about the Laremy Tunsil trade in the days and weeks before it happened? No, I don’t either because the front office didn’t leak a hint that it was in the works. It was a complete surprise — so much so that a lot of people later commented that they didn’t realize that Tunsil was even available for trade.
Remember how natural it seemed when Brandon Coleman was benched recently in favor of Chris Paul? Yeah — again, me neither. Despite all the discussion of a re-worked offensive line at the time, everyone was talking about the right guard position, and no one had a clue that there would be a change at the left guard position until it was announced by the team.
The same pattern held true with the Terry McLaurin contract situation this offseason. LOTS of “reporting”, including one national ‘insider’ who stated that the two sides were far apart — making that final report about an hour before the new contract agreement was announced by Terry’s agent. They were all guessing.
Speaking of McLaurin, he’s about to miss his 3rd game due to injury, and I don’t think anyone outside the team even knows what his injury is, aside from the fact that it’s somewhere between his belly button and his ankle. I’ve heard speculation about a hip flexor and sports hernia, while the team’s official report says it’s a quad. No one in the Commanders organization is rushing to clarify the situation.
Other injury situations seem equally opaque. You wouldn’t want to be betting money on dates for returns from injury for Commanders players, including players like Sam Cosmi and Noah Brown, based on reporting from local and national sports writers.
So, if nobody knows about trades, starting lineup changes and injuries to players, why would I believe that any of them had any insight into the coaching search being carried out by Adam Peters last year?
The only guy that had any credibility with me last year was ESPN’s John Keim, and that’s because he’s an old-school journalist who only reports based on multiple reliable sources or firsthand knowledge. Keim said daily, weekly, and consistently during the head coaching search in 2024 that he didn’t personally know who would get hired, but that his understanding was that Ben Johnson was not necessarily at the top of the list, and that the two names he (Keim) kept hearing were Raheem Morris and Dan Quinn.
Personally, I think Ben Johnson “withdrew” from a process when the Commanders and Seahawks were the only teams left because the Seahawks had already decided on Mike McDonald and Johnson knew he wouldn’t get the job with Washington. He attempted a gutless and transparent move aimed at saving face in the classic “you can’t fire me because I quit” message when he notified the Commanders brass at the literal last minute that he would not meet with them for a final interview because he had decided to remain with the Lions. I’ll never be able to prove the truth of my belief because Adam Peters is never gonna say another word about that hiring process. We might as well nickname Washington’s GM ‘the Sphinx’ based on the amount of information that leaks from his organization. — which is how it should be.
Okay, with the ESPN narratives out of the way, let’s focus on Bears & Commanders football
Series history
These two teams have a long history of competition that dates back to a 7-7 tie in the burgundy & gold’s first year of existence as an NFL team, back when they were known as the Boston Braves.
The Washington / Chicago rivalry has been played out on the field 54 times (including 7 postseason games), with Washington winning 28 games and the Chicago Bears winning 25 games. They have also, as mentioned, tied one time.
2025 is the 4th consecutive year the two teams have played, with Washington winning 2 out of 3 from ‘22 to ‘24.
Washington leads 9-2 since 2004; the burgundy & gold have a 9-4 in this century.
The Redskins closed out the 20th century by winning 6 straight, and 8 of 9 between ‘87 & ‘99.
The Redskins and Bears played each other in 4 league championship games, splitting 2-2
They also played each other in 3 NFC playoff games, with Washington winning 2 out of 3.
Both teams competed regularly for championships in the late 30s and 40s. Both were consistent playoff teams in the 80s and early 90s. Both have had sporadic success this century (Chicago more so than Washington) amidst a lot of losing seasons, with neither team winning a playoff game between 2011 and 2023.
Washington has enjoyed more immediate success since the 2024 draft, but both fan bases feel a sense of optimism that comes with new coaching staffs and exciting young quarterbacks.
Washington went on the road to Los Angeles and came home with a victory that not many NFL fans predicted, 27-10 over the Chargers. It was not a perfect game by the Commanders, but it was the first time in the 2025 season when the offense and defense looked. for significant chunks of the game, like the team that won 2 playoff games against two division winning teams in January.
The Bears enjoyed a BYE week, but they went into it riding a 2-game winning streak (after opening the season 0-2).
Common opponents
The Commanders will have to play, at some point in the 2025 season, every team that the Bears played in the first four weeks of the season, but the only one that both the Bears and Commanders have already faced is the Las Vegas Raiders.
The Bears beat the Raiders in Week 4, just before going on their bye week. Chicago closed out that 25-24 win with a blocked 54-yard field goal attempt with about 30 seconds left in the game.
Washington had beaten the Raiders a week earlier, with Marcus Mariota at quarterback, by a score of 41-24.
Running the ball
Based on a few basic metrics, it seems like an obvious game plan would be for the Commanders to plan on running the ball a lot on Monday night.
The Commanders lead the NFL in rushing yards per game and yards per attempt. Unlike last season, the rushing success is not due to Jayden Daniels’ scrambling; rather, it is based on strong rushing performances by all of the Commanders’ running backs, but especially Bill Croskey-Merritt, who, so far, has averaged 6.6 yards per carry on 43 carries.
The Bears defense ranks 31st in rushing yards allowed per game and dead-last in yards per attempt allowed to opposing runners, at 6.1 ypc. Chicago will be without DL Grady Jarrett on Monday night, which won’t’ make it any easier for the Bears defense to improve on this season-long trend.
When the Bears are on offense, they rank 24th in rushing yards. The Commanders defense is ranked 12th against the run.
The passing game
On offense, Chicago ranks 13th in passing yards per game; Washington ranks 25th. Caleb Williams averages 7.1 yards per attempt; Jayden Daniels averages 6.8.
Defensively, the Bears give up 215 yards per game while the Commanders have given up 235 yards per game.
The Commanders will be without their top receiver, Terry McLaurin, for the 3rd straight game. Likewise, Noah Brown, another top receiver for Washington, will miss is 4th consecutive game. Their absences will only magnify the difficulty of producing more in the passing game than they have to date against a statistically better-than-average Bears pass defense.
The numbers that seem to favor the Bears in the passing game extend to sack numbers (Jayden, 8 sacks in 3 games; Caleb, 7 sacks in 4 games), but not interceptions (Jaydan, 0 INTs; Caleb, 2 INTs in 4 games).
Chicago is succeeding at doing what Joe Whitt and Dan Quinn say they are always striving for: forcing turnovers. The Bears defense has forced 9 turnovers in 4 games (2.25 per game avg), and the Bears have a +5 margin on the year.
The Commanders defense has forced just 3 turnovers on the season, and the offense has given away 3 turnovers (2 charged to Marcus Mariota in his two starts).
Washington can make it much harder for the Bears to win tonight by taking care of the ball on offense — one of Jayden Daniels’ strengths — and forcing one or more turnovers when playing defense. That will require breaking the trends established in the first 4 or 5 games of the season.
Washington
With a win, the Commanders will achieve the same 4-2 overall record as the Eagles, but would take at least temporary possession of 1st place by virtue of being undefeated in division play, while Philly lost to the Giants on Sunday.
A Washington loss would leave the Commanders in second place in the division at 3-3.
With the Cowboys up next on Washington’s schedule in Week 7, a loss against the Bear wouldn’t be catastrophic by any means, but a win tonight sets up a situation where the Commanders could remain in first place in the East and open a 2.5-game lead over the Cowboys in the division by putting together back-to-back victories vs Chicago and Dallas.
A loss on Monday night would drive the Bears further into last place in the NFC North and mire them at the bottom of the NFC with the 5 other teams with 2 or fewer wins, leaving them with a big hole to dig out of, but a surprising opportunity with the Saints, Ravens, and Bengals on tap in Weeks 7 to 9. What appeared to be a brutal pair of games back in August now looks like part of a very winnable set of games for Chicago.
A win tonight, then, would keep the Bears competitive in the NFC North at 3-2, just a half-game behind the Packers, with a 3- or 4-game stretch in front of them that provide the opportunity to build some mid-season momentum before resuming divisional play against the Vikings in Week 11.
The point spread
Fan Duel has the Commanders as 5.5- point favorites. The Bears look vulnerable in the run game (on both offense and defense) and the Bears’ opponents in their two wins (Cowboys and Raiders) sport a combined record of 4-7-1, and a combined point differential of -56 for the season.
I thought Bears fans might see this as a bit of slap in the face to a team on a 2-game win streak coming off a bye week, but I listened to a Bears beat writer on a podcast this week who said that he thought Chicago’s ceiling was likely to be 8 wins — maybe 9 if they got lucky with Lamar Jackson’s injury in two weeks. He scoffed at the idea that the Bears would be a playoff team this year.
In the end, the Commanders are a year further along on their rebuil…er recalibration, and the Commanders are at home and coming off a good win against the Chargers. Most importantly, Jayden Daniels is healthy and has a career record of 16-7 as an NFL starting QB. There’s a lot for Commanders fans to be confident about heading into tonight’s game.
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