The Bills and Falcons meet up this week on Monday Night Football in Atlanta. The Falcons are coming off their bye week and looking to stay in the race in the NFC South, while the Bills are looking to bounce back from a disappointing loss to the Patriots on Sunday night of week 5. Here is a breakdown of the top NFL DFS picks and top bets for tonight’s game:
Buffalo Bills (-4) at Atlanta Falcons – 50
Captain: Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo ($17,100)
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen yells after his team won 41-40 in the final seconds against the Baltimore Ravens at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen yells after his team won 41-40 in the final seconds against the Baltimore Ravens at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park – Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Life can be really simple sometimes. If you are trying to cash in Showdown, slotting Josh Allen in the Captain spot is a great way to do so. He has the highest floor/ceiling combination in the game, but there is merit to fading him in the Captain spot for large field tournaments. The Falcons’ defense has been really good this year, limiting fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, but two of their games have come against JJ McCarthy and Marcus Mariota. With a small spread and Atlanta at home, the chance for Allen to have a ceiling game is pretty high.
Contrarian Captain Consideration: Michael Penix Jr, QB, Atlanta ($13,500)
Flex: Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta ($11,200)
Jan 5, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7) runs for a touchdown against the Carolina Panthers during the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images
Bijan Robinson is well on his way to a historic year. The floor is tremendous as he’s caught 3+ receptions in every game. I expect him to get as many touches as he can handle tonight as the Falcons try to pull the upset in a marquee matchup. The vulture Tyler Allgeier lurks, but if Atlanta is in this game in the 4th quarter, Bijan will have had a major impact.
Flex: Khalil Shakir, WR, Buffalo ($7,600)
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) jumps in to celebrate with Buffalo Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir (10) after his 13 yard touchdown catch.
Spin the wheel on which receiver will get into the endzone for the Bills. Shakir, Coleman, and Kincaid are all priced within $400 of each other, and choosing the right one will determine the slate. Shakir is tied for the lead on the team in targets, but the key factor I like for tonight is that he leads the team in redzone targets. Other
Flex Considerations: James Cook, RB, Buffalo ($10,200)Drake London, WR, Atlanta ($9,200)Michael Penix, QB, Atlanta ($9,000)Keon Coleman, WR, Buffalo ($7,800)Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo ($7,600)Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta ($5,800)
Bargain Bin Flex: Casey Washington, WR, Atlanta ($1,000)
Sep 28, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Casey Washington (82) on the field during the game against the Washington Commanders at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images
Washington is going to be a popular punt play tonight. He was already receiving a ton of snaps, and now the Falcons will be without Darnell Mooney. He doesn’t have to do much to pay this price tag off. In the two games he’s played, he’s been targeted nine times. He’s $1,800 cheaper than McCloud, and whichever receiver 3+ passes will be in the optimal lineup.
Bargain Bin Flex Considerations: Matt Prater, K, Buffalo ($5,000)Parker Romo, K, Atlanta ($4,800)Tyler Allgaier, RB, Atlanta ($4,400)Joshua Palmer, WR, Buffalo ($3,000)Ray-Ray McCloud, WR, Atlanta ($2,800)Dawson Knox, TE, Buffalo ($1,600)David Sills, WR, Atlanta ($200)
Best Bets for MNF Week 6
Buffalo Bills running back James Cook dives for a touchdown against the Kansas City Chiefs
Jan 26, 2025; Kansas City, MO, USA; Buffalo Bills running back James Cook (4) dives for a touchdown against the Kansas City Chiefs during the second half in the AFC Championship game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images | Denny Medley-Imagn Images
Final Score: Buffalo 31, Atlanta 20
The Bills are coming off the tough loss against the Patriots, where they failed to score 30 points for the first time this season. I like Allen and company to come out and pick apart an overrated Falcons defense. Buffalo covers the spread with the total going over.
PrizePicks:
Sep 28, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7) celebrates after scoring a touchdown during the first half against the Washington Commanders at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images
Josh Allen OVER 34.5 Rushing Yards
Casey Washington OVER 26.5 Receiving YardsKhalil Shakir OVER 4.5 Receptions
Bijan Robinson OVER 30.5 Receiving Yards
Check out bold predictions for tonight’s game: https://lists.thebiglead.com/sports/nfl-bold-predictions-for-monday-night-football-bills-vs-falcons-week-6/
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